ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[DioBrando]

If the southern center is taking over, I could see the probs increase dramatically. And, if we remember from 12 years ago, things can go kaboom in a hurry...

not to mention that same name returns this year

[Frank P]

Latest HR Euro shows the northern low as the dominant low, moving over SW LA Sabine Pass area in about 10 hours as a 1006 mb low... I’m thinking the more southern low will become the dominate one... find out soon enough..

[Craters]

Not sure if this took a sudden dive to the south out of radar range, or if it just fell apart.

I'm guessing the former -- it sure doesn't look like it's falling apart on the satellite presentation.

[TheProfessor]

It was mentioned early, but the models have been hinting at this storm doing a loop. 12z Euro seems to loop some of the energy back into the gulf.

[facemane]

I don't see how this system has enough time to even get close to TD status even considering the favorable conditions.

Climatology,stalling,or slow movement are among the factors this time of year. Never take your eye off a gulf system over water in late August

[Nimbus]

CAPE ridge feeding this is now up to 6000.
That's about as high as it gets.
Massive anticyclone has developed over this.

Levi put the second (potential) LLC right near the middle of the building high pressure dome.
No more dry air issues from shear, so I'm becoming concerned this area won't just go poof after the diurnal max.

[Cpv17]

It was mentioned early, but the models have been hinting at this storm doing a loop. 12z Euro seems to loop some of the energy back into the gulf.

Yeah it just sits out in the central GOM for a few days and slowly meanders westward.

[GCANE]

Might be shifting east.
Looks like a big-ass tower just fired off.
Seeing a 4500 CAPE Ridge south of it feeding into this.

[Aric Dunn]

seabreeze's kicked in and have stopped the westerly inflow temporarily. that should not be an issue in a few hours.

[underthwx]

Will 90L , and the bulk of its moisture remain off the Texas coast?

[Frank P]

Might be shifting east.
Looks like a big-ass tower just fired off.
Seeing a 4500 CAPE Ridge south of it feeding into this.

Sat loops do suggest a subtle eastern shift/motion

[GCANE]

Based on the LL Infeeds and Towers firing off, this maybe the area.

[SoupBone]

Will 90L , and the bulk of its moisture remain off the Texas coast?

Well I can tell you North Houston is hot, no rain, nothing. It's partly cloudy here.

[Steve]

First couple showers about to rotate in
https://www.weather.gov/lix/

[GCANE]

Alll that prolonged convection warmed the mid-layer enough to create an inversion.
Result is a drop off in convection.
However, towers firing off in the area extrapolated to be the center of the LL convergence.
In other words, it maybe tightening up.

[Frank P]

Long run sat loops looks like a motion off to the NE has begun... system has been forecast most of the week to eventually go off to the north and east after it got in the NW Gulf, then kind of hug the NGOM coast.... no one predicted even an invest for this system so it’s already an overachiever!

[tropicwatch]

The 850mb vorticity map now depicting some vorticity more offshore.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

[Aric Dunn]

have to wait for the seabreezes to die later then some real consolidation will take place.. it was close earlier until the seabreezes.

[GCANE]

All the latent heat created by the wide-area long-duration convection obviously has entrained into the 500mb vort.
Based on where I am seeing the convection persist to fire.
Looks like we have a well defined warm core.

[GCANE]

Well defined vortical hot towers starting their dance.