ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

that is a nice curved convective band developing right around the center.

probably end up being a hurricane sooner rather than later..

[wxman57]

Small storms like this can strengthen more quickly, given a proper environment, but they can weaken just as quickly. I still don't think there will be much left of it after it enters the Caribbean.

[Visioen]

I say nice development first and then Caribbean graveyard

[AtlanticWind]

I think it could weaken in the eastern carribean, but it could be a hurricane as it crosses the islands .

[Hammy]

Seems like a tough intensity forecast. The global models all weaken TD 5 as it enters the carribean and that's
hard to discount. On the other hand ships and Hwrf are more aggressive . On top of that small systems
are more sensitive to small variations in the environment.

Best bet is to throw out the HWRF. It's gotten a few hits (Danny in 2015) but it tends to overdevelop everything and when conditions aren't favorable, it's always the last to figure out--also in 2015 it continued redeveloping Erika for two days of runs after the rest of the models figured out it wasn't happening, if I recall.

[jconsor]

I think a scenario in between that shown by the NHC and wxman57 is most likely- similar to the ECMWF and UKMET, but with more strengthening in the next 72 hours. Then weakening in the NE Caribbean, with future survival likely dependent on it tracking north of Hispaniola. A track south of Hispaniola would run the TC into unfavorable upper level winds on the south side of the TUTT low for a long enough time that dissipation would be the most likely scenario.

The ECMWF moves the TUTT low in advance of the TC out of the way faster this run (and tilts it more negative so shear is more from the S-SE vs SW), and if it didn't show the TC running into Hispaniola, it would likely survive, albeit in a weaker form.

[Visioen]

It's fun to follow that's for sure.

Currently convection still being pushed west by shear, but new convection keeps appearing near the center. As shear lessens to 5 kt it will be able to improve more imo.

[BYG Jacob]

Edit: the NHC did now upload a lil map. Forecast to become (Dorian?) tomorrow.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/144923_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Hate to say it, but that track looks like Maria part 2

[1900hurricane]

I'm feeling bearish on this one personally. I think much of its development can be tied to a stronger than average monsoon trough. It's leaving that feature now, meaning it'll have to generate and maintain convection on its own. I'm not sure how well it'll be able to do that considering the high mid-level heights, indicative of sinking air. Maybe it'll be reinvigorated once the sun goes down.

[DioBrando]

Edit: the NHC did now upload a lil map. Forecast to become (Dorian?) tomorrow.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/144923_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Hate to say it, but that track looks like Maria part 2

which is why I hope it gets sheared or run into dry air before anything like that happens

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zEuro is about 20miles from being a nightmare scenario for Florida as the area north of Hispaniola has low shear at least on the GFS so this may have a real chance if it goes north of Hispaniola but intensity and track are still a question whether it goes south of Hispaniola, goes over it or north of it as the only way I see strengthening is if it goes north of Hispaniola

[psyclone]

Edit: the NHC did now upload a lil map. Forecast to become (Dorian?) tomorrow.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/144923_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Hate to say it, but that track looks like Maria part 2

Fortunately for every memorable Maria there are many more forgettable non events. The odds favor this one being the latter. Let's channel Avila to throw a bucket of cold water on that intensity forecast

[NDG]

I posted the latest Euro ensembles on the model thread, that model went from not showing much 36-48 hours ago to fairly aggressive all the sudden, talking about being bipolar

[Sciencerocks]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/2310/EX28rg.gif

To its credit, TD5 does look pretty well organized right now.

[BYG Jacob]

Edit: the NHC did now upload a lil map. Forecast to become (Dorian?) tomorrow.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/144923_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Hate to say it, but that track looks like Maria part 2

Fortunately for every memorable Maria there are many more forgettable non events. The odds favor this one being the latter. Let's channel Avila to throw a bucket of cold water on that intensity forecast

I didn’t mention intensity, I mentioned track.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

My guess the NHC wants to err on the side of caution especially for the islands, small and large, since the track brings it across many of them. P.S. The 12Z GFS is running now, though the 6Z run had it heading directly for the Carolinas (not via Florida) as a weak system...

It's still early...

Everything I'm looking at says dissipation as it enters the Caribbean. Stewart is generally very aggressive on upgrading systems and with intensification. I would never trust the HWRF for anything. It just hasn't proven to be very reliable. Still forecasting it to dissipate once it crosses into the Caribbean. I think you'll see future NHC forecasts inching the intensity forecast downward.

I agree with you about NHC's forecast being too bullish, but not only has HWRF proven to be reliable in past years, it's /the/ most reliable intensity model according to NHC verification statistics.

[SFLcane]

If this clears Hispaniola look out!

[Evil Jeremy]

If this clears Hispaniola look out!

Judging by the 12z Euro ensembles, I think Dorian got kind of ticked off at Southern Florida S2Kers for picking on 98L's "landfall" yesterday, and now big brother is on the way as backup.

[DioBrando]

IT JUST GOT NAMED


AAAAHHHH