ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank2]

I'm happy - had a tooth pulled on Thursday and evacuating would make things worse.

P.S. Yesterday was the 27th anniversary for Andrew. I evacuated for that one (found half the roof gone when I returned). Evacuated for Wilma in 2005 (had to stay away for 10 days due to a power and water outage) so not eager to go through it again, older and minus one tooth...

[Florida1118]

Big change in the new HWRF - peak wind 46 kts No more hurricane. I have it peaking at 49 kts and dissipating before reaching the DR.

I thought you would “never trust the HWRF for anything”?

[AutoPenalti]

Not surprised that they have backed out on intensity, background state is not conducive for intensification.

[wxman57]

Big change in the new HWRF - peak wind 46 kts No more hurricane. I have it peaking at 49 kts and dissipating before reaching the DR.

I thought you would “never trust the HWRF for anything”?

Correct. When it drops the intensity forecast from 90+ kts to 49 kts in a couple runs, it proves it cannot be trusted. That was my point.

[Ivanhater]

Same posters and same models that said Dorian wouldn't even be here remember? No storms in August. Even if Dorian doesn't turn into a cat 5, it shows the lid is coming off

[Aric Dunn]

So the convection building on the east side of the circulation ( for the first time) in the outer bands is much less sheared from the east now and is an indication the dry air is not being pulled in as much likely because of the lower easterly shear.

Let see how it respond to this today.

[PTrackerLA]

Dorian looks like it won't help the post season 2019 intensity forecast metrics, looks likely this won't become a hurricane which makes yesterday's initial forecast even more bizarre.

[DioBrando]

Same posters and same models that said Dorian wouldn't even be here remember? No storms in August. Even if Dorian doesn't turn into a cat 5, it shows the lid is coming off

True, and an MDR system too.

[Highteeld]

Not as blob-ish as it was a few hours ago.

[LarryWx]

For those of us near the coast not wanting to deal with the risk of a hurricane hit, overall model guidance trends are quite encouraging. However, it is too soon to celebrate as the model consensus could still be wrong like it was for genesis outside of the GFS and it doesn’t seem to be falling apart at least yet. The tiny size makes it harder to predict than normal for the models.

[Visioen]

So the convection building on the east side of the circulation ( for the first time) in the outer bands is much less sheared from the east now and is an indication the dry air is not being pulled in as much likely because of the lower easterly shear.

Let see how it respond to this today.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shrZ.GIF

I agree.
Like I said before I think this will ramp up (strong TS or hurr) then die fairly quickly. Air to it's west is drier than to it's east meaning the west shear will hurt more.

[SFLcane]

Big change in the new HWRF - peak wind 46 kts No more hurricane. I have it peaking at 49 kts and dissipating before reaching the DR.

It does not dissipate it emerges north of Haiti as a moderate TS.

[crownweather]

Not as blob-ish as it was a few hours ago.

https://i.imgur.com/PkJkVQ4.png

I love the 4-panel display. Is there a link that I can bookmark to have this to look at?

[Aric Dunn]

The long convective band on the east side is filling in more and more. shear is dropping. The next 24 to 36 hours will be key.

The center pretty much completely surrounded by outer convection bands. lighter shear typically equals less dry air being pullled in.

[wxman57]

Same posters and same models that said Dorian wouldn't even be here remember? No storms in August. Even if Dorian doesn't turn into a cat 5, it shows the lid is coming off

True, and an MDR system too.

A struggling MDR system, just as precited.

[NDG]

Sypnotic surveillance flights starting tomorrow will help with intensity forecast and track.

[drezee]

Sypnotic surveillance flights starting tomorrow will help with intensity forecast and track.

They take off in less than 2 hours...

[NDG]

12z Soundings from the Guadeloupe and Trinidad & Tobago show one heck of a dry atmosphere with a double cap ahead of Dorian, if the LLC speeds up over the next 24-48 hours ahead of its own moisture envelope and catches up to this dry air, game over for it. Which is I think is the reason why the last runs of the Euro and GFS show it not gaining much further strength and eventually weakening.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like its about to pop.. low levels filling in and shear is way down.

[NDG]

Sypnotic surveillance flights starting tomorrow will help with intensity forecast and track.

They take off in less than 2 hours...

That's even better