ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

I dont think we are going to see much of a WNW turn anytime soon.. ridging is building NW of it at least in the short term. And from the progression of the steering looks like it might go south of Hispaniola. which of course is less favorable. Models are likely going to shift south more.

[Highteeld]

#TropicalStormBlob

[Aric Dunn]

the surrounding convective bands have created a nice barrier from the dry air now. the core is starting to build very deep hot tower firing off on the northern quad with moderate convection filling everywhere now.

[Nimbus]

the surrounding convective bands have created a nice barrier from the dry air now. the core is starting to build very deep hot tower firing off on the northern quad with moderate convection filling everywhere now.

Starting to gain latitude as it does that, I'm still thinking this will track over the Mona passage then just north of Hispaniola. We might get lucky and it will take the high mountain route.

[Highteeld]

Pink convection now firing over the core.

[DioBrando]

Pink convection now firing over the core.

https://i.imgur.com/5ywgrZt.png

what does that mean for dory

[Aric Dunn]

Pink convection now firing over the core.

https://i.imgur.com/5ywgrZt.png

what does that mean for dory

means its deepening and dry and shear is decreasing.

[Highteeld]

Pink convection now firing over the core.

https://i.imgur.com/5ywgrZt.png

what does that mean for dory

Cooling cloud tops signify stronger convection/thunderstorms. Good sign of core-building if these areas of elevated convection persist.

[Aric Dunn]

That tower is rotating around the center.. and the latest frame is -85C ! very deep.

and the low levels on the south quad are starting to really thicken.. expect even more deep convection

[GeneratorPower]

I’ve been watching the spiral band on the south/southeast side. It wasn’t there this morning but after daylight broke it started to form and is looking better now.

[tolakram]

SLIDER live visible

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=15268&y=8337

[Aric Dunn]

And here we go... just exploding.

[tolakram]

Here's the latest shear analysis from CIMSS



source: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

[psyclone]

Definitely looking a little less convectively skimpy at this point. It's gonna put up a fight.

[tolakram]

If you look at the latest visible loop (posted above) you can see the twist of the LLC to MLC column. Pretty darn cool, and also displays how small the center is, looks more like a large tornado.

[Ian2401]

lots of helicity with this convective burst

[tolakram]

Floater now over Dorian

SLIDER
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=968&y=979

COD
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[BYG Jacob]

Same posters and same models that said Dorian wouldn't even be here remember? No storms in August. Even if Dorian doesn't turn into a cat 5, it shows the lid is coming off

True, and an MDR system too.

A struggling MDR system, just as precited.

Because of shear and dry air, which is not static.

[Aric Dunn]

Floater now over Dorian

SLIDER
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=968&y=979

COD
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

I just wish the COD floaters would have zoom...

[Visioen]

Needs to try and keep generating convection if it is to take advantage of its good structure.

Prerequisite fulfilled.