ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ian2401]

I honestly think this is a hurricane looking at the structure and eye on the shortwaveIR

giving me Beryl flashbacks

[Highteeld]

CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR DORIAN (05L) 2019
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 08252011
SATCON: MSLP = 998 hPa MSW = 53 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 50.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 63 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 100 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 1010 hPa 39 knots Scene: CDO Date: AUG252050
CIMSS AMSU: 992 hPa 64 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 08252011
ATMS: 999.0 hPa 62.3 knots Date: 08251721
SSMIS: 999.0 hPa 62.3 knots Date: 08251721

[Highteeld]

Stark change in satellite appearance in the last 12 hours

[Aric Dunn]

yeah 8pm advisory will likely be 60mph.

[AubreyStorm]

CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR DORIAN (05L) 2019
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 08252011
SATCON: MSLP = 998 hPa MSW = 53 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 50.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 63 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 100 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 1010 hPa 39 knots Scene: CDO Date: AUG252050
CIMSS AMSU: 992 hPa 64 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 08252011
ATMS: 999.0 hPa 62.3 knots Date: 08251721
SSMIS: 999.0 hPa 62.3 knots Date: 08251721

Another upgrade..?

[Aric Dunn]

Does the gulfstream have radar on it ?

Also I know in the past they have flown high altitude passes to drop dropsondes in the center. So maybe at the end of the mission they will do a pass.

[Visioen]

Are these going to Dorian? Or what are they... I'm confused

[Aric Dunn]

Are these going to Dorian? Or what are they... I'm confused

https://i.imgur.com/9ndjsy5.png

they are just getting in position. base of operations. they will fly in the morning.

[Ubuntwo]

Are these going to Dorian? Or what are they... I'm confused

https://i.imgur.com/9ndjsy5.png

They're being moved for flights tomorrow and further on.

[Hurricaneman]

Are these going to Dorian? Or what are they... I'm confused

https://i.imgur.com/9ndjsy5.png

They’re sampling the upper air data to plug into the models, either the models are going to stay as is or this could be a bigger or smaller threat depends on the wind shear profiles they find

[Visioen]

Are these going to Dorian? Or what are they... I'm confused

https://i.imgur.com/9ndjsy5.png

They’re sampling the upper air data to plug into the models, either the models are going to stay as is or this could be a bigger or smaller threat depends on the wind shear profiles they find

I think you're talking about this one

[Highteeld]

RAW ADT increasing

2019AUG25 202021 2.6 1011.6 37.0 2.6 2.8 2.9 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -54.55 -55.04 UNIFRM N/A -2.3 11.37 53.92 FCST GOES16 28.0
2019AUG25 205021 2.7 1010.4 39.0 2.7 2.8 3.3 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -67.40 -55.80 UNIFRM N/A -2.3 11.49 54.17 FCST GOES16 27.8
2019AUG25 212021 2.7 1010.4 39.0 2.7 2.9 3.4 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -68.18 -56.42 UNIFRM N/A -2.3 11.51 54.27 FCST GOES16 27.8
2019AUG25 215021 2.8 1009.2 41.0 2.8 3.0 3.4 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -65.54 -57.49 UNIFRM N/A -2.3 11.53 54.38 FCST GOES16 27.7
2019AUG25 222021 2.8 1009.2 41.0 2.8 3.1 3.6 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -66.40 -59.51 UNIFRM N/A -2.3 11.54 54.48 FCST GOES16 27.6

[Aric Dunn]

The notch on the NE side is rather interesting..

[Aric Dunn]

latest microwave.. nice beginnings of an eyewall.

[AtlanticWind]

Still not much banding with Dorian

[Aric Dunn]

Still not much banding with Dorian

well considering the environment. It is likely going to be annular

[ouragans]

Very very conservative...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 54.8W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

[Aric Dunn]

Very very conservative...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 54.8W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

yeah that is pretty conservative considering all the satellite-derived estimates they went off of earlier all went up 10 plus kts.


side note.. the CDO is staying very symmetrical now. shear still dropping.

[ouragans]

Am I the only one having difficulties to obtain Recon data ? Nothing is displayed on Tropical Tidbits or Tropicalatlantic

[HDGator]

Am I the only one having difficulties to obtain Recon data ? Nothing is displayed on Tropical Tidbits or Tropicalatlantic

Recon into the storm is not scheduled until tomorrow. There's a NOAA9 plane sampling upper air around the storm right now with dropsondes.
They show up on the Tropical Tidbits page. The flight is still in progress.