ATL: DORIAN - Models

[TheProfessor]

The Bahamas have to have good conditions because even the Euro and GFS that dissipate the storm try to regenerate once in the Bahamas. I'm keeping my eye on this one because of the Ukmet which does not dissipate and ramps up after Hispaniola. Ukmet occasionally sniffs things out before the others follow

The same UKMET that blew up Barry in the Gulf?

The Ukmet's problems with Barry went well beyond just over intensifying him. It held on the the stronger ridge for far too long, which caused it to send the storm towards the central Texas coast. Although a stronger Barry was going to end up further west in that set up, because the UK had Barry over water longer it kind of fed into its over intensification.

[Nimbus]

https://i.imgur.com/OdNTIN3.gif
18z HWRF... The universe is back in balance and we can all relax, the HWRF is back where is needs to be blowing up into a Major Hurricane, j/k of course...

Headed over Nassau and will miss Miami by at least 50 miles.
Recurve before the Carolinas?

The GFS builds the Bermuda High ridge westward over the Carolinas and into the SE US days 5-7. So if the HWRF run went out further don’t think it would head towards the Carolinas. 150 hours GFS 500mb pressure anomalies below:

https://i.postimg.cc/KY6WCDqN/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-26.png

We have had a weakness off the east coast a majority of the time but a strong hurricane might amplify the ridging so its too bad Dorian didn't stay weak a little longer.

[Aric Dunn]

little farther north and still a TS heading towards SE Hispaniola.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

little farther north and still a TS heading towards SE Hispaniola.

Which model are you referring to?

[Kingarabian]

little farther north and still a TS heading towards SE Hispaniola.

Which model are you referring to?

Probably the 18z Euro, which is not too far off from the 12z Euro.

[Aric Dunn]

little farther north and still a TS heading towards SE Hispaniola.

Which model are you referring to?

Probably the 18z Euro, which is not too far off from the 12z Euro.

position is not far off. just slightly farther NE. the big difference is it is still TS. 12z was an open wave at the same position.

[gatorcane]

Slight right shift with the 00Z guidance that came in and intensity guidance has inched upward as well as a result (likely skewed by the HWRF):

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Which model are you referring to?

Probably the 18z Euro, which is not too far off from the 12z Euro.

position is not far off. just slightly farther NE. the big difference is it is still TS. 12z was an open wave at the same position.

Thanks for sharing, 00z ECMWF should show something similar then.

[NDG]

NHC could shift the track to the right closer to the TVCN.

[gatorcane]

NHC to the left of TVCN but I think they may only slightly nudge it east and wait for 00Z guidance later to see if we really have a trend or if it just the last cycle.

[AubreyStorm]

18Z NAVY same track as the past several runs. But it has been consistently wrong before in these same situations.Takes this through Southern Florida into GOM:

First landfall:
https://i.postimg.cc/pLD5DWNL/nvg10-sfc10m-150-go-mex.gif

Second:
https://i.postimg.cc/HnyQJFQG/nvg10-sfc10m-210-go-mex.gif

Hi! Please send the link

Thanks!

[Frank2]

NHC to the left of TVCN but I think they may only slightly nudge it east and wait for 00Z guidance later to see if we really have a trend or if it just the last cycle.

Let's not forget the movement of 98L and the pattern that is still there - many have Dorian on a simialr NNW track east of Florida...

[ronjon]

https://i.imgur.com/OdNTIN3.gif
18z HWRF... The universe is back in balance and we can all relax, the HWRF is back where is needs to be blowing up into a Major Hurricane, j/k of course...

Headed over Nassau and will miss Miami by at least 50 miles.
Recurve before the Carolinas?

Yeah and into WPB and W-NW across Florida. I'm not liking the synoptic set up on this one with 500 mb ridging setting up in the SW Atlantic blocking any recurve.

[CaneCurious]

18Z NAVY same track as the past several runs. But it has been consistently wrong before in these same situations.Takes this through Southern Florida into GOM:

First landfall:
https://i.postimg.cc/pLD5DWNL/nvg10-sfc10m-150-go-mex.gif

Second:
https://i.postimg.cc/HnyQJFQG/nvg10-sfc10m-210-go-mex.gif

Well isn’t that lovely. Thank goodness it’s early.

[USTropics]

12z ensemble spaghetti plots for ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET:

[Highteeld]

....... * ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DORIAN AL052019 08/26/19 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 60 64 70 74 76 75 73 73 73 75
V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 60 64 70 74 76 75 73 49 44 46
V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 57 61 70 80 85 86 84 55 48 56
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 5 0 3 6 0 6 7 12 14 15 5 3 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 0 0 1 0 -2 -1 -4 -5 -1 -3 -1
SHEAR DIR 174 132 29 49 56 314 255 267 242 280 235 319 47
SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.1 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.2
POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 149 151 149 152 154 151 154 155 154 160 154
ADJ. POT. INT. 143 145 149 151 149 151 151 147 148 147 144 149 141
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 -54.2
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 11 10 12 11 12 12 12 11 12
700-500 MB RH 39 41 43 43 44 49 48 48 47 49 54 57 60
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 11 9 8 7 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 14 9 8 11 7 7 12 14 13 -1 -1 -30 -42
200 MB DIV -9 0 -7 -9 -6 25 24 21 5 -17 -3 10 15
700-850 TADV -5 -2 0 1 0 1 1 2 5 4 3 8 0
LAND (KM) 617 565 463 363 289 313 444 250 99 31 -70 21 133
LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.6 14.7 15.8 17.1 18.1 19.0 20.0 21.2
LONG(DEG W) 54.7 55.9 57.0 58.1 59.3 61.3 63.3 65.4 67.3 69.1 70.8 72.3 73.6
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 8 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 24 34 49 53 38 44 44 51 83 90 59 52 50

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 11. 12. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2.
PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 15. 19. 25. 29. 31. 30. 28. 28. 28. 30.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.6 54.7

** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/26/19 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 14.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.98 7.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 1.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 6.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 2.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 2.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 3.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 401.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.52 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.6 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 15.9% 49.7% 37.9% 31.7% 19.9% 44.0% 39.7% 37.2%
Logistic: 13.3% 40.2% 40.6% 39.6% 17.4% 37.4% 22.1% 22.6%
Bayesian: 3.1% 20.9% 34.2% 2.6% 0.9% 13.3% 2.3% 0.7%
Consensus: 10.8% 36.9% 37.6% 24.6% 12.7% 31.6% 21.4% 20.2%
DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0%

[northjaxpro]

The latest guidance model runs are growing.more and more concerning for Florida one week out. Ridging will likely be in place and if Dorian can skirt by or traverse north of Hispaniola that will potentially be with big implications with a potential formidable tropical cyclone approaching from the southeast.

[toad strangler]

The latest guidance model runs are growing.more and more concerrning for Florida one week out. Ridging will likely be in place and if Dorian can skirt by or traverse north of Hispaniola that will potentially be with big implcations with a potential formidable tropical cyclone approaching from the southeast.

11PM disco kinda pours cold water on this plausible idea. For now. Referencing global model output of the ULL forecast to be near Hispaniola and dry air.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The latest guidance model runs are growing.more and more concerrning for Florida one week out. Ridging will likely be in place and if Dorian can skirt by or traverse north of Hispaniola that will potentially be with big implcations with a potential formidable tropical cyclone approaching from the southeast.

11PM disco kinda pours cold water on this plausible idea. For now. Referencing global model output of the ULL forecast to be near Hispaniola and dry air.

They're talking about how the ULL could potentially kill Dorian before it reaches Hispaniola as per the GFS/ECMWF, not after it reaches Hispaniola/reaches the Bahamas (if it ever does).

[northjaxpro]

We shall see,

I am not liking what I am seeing right now.with the models. I hope things changes in upcoming runs for sure.