ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Well at least tomorrow we will have radar.

[gatorcane]

You can see Dorian continues to fight the dry wedge of air to the west (dark color):

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like 3rd convective boost is starting. lets see if this will be enough

[Kingarabian]

You can see Dorian continues to fight the dry wedge of air to the west (dark color):

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/4nCVgwHJ/goes16-wv-mid-catl-201908252045.jpg[url]

Hot towers continue to go off near the COC but remain fragmented and unable to expand and so it's been hard for it to maintain a deep CDO.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1165794971481456641

[GeneratorPower]

The interesting thing about this storm is it already has a well defined core. Has for a while now. So many storms we track struggle to gain a well defined LLC.

[Homie J]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1165794971481456641

So how strong would that indicate? I'm not the greatest with reading wind barbs.

[1900hurricane]

TXNT28 KNES 260021
TCSNTL

A. 05L (DORIAN)

B. 26/0000Z

C. 11.5N

D. 54.4W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/WINDSAT

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A CENTRAL COLD COVER ATTM
BUT 7/10 BANDING WAS INFERRED IN A SSMIS PASS FROM 2219Z, WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A DT OF 3.0. MET IS 3.0 BUT PT IS 3.5 BASED ON EYE-LIKE FEATURE
APPEARING IN THE 2146Z WINDSAT IMAGE. FT IS BASED ON PT BECAUSE BANDING
FEATURES COULD NOT BE DISCERNED IN THE CURRENT EIR IMAGERY.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

25/2146Z 11.5N 54.0W WINDSAT


...TURK

That's an odd fix. Never seen a pattern number assessed on a microwave image rather than the given IR image. Technically that shouldn't even be allowable under strict adherence to the Dvorak Technique.

[CrazyC83]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1165794971481456641

So how strong would that indicate? I'm not the greatest with reading wind barbs.

Strongest wind barb is 35 kt, but the resolution is very low. The current NHC estimate is probably reasonable.

[Blown Away]

I attempted to draw the 00z TVCN Consensus line (NHC seems to follow this consensus line closely) compared to the 5pm NHC line... They flattened the line from 11am to 5pm, but didn't move it much north over Hispaniola, so I think at 11pm we will see a track inched N with less Hispaniola interaction and will that change intensity forecast???

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The interesting thing about this storm is it already has a well defined core. Has for a while now. So many storms we track struggle to gain a well defined LLC.

Usually because they're trucking at like 30 knots due west due to incredibly fast trade winds and can't close off properly.

[Aric Dunn]

an actual curved band has developed NW to SE around the center. looks like the vorticity has transferred up through the column more.

[Ian2401]

The interesting thing about this storm is it already has a well defined core. Has for a while now. So many storms we track struggle to gain a well defined LLC.

Usually because they're trucking at like 30 knots due west due to incredibly fast trade winds and can't close off properly.

i think its small size is helping that a lot. small storms can ramp up and die down very quickly. has been a champ so far with the dry air tho so far lol all things considered.

[1900hurricane]

The average tropical storm force wind radius more than doubled between 18Z and 00Z, partially due to the system being assessed stronger and having TS wind radii in all four quadrants now. Regardless, TIKE more than doubled at 00Z, despite now being around 1.5 TS Days. Of course when I say doubled, 00Z IKE is still only barely over 2 TJ, so Dorian is still a very small system, although you probably didn't need me to tell you that.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1165794971481456641

So how strong would that indicate? I'm not the greatest with reading wind barbs.

Strongest wind barb is 35 kt, but the resolution is very low. The current NHC estimate is probably reasonable.

Less than ASCAT right? Or are they about the same?

[Blown Away]

Historical Aug/Sept tracks within 75 miles of the NHC 5 day point for Dorian... GOM is a real possibility after raking the entire Caribbean...

[AtlanticWind]

Wonder if the NHC. Is considering a hurricane watch for some of the islands in case of a ramp up.

[TheAustinMan]

AMSU pressure estimate continues to fall and is now estimating a central pressure of 991 mbar based on the properties of Dorian's warm core. Such pressures for a storm of Dorian's size are typically indicative of a strong tropical storm or low-end hurricane. Would be very interested in a high-resolution GMI/AMSR2 microwave pass of Dorian given it already looks quite a bit different than it did just two hours ago with a new burst of convection.

[toad strangler]

https://i.imgur.com/1RDuyZR.jpg
Historical Aug/Sept tracks within 75 miles of the NHC 5 day point for Dorian... GOM is a real possibility after raking the entire Caribbean...

ha Jeanne is on there

[Evil Jeremy]

If the South/East Florida scenario were to play out, impact looks to be next Sunday, a week from today. If I get off work tomorrow and models are holding steady, I'm getting my basic supplies. Not getting caught off guard. Hopefully not, but if there were to be madness in anticipation of a Hurricane here, it would be kicking in around Wednesday.