ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Evil Jeremy]

The 11pm Discussion is about half the length of the 5pm discussion. There's just not much new to add right now. Both the 11am and 5pm discussions included "However, the large range of possibilities also includes both Dorian going north of Hispaniola and remaining a hurricane and the small cyclone dissipating completely over the island", and this discussion reminds you that "that there is greater than usual uncertainty associated with this forecast".

And there is a lot of uncertainty now that should be clarified over the next 48 hours as we see how conditions in the NE Caribbean play out.

[toad strangler]

We shall see,

I am not liking what I am seeing right now.with the models. I hope things changes in upcoming runs for sure.

Well it’s certainly not the globals that concern you I would think. You looking at HWRF, NAVGEM?

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS is slightly stronger entering the Caribbean than the 18z

[TheProfessor]

Latest Icon takes a weak system through Puerto Rico then later has a strong ts/ weak hurricane entering the Gulf.

[WeatherEmperor]

Latest Icon takes a weak system through Puerto Rico then later has a strong ts/ weak hurricane entering the Gulf.

Here is a closeup of the ICON as you mention. Here it hits the FL keys as Cat 1 maybe?




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[blp]

GFS 54hrs stronger and more north than 18z. Have a bad feeling about this run.

[Blown Away]

GFS 54hrs stronger and more north than 18z. Have a bad feeling about this run.

Feeling the shear and/or dry air once in Caribbean... But definitely more defined up to 54 hours than previous runs..

[toad strangler]

Heading right for The Dominican cheese grater and weakening at 78 hours on the GFS

[blp]

72hrs stronger but ready to crash into Hispaniola.

[Hurricaneman]

Right through Hispaniola at 84, cant survive that

[toad strangler]

Ooooof right into the center of the island.

[Blown Away]

GFS still sees weakness nearing big islands even with a very shallow Dorian at that time, so if Dorian is stronger than GFS predicts a deeper system may be more right of track and miss Hispaniola??

[Hurricaneman]

GFS still sees weakness nearing big islands even with a very shallow Dorian at that time, so if Dorian is stronger than GFS predicts it may be more right of track and mid Hispaniola??

The 0zGFS is weakening this to 1007mb in 6 hrs which in itself is probably going to be way wrong, it’s strengthening not weakening so its erroneous based on that alone it seems

[Blown Away]

Low appears to be trying to pull together after Hispaniola... Not seen in earlier GFS runs...

[Hurricaneman]

Low appears to be trying to pull together after Hispaniola... Not seen in earlier GFS runs...

Also looks to still be a tiny system

[toad strangler]

Somehow the 0z GFS ejects weak and minuscule vorticity at 108 hours to the NW after slamming the island.

[blp]

Ridge building in. This could redevelop on this run.

[toad strangler]

Ridge building in. This could redevelop on this run.

Yes. It makes no sense but that’s what the 0z GFS is doing.

[Blown Away]

Dorian making a comeback in SE Bahamas... Seeing better conditions... The interaction with Hispaniola the big player...

[bamajammer4eva]

Somehow the 0z GFS ejects weak and minuscule vorticity at 108 hours to the NW after slamming the island.

Funny-chances of Dorian surviving Hispaniola are slim. its known as s the shredder for a reason If it misses it...Maybe