ATL: DORIAN - Models

[blp]

Dorian making a comeback in SE Bahamas... Seeing better conditions... The interaction with Hispaniola the big player...

Agreed huge player. Looks like land interaction is major inhibitor.

[toad strangler]

Dorian making a comeback in SE Bahamas... Seeing better conditions... The interaction with Hispaniola the big player...

Agreed huge player. Looks like land interaction is major inhibitor.

That was a direct hit on Hispaniola. Climo says goodnight when that happens. Perhaps she is weak enough going in to wiggle through. But, that should be a death blow verbatim

[Blown Away]

Dorian seems close the low after Hispaniola and goes into SF maybe as a depression/TS... Pretty significant change from previous dissipation runs...

Significantly better vorticity approaching FL...

[blp]

He is back. Take a look at this trend last 4 runs.

[toad strangler]

Weak low into S Fl looking to eject into the GOM at 162 hrs

[Blown Away]

Weak low into S Fl looking to eject into the GOM at 162 hrs

Yeah, but clearly conditions improve in Bahamas per GFS, so if Dorian goes 75 miles right of track near Hispaniola then no cheese shredder...

[WeatherEmperor]

.....The 0Z Ukmet just came out. Text output shows “strong” which is usually hurricane intensity.....




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[blp]

Ukmet further north into the Florida straights.

00z UKMET
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 11.5N 54.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 26.08.2019 11.5N 54.8W WEAK

12UTC 26.08.2019 12.2N 56.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 27.08.2019 13.0N 58.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 27.08.2019 13.9N 60.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 28.08.2019 15.3N 62.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.08.2019 16.3N 64.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 29.08.2019 17.8N 65.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 29.08.2019 19.4N 67.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 30.08.2019 20.7N 69.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.08.2019 21.7N 71.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 31.08.2019 22.7N 73.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.08.2019 23.3N 76.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.09.2019 23.9N 79.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

[Blown Away]

NHC becoming the outlier to the left over Hispaniola

[toad strangler]

Weak low into S Fl looking to eject into the GOM at 162 hrs

Yeah, but clearly conditions improve in Bahamas per GFS, so if Dorian goes 75 miles right of track near Hispaniola then no cheese shredder...

Crazy run. Wanna see ensembles. What I take is this is the 1st ounce of recent global support. Growing concern (slightly) that a miss to the N would be a problem for FL.

[toad strangler]

UKIE much further N at the islands but keeps that W bend down the line. Still overall further N. Another morsel from the big 3

[USTropics]

00z operational UKMET plots:

Code: Select all

 00UTC 26.08.2019  11.5N  54.8W     WEAK
 12UTC 26.08.2019  12.2N  56.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 27.08.2019  13.0N  58.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 27.08.2019  13.9N  60.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 28.08.2019  15.3N  62.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 28.08.2019  16.3N  64.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 29.08.2019  17.8N  65.7W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 29.08.2019  19.4N  67.4W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 30.08.2019  20.7N  69.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 30.08.2019  21.7N  71.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 31.08.2019  22.7N  73.9W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 31.08.2019  23.3N  76.7W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 01.09.2019  23.9N  79.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

[blp]

Key takeaway is anymore northward shifts in the GFS and Euro that avoid Hispaniola and watch out. It does not look like dry air nor shear will be significant enough alone to disrupt in the Caribbean and conditions in the Bahamas look very good.

[USTropics]

00z ICON animated run shifts slightly north:

[blp]

CMC further north and weaker because of the land interaction with Hispañola but redevelops and goes through Cuba then Florida Straights. So good concenseus building as we wait for the Euro.

[sma10]

00z operational UKMET plots:
https://i.imgur.com/LmjKeBN.jpg

Code: Select all

 00UTC 26.08.2019  11.5N  54.8W     WEAK
 12UTC 26.08.2019  12.2N  56.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 27.08.2019  13.0N  58.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 27.08.2019  13.9N  60.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 28.08.2019  15.3N  62.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 28.08.2019  16.3N  64.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 29.08.2019  17.8N  65.7W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 29.08.2019  19.4N  67.4W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 30.08.2019  20.7N  69.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 30.08.2019  21.7N  71.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 31.08.2019  22.7N  73.9W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 31.08.2019  23.3N  76.7W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 01.09.2019  23.9N  79.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

Ukmet depicting the thankfully rare, yet most nightmarish historical track. Still 7 days away tho

[WeatherEmperor]

So far through 96hrs, euro keeps it alive north of Hispanola now




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[sma10]

Yeesh, we went from really no consensus to the beginnings of a trend fairly quickly. Really impossible to tell what strength Dorian would have, even if the track verified. Call me VERY cynical of these tracks - I have seen many a storm get sucked into that large island

[WeatherEmperor]

I think most posters are asleep already. Euro has a TS turning back W at 120hrs. Have a feeling this run will end up very bad for someone.....




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[WeatherEmperor]

Heading WNW toward Palm Beach county it looks like? Just off shore as a TS




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