ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Microwave images appear to show a partial eyewall.

https://imgur.com/qE7LAqr

AL, 05, 201908261020, 30, WSAT, C, , 1200N, 5680W, , 2, , , , 3, , , , , , , , , , , , 3, , , , NHC, SRS, , , , , , , , , WSAT, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 3, pbo partial 75pct eyewall in 37GHz data

(From https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/fix/fal052019.dat)

Yeah looks like 50 percent the entire northern semi circle.

[northjaxpro]

The larger this becomes, the more it can filter out the dry air by creating a moisture pocket. NHC forecasted Dorian to become a hurricane by Thursday afternoon.

This will happen way sooner than that based on what I am seeing right now.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1165960462607011840

[Highteeld]

Northern extend of the tropical storm force wind field has greatly expanded:

NHC will likely go 55 or 60 knots for 11 AM. Given Stewart is on shift, might go for 60, as he is probably the most aggressive senior hurricane specialist there.

[Highteeld]

To me, the biggest development overnight is the notable shift in modeling to the NE down the road. More models seem to suggest Dorian could cross over the eastern end of the island of Hispanola - or miss it entirely. As you can see from the topographical map here, that isn't where the biggest, most-disruptive mountains are located. In other words, a difference of maybe 50-100 miles can make a huge difference in the system's ultimate strength. Certainly paying closer attention here in SE FL given the trends seen over the last 24 hours

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/Hispaniola_lrg.jpg

This is a great point. If Dorian threads the needle between PR and Hispaniola, could lead for a dangerous situation for the Bahamas. For those of you who have been watching the BT/Microwave fix data, you all have seen it move slightly north of west for a while. The upper air mission yesterday is probably a big reason in the shift north -- regarding modeling -- we have seen.

[Siker]

Upper level outflow present on the southern side unlike yesterday.

[GCANE]

Leading convection is taking out a good chunk of the dry slot to the west.

[SFLcane]

To me, the biggest development overnight is the notable shift in modeling to the NE down the road. More models seem to suggest Dorian could cross over the eastern end of the island of Hispanola - or miss it entirely. As you can see from the topographical map here, that isn't where the biggest, most-disruptive mountains are located. In other words, a difference of maybe 50-100 miles can make a huge difference in the system's ultimate strength. Certainly paying closer attention here in SE FL given the trends seen over the last 24 hours

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/Hispaniola_lrg.jpg

This is a great point. If Dorian threads the needle between PR and Hispaniola, could lead for a dangerous situation for the Bahamas. For those of you who have been watching the BT/Microwave fix data, you all have seen it move slightly north of west for a while. The upper air mission yesterday is probably a big reason in the shift north -- regarding modeling -- we have seen.

Yep I don't think it's a coincidence the Euro keeps it after all those sondes got in.

[NDG]

Definitely its circulation coverage has grown, throw out the GFS and Euro runs out from 24 hours ago when they were showing to stay small and weak as it was to approach the Windward Islands.

[NDG]

Too bad Barbados radar is down, has been down for a while now.

[Kazmit]

Hurricane watch for the islands at 11am?

[zhukm29]

The storm is much larger now than it was yesterday.

[Blown Away]

[Dean4Storms]

Agree generally with everyone about the size of Dorian this morning. His moisture envelope and convective area has expanded and no doubt his wind field and strength both growing. I have to admit that I thought this system was doomed once it reached the Carib. Islands a couple days back, not so anymore. Looks like the first potential Tropical Wave to TC threat for the US.

[USTropics]

We can start to track the UL features with 200mb vort charts, how quickly and to what degree that upper-level trough moves SW that's currently diving towards the Caribbean is one key feature to watch:

[Hurricane Jed]

Agree generally with everyone about the size of Dorian this morning. His moisture envelope and convective area has expanded and no doubt his wind field and strength both growing. I have to admit that I thought this system was doomed once it reached the Carib. Islands a couple days back, not so anymore. Looks like the first potential Tropical Wave to TC threat for the US.

You know we had Barry right?

[Kazmit]

Agree generally with everyone about the size of Dorian this morning. His moisture envelope and convective area has expanded and no doubt his wind field and strength both growing. I have to admit that I thought this system was doomed once it reached the Carib. Islands a couple days back, not so anymore. Looks like the first potential Tropical Wave to TC threat for the US.

You know we had Barry right?

Barry didn't form from a tropical wave.

[Bostonriff]

This is the fun part, equivalent to chasing in the plains, and watching a gnarly bear's cage and wondering how big of a hose will drop.

[zhukm29]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1165978379193135104

[Hurricane Jed]

Agree generally with everyone about the size of Dorian this morning. His moisture envelope and convective area has expanded and no doubt his wind field and strength both growing. I have to admit that I thought this system was doomed once it reached the Carib. Islands a couple days back, not so anymore. Looks like the first potential Tropical Wave to TC threat for the US.

You know we had Barry right?

Barry didn't form from a tropical wave.

I read it as if he was talking about a range. Getting anywhere from a wave to a TC.