ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[pgoss11]

Need images people:

https://i.imgur.com/3Rl5Sv4.png

Looks like the entire SE coast could be at risk.

[Blown Away]

Now 50mph approaching SFL 11am.. NHC

That’s the conservative approach which is right way to do it... It’s all about the GFS/EURO not being overly aggressive with Dorian... If that changes the lid comes off IMHO...

[ronjon]

From NHC 11 am Discussion:

Interaction with Hispaniola and possibly Puerto Rico should result
in some weakening in 72-96 hours, followed by restrengthening on day
5 when Dorian will be moving over the very warm waters in the
Bahamas in low shear conditions. Given the unknown degree of
interaction with Hispaniola, the intensity forecast at days 4 and 5
is of very low confidence.

Yikes for SE Florida.

[Evil Jeremy]

Now 50mph approaching SFL 11am.. NHC

That’s the conservative approach which is right way to do it... It’s all about the GFS/EURO not being overly aggressive with Dorian... If that changes the lid comes off IMHO...

I agree with the current conservative approach, with the caveat that if you live in Florida, and you see this cone showing a TS churning through the Bahamas, you should know better and already be preparing for more. Should be instinct for FL homeowners.

[HypercaneKyle]

Looks to be sustaining an actual CDO now.

[ronjon]

Need images people:

https://i.imgur.com/3Rl5Sv4.png

Looks like the entire SE coast could be at risk.

Yes perhaps but then there's this from NHC at 11 am.

On Wednesday,
Dorian is forecast to turn northwestward toward a weakness in the
ridge, which could allow the cyclone to pass near or between
western Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic. By late
Thursday and Friday, all of the model guidance indicates that the
ridge will build back as an upper-level trough/low weakens and lifts
out to the north, which should result in Dorian turning back toward
the west-northwest in the vicinity of the Bahamas.

[hohnywx]

Need images people:

https://i.imgur.com/3Rl5Sv4.png

Looks like the entire SE coast could be at risk.

Have to wait and see what comes in the next day or two. The risk to Florida is definitely increasing.

[ObsessedMiami]

This is a very small storm at this point. What is the likelihood of it growing in size of its windfield even if it intensifies? Or will it remain a smallish storm in general. Sorry if its a noob question

[SFLcane]

Wow continues to grow in size...Interesting what recon finds

[northjaxpro]

This is a very small storm at this point. What is the likelihood of it growing in size of its windfield even if it intensifies? Or will it remain a smallish storm in general. Sorry if its a noob question

It is growing in size and expanding its windfield right now.

[ObsessedMiami]

Wow continues to grow in size...Interesting what recon finds

https://i.imgur.com/CVANbh4.gif

Ok this answers my question in the post above about growing in size. !!!!

[Hurricaneman]

Wow continues to grow in size...Interesting what recon finds

https://i.imgur.com/CVANbh4.gif

It looks like the direction is changing to more WNW the last hour or so

[psyclone]

Considering the speed with which systems can go bananas at peak season in the Bahamas...even if Dorian is significantly degraded following potential greater Antilles entanglement, there is potential for it to snap back together quickly. That endpoint is in a position where it could definitely threaten the southeast US and a favorable environment in the subtropics could spell trouble as it is the zone many have identified as being potentially problematic this year. Even now, Dorian has exceeded expectations in an environment that appeared far from ideal. It's a great reminder that when peak season competes with seemingly marginal conditions, it is the former that seems to win out more often than not. The calendar all of a sudden becomes a massive tailwind and with few exceptions we quietly cross that magical line in the latter half of August..

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm getting some serious Erin 1995 vibes with the current forecast track and strength. I think how far north it gets before it turns back west will depend on how big of a weakness 98L leaves behind. If 98L could spin up and punch a bigger hole in the ridge, perhaps this sucker could get pulled out of the Caribbean and out to sea. Not looking likely though. With that said, I'm not sure how good the conditions in the Bahamas are. 98L has struggled to do anything there all weekend.

[toad strangler]

NHC DISCO
Interaction with Hispaniola and possibly Puerto Rico should result
in some weakening in 72-96 hours, followed by restrengthening on day
5 when Dorian will be moving over the very warm waters in the
Bahamas in low shear conditions. Given the unknown degree of
interaction with Hispaniola, the intensity forecast at days 4 and 5
is of very low confidence.

[TheProfessor]

What time today is Recon supposed to investigate this storm?

[Hurricaneman]

What time today is Recon supposed to investigate this storm?

The depart at 230pm

[drezee]

What time today is Recon supposed to investigate this storm?

Frankly, not soon enough. We have to understand as well...they about to go 7 - 10 days nonstop! They deserve a few hours before the marathon...

[ObsessedMiami]

Bryan Norcross just wrote on Facebook "Possible threat to Florida"

annnnnnnd.....we are off in SFL!

[ColdMiser123]

Complete dissipation is less likely than this time yesterday.

Shear in the Caribbean alongside land interaction will play crucial roles for how strong Dorian gets in the short term, which ultimately impacts long term chances of remaining intact.

Looking at the synoptic evolution, Dorian being stronger than forecast thus far has allowed for it to take a slightly more rightward track than initially thought. This allows it to potentially avoid the worst conditions in the Caribbean in terms of shear, and may allow it to also avoid the most mountainous portion of Hispaniola. The environment is quite favorable in the Bahamas for intensification, so if it does make it there intact, significant intensification is possible.

98L is also creating a weakness in the ridge to the north which makes that poleward motion possible, and allows for Dorian to avoid the worst conditions in the Caribbean.

Many factors are at work with the forecast, and this has to be watched closely over the next several days at this point.

As a side note, the new ICON is coming in with one of the strongest runs yet for Dorian.