ATL: DORIAN - Models

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ronjon
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#381 Postby ronjon » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:12 am

12z UKMET has a landfalling hurricane around 5 pm Saturday afternoon near Miami - Que the mad rush on hurricane supplies in 3, 2,1....
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#382 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:15 am

ronjon wrote:12z UKMET has a landfalling hurricane around 5 pm Saturday afternoon near Miami - Que the mad rush on hurricane supplies in 3, 2,1....
3 days at least for the rush, things move slow in dade county, palm beach county shutters up school cancelled for a month

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#383 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:16 am

Legacy GFS

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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#384 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:17 am

Ridge is way stronger on both gfs this time, whatever dorian and the upper level pattern pans out then its getting in gom
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#385 Postby plasticup » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:17 am

ronjon wrote:12z UKMET has a landfalling hurricane around 5 pm Saturday afternoon near Miami - Que the mad rush on hurricane supplies in 3, 2,1....

At this time of year it is not a bad idea to get your supplies together regardless of the models.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#386 Postby fwbbreeze » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:20 am

Eerily similar track to Erin (95) if that were to verify.

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#387 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:20 am

JLauderdale...Think it might be time for you to get the Genny out and fire it up. Activate the Florida Hurricane Defense Network Shield!!! :flag:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#388 Postby ColdMiser123 » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:22 am

For the first run, CMC deepens Dorian after crossing Hispaniola.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#389 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:23 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:JLauderdale...Think it might be time for you to get the Genny out and fire it up. Activate the Florida Hurricane Defense Network Shield!!! :flag:
Tomorrow for the genny although i did give it the monthly run and start last week..wasnt 98l in the open atlantic supposed to be the tropical entertainment this week?

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#390 Postby toad strangler » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:24 am

GFS Legacy showing a possible double FL landfall. East Coast and panhandle.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#391 Postby mcheer23 » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:24 am

PCB and Mexico Beach certainly does not need what the GFS legacy shows..
Last edited by mcheer23 on Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#392 Postby MrJames » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:25 am

Also hits Tampa and then the panhandle.

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#393 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:26 am

mcheer23 wrote:PCB and Mexico Beach surely does not need what the GFS legacy shows..


You are right about that. That area is still in pretty bad shape.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#394 Postby p1nheadlarry » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:27 am

mcheer23 wrote:PCB and Mexico Beach certainly does not need what the GFS legacy shows..


My gf still has some blue tarp out at her place, but to be fair PCB largely looks like nothing ever happened. It's worse west of Tallahassee on I-10/SR-20 than it is there. Same can't be said for PC proper and the north/east suburbs.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#395 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:27 am

flip flop flip man models frustrate me lol
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#396 Postby stormhunter7 » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:29 am

The old GFS 12z hates me here in PCB! lol
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#397 Postby ronjon » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:29 am

ICON and GFS models trending stronger with 500 mb ridging in the SW Atlantic and North Florida this weekend - let's see if the EURO follows suit in its 12z run.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#398 Postby MrJames » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:31 am

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#399 Postby p1nheadlarry » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:31 am

Looks like South Walton landfall (between Destin/PC)
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#400 Postby SoupBone » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:32 am

I'm really not liking the models starting to show it emerging into the Central GoM. If that keeps showing, this board is really gonna wake up as that opens up all kinds of possibilities.

Also, what models have done the best so far this season with ridging?
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