ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Local Mets showing landfall right where I live. Normally I’d feel good this far out being in the bullseye. But that ridge doesn’t leave a ton of room for it to go. The only thing that seems up in the air is intensity .

[Aric Dunn]

Since last microwave analysis showed center was north of operational track, it looks like convection is firing right on top of the CoC per the RAMMB IR depiction.

https://i.imgur.com/xUJE5tV.jpg

If it is there than the mid level and low level are not stacked

[jlauderdal]

Watch john, if he says florida should be concerned, go get supplies...that would be 180 from his view yesterday

https://m.facebook.com/johnmoralesnbc6

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[GCANE]

Looking at visible, there was some sort of massive outflow burst started around 1245Z on the west side.

[jlauderdal]

Local Mets showing landfall right where I live. Normally I’d feel good this far out being in the bullseye. But that ridge doesn’t leave a ton of room for it to go. The only thing that seems up in the air is intensity .

The days of felling good about being on a 5 day nhc track are almost over, they are too good now

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[AxaltaRacing24]

Local Mets showing landfall right where I live. Normally I’d feel good this far out being in the bullseye. But that ridge doesn’t leave a ton of room for it to go. The only thing that seems up in the air is intensity .

this is what i have noticed. with this ridge in place, somebody in the u.s. will be getting impacts.

[zhukm29]

[northjaxpro]

Local Mets showing landfall right where I live. Normally I’d feel good this far out being in the bullseye. But that ridge doesn’t leave a ton of room for it to go. The only thing that seems up in the air is intensity .

this is what i have noticed. with this ridge in place, somebody in the u.s. will be getting impacts.

Unless it gets buried in the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, then unfortunately chances of CONUS impact are very substantial should this indeed play out this way.

[canes92]

Is the environment in the areas the storm is projected to head towards conductive for hurricane formation?

[HurricaneEnzo]

Is the environment in the areas the storm is projected to head towards conductive for hurricane formation?

As of right now the conditions are conducive in the Bahamas. Will they be conducive by the time Dorian reaches the islands? That is the million dollar question. Current indications/thinking are that the environment will be conducive. Low shear and warm waters. A lot could change by then though. In the nearterm it doesn't appear there is anything to tear this apart other than possible land interaction.

[eastcoastFL]

Watch john, if he says florida should be concerned, go get supplies...that would be 180 from his view yesterday

https://m.facebook.com/johnmoralesnbc6

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I’m well supplied . Hit BJs yesterday just to get a few extra cases of water . May get additional fuel tonight otherwise we’re set.

[Weatherboy1]

Yes, this really does seem to be a case where 50-100 mile variation in track could have a HUGE impact on what Dorian ultimately does. If he dodges Hispanola/avoids interaction with the mountains there, then Bahamas/FL could be in for something potentially serious. Still plenty early to watch and wait, but many models trending in that direction (further E in shorter-term ... therefore missing Hispanola ... before swinging back W/WNW afterward)

[Hammy]

About another hour or two and we'll have the center on radar so that'll take away a lot of the guesswork until recon arrives.

[AubreyStorm]

Raw ADT numbers are now suggesting Dorian is a hurricane

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 AUG 2019 Time : 145020 UTC
Lat : 12:17:22 N Lon : 57:40:05 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 997.1mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.8 4.1

Center Temp : -62.3C Cloud Region Temp : -62.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

At 2pm Hurricane Dorian?

[tolakram]

Is it healthy, or being squished from the north again? At first I thought northerly shear had picked back up but this might just be reorganization as the bands consolidate.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=48&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=100&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=natural_color&x=952.940673828125&y=966.9375

[plasticup]

Stronger --> rightward --> misses Hispaniola --> likely CONUS threat

[northjaxpro]

Stronger --> rightward --> misses Hispaniola --> likely CONUS threat

To be straight-forward here, YES this is correct in a nutshell!

[BYG Jacob]

Is it healthy, or being squished from the north again? At first I thought northerly shear had picked back up but this might just be reorganization as the bands consolidate.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=48&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=100&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=natural_color&x=952.940673828125&y=966.9375

Based on the outflow expanding to the north in that clip, I’d say reorganization

[GCANE]

Cirrus structure very indicative of an anticyclone directly overhead.

[tolakram]

Is it healthy, or being squished from the north again? At first I thought northerly shear had picked back up but this might just be reorganization as the bands consolidate.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=48&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=100&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=natural_color&x=952.940673828125&y=966.9375

Based on the outflow expanding to the north in that clip, I’d say reorganization

In this case I think IR shows it best, just took a big gulp of dry air, which is making its way toward the center.