ATL: DORIAN - Models

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ronjon
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#401 Postby ronjon » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:34 am

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#402 Postby mcheer23 » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:37 am

FWIW...CMC is now on board.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#403 Postby canes92 » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:37 am



Maybe the same path but it doesn't seem likely Dorian would achieve major h status. Maybe I am wrong.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#404 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:38 am

The Canadian model seems to be following suit, coming across the southern tip of Florida headed into the gulf as well at hour 138.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#405 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:43 am

canes92 wrote:


Maybe the same path but it doesn't seem likely Dorian would achieve major h status. Maybe I am wrong.


Forecasting intensity is always a very tough and tricky part of this business/science. Should Dorian get by Hispaniola unscathed, we may have ideal conditions conducive for the cyclone to intensify significally especialy in the vicinity of the Bahamas. In the short term (next 3-5 days).
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#406 Postby ronjon » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:46 am

canes92 wrote:


Maybe the same path but it doesn't seem likely Dorian would achieve major h status. Maybe I am wrong.


Yeah let's hope so - but global models are notoriously poor at predicting intensity. The fact that they forecast a minimal hurricane is disconcerting at best. My analog was for track.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#407 Postby sma10 » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:55 am

northjaxpro wrote:
canes92 wrote:


Maybe the same path but it doesn't seem likely Dorian would achieve major h status. Maybe I am wrong.


Forecasting intensity is always a very tough and tricky part of this business/science. Should Dorian get by Hispaniola unscathed, we may have ideal conditions conducive for the cyclone to intensify significally especialy in the vicinity of the Bahamas. In the short term (next 3-5 days).


Intensity skill with global models is sketchy. 2-3 days in the bahamas under favorable conditions, even a TD could wind up anywhere across the spectrum
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#408 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:01 pm

HWRF still very insistent that Dorian will completely fall apart in the next 48 hours (as opposed to becoming a hurricane).
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#409 Postby AubreyStorm » Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:04 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:HWRF still very insistent that Dorian will completely fall apart in the next 48 hours (as opposed to becoming a hurricane).


Link please ..... :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#410 Postby toad strangler » Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:06 pm

canes92 wrote:


Maybe the same path but it doesn't seem likely Dorian would achieve major h status. Maybe I am wrong.


Frances was a 2 at landfall. The biggest problem with the one was he moved very slow.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#411 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:07 pm

12z HWRF is still running..
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#412 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:08 pm

toad strangler wrote:
canes92 wrote:


Maybe the same path but it doesn't seem likely Dorian would achieve major h status. Maybe I am wrong.


Frances was a 2 at landfall. The biggest problem with the one was he moved very slow.


Sorry, I really don't think Frances is a very good analog for this storm , Was already a powerful hurricane at this
point and further north
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#413 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:13 pm

12z UKMET brings this inland Broward County in 5 1/2 days, exiting the state just south of Tampa Bay.

EDIT: I see ronjon already mentioned it
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#414 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:15 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:HWRF still very insistent that Dorian will completely fall apart in the next 48 hours (as opposed to becoming a hurricane).



Yeah , saw that Still big difference in models at this point
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#415 Postby mlfreeman » Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:18 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:HWRF still very insistent that Dorian will completely fall apart in the next 48 hours (as opposed to becoming a hurricane).


So it’s doing the exact opposite of what it normally does?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#416 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:21 pm

mlfreeman wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:HWRF still very insistent that Dorian will completely fall apart in the next 48 hours (as opposed to becoming a hurricane).


So it’s doing the exact opposite of what it normally does?


Well HWRF has done wild swings on this storm

Also it is run off the GFS
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#417 Postby beachman80 » Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:26 pm

So coming off of Hispanola, what is the likelihood of a track close to Irma? Irma skirted the northern Islands of Hispanola and Cuba and then turned more NW and N and affected Florida's west coast. Or is this thing more likely to be more of an east coast event that could cross into the Gulf, ala Frances, Erin, Andrew, etc.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#418 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:29 pm

beachman80 wrote:So coming off of Hispanola, what is the likelihood of a track close to Irma? Irma skirted the northern Islands of Hispanola and Cuba and then turned more NW and N and affected Florida's west coast. Or is this thing more likely to be more of an east coast event that could cross into the Gulf, ala Frances, Erin, Andrew, etc.


Not sure how anyone can answer that. It depends on the strength of the storm and any upper level ridging in place if/when the storm gets close to Florida.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#419 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:39 pm

nobody knows, gotta see how the upper level pattern plays, we will keep see changes and models will keep going back and forth
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#420 Postby ronjon » Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:43 pm

Both 12z HMON and HWRF dissipate Dorian into an open wave so perhaps the GFS solution isn't so far fetched. Anxiously awaiting this afternoons Euro to see what direction that will go.
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