ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

Could be a BIG coupe for the gfs...HWRF/HMON dissipate it over land.

HWRF is bringing her back in the Bahamas

"Her"?

That's a boys name?

[Frank2]

How quicky people forget the big topic at this time yesterday - shear (per the CIMSS current shear map Dorian is in a low-shear zone but about to enter a large 20-30 Kt area)...

[sma10]

HWRF is bringing her back in the Bahamas

"Her"?

That's a boys name?

Dorian Gray? lol

[psyclone]

How quicky people forget the big topic at this time yesterday - shear (per the CIMSS current shear map Dorian is in a low-shear zone but about to enter a large 20-30 Kt area)...

We'll see. the models are all over the place but severe disruption or even dissipation remain viable options

[zhukm29]

HWRF is bringing her back in the Bahamas

"Her"?

That's a boys name?

Yeah, Dorian is a male name - I know a guy who has that name as well. When in doubt, you can look at the previous or next names on the list (Chantal and Erin) since the names take turns being male and female. But the gender of the name doesn't matter too much, there are certainly names that can fit both genders (although I think Dorian is primarily a male name). Next year's Rene is supposed to be male, for example, but it's also a name that can be given to females. It's kind of odd giving genders to storms in the first place to be honest... sometimes you get cases like when Katia crossed the basin and became Otis.

[alienstorm]

Dorian is ingesting dry air and it's interrupting the coc as we speak. Recon may find a weakening storm.

[chris_fit]

I don't think Gonzo is going in for a core reading. Sampling surrounding environment again?

[SFLcane]

Definitely took some dry air in. Mentioned the odd placement of the llc too. Could have been a short lived mid level pulse of shear.

Just have to wait and see.

I think it has more to do with the system's growth and associated increase in footprint. Looks like it may have picked up some continental air from South America if you look at microwave imagery. I think it might just slow the intensification rate though rather than reverse it, especially considering current structure.

https://i.imgur.com/e8qD8Dn.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/mhQncl9.jpg

Still a mess right now.. I can see why HWRF kills it off.

[tolakram]

First low level recon is 23:30 ... 19:30 EDT (7:30PM) IF I read the plan of the day correctly.

[BensonTCwatcher]

How quicky people forget the big topic at this time yesterday - shear (per the CIMSS current shear map Dorian is in a low-shear zone but about to enter a large 20-30 Kt area)...

2 areas of shear coming I think. There is the shear ahead over the islands and the shear induced by the ULL north of Dorian hasn't happened yet. Depending on how far south it sinks, it could shear the storm or provide an outflow channel. Lots to watch between now and Thursday

[AutoPenalti]

Definitely took some dry air in. Mentioned the odd placement of the llc too. Could have been a short lived mid level pulse of shear.

Just have to wait and see.

I think it has more to do with the system's growth and associated increase in footprint. Looks like it may have picked up some continental air from South America if you look at microwave imagery. I think it might just slow the intensification rate though rather than reverse it, especially considering current structure.

https://i.imgur.com/e8qD8Dn.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/mhQncl9.jpg

Still a mess right now.. I can see why HWRF kills it off.

HWRF doesn't kill it off. It weakens it then begins to strengthen in the Bahamas.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1166057993453985798

[Aric Dunn]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1166057993453985798

I mean we have seen many storms go through this cycle. Convection wanes just before the final convective burst that send its on a RI period. Hard to say in this case considering the amount of dry air surrounding it. Just have to wait..

I do see some convection firing off again in the bands. That should build inwards ..

[Frank2]

Re: Papin tweet: Understood but the moderate-strong shear from the ULL to its northwest has halted many well organized systems in similar situations...

[zhukm29]

I think we are in a situation where we just have to watch and see what happens tonight. Models are all over the place, with some dissipating it while others are strengthening it (with flip-flops as well). Convection is definitely waning and dry air may be causing problems for the system, but the latest microwave pass is a bit concerning.

[SoupBone]

Someone either correct or explain it to me. Shear aids dry air getting into the system as well, right? Basically, it's able to help push the dry air into it? SAL isn't all that bad, but it does have some dry air surrounding it as well.

[Sanibel]

We should get good land-based readings from Barbados to give a real time report of what type of cyclone it is...

Heading to Costco for water and batteries...Obviously the predicted track is one where hurricanes have gotten strong in the past...Since the tracks are almost always wrong at this distance out it wouldn't take much leftward adjustment to bring a strong one over us at this point...(This isn't a prediction)...

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1166060430428495873

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think as a part of the cycle we have a strengthening storm. eyewall feature W and SW quadrant. Easier to see on shortwave band

https://col.st/EvDZX

[Evenstar]

HWRF is bringing her back in the Bahamas

"Her"?

That's a boys name?

According to Oscar Wilde (and I rather trust his judgment on these things), Dorian is indeed a gent.