ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[mpic]

Dorian was the name of my highschool yearbook in the 1960's, so we are jokingly planning a reunion on the Gulf Coast. lol

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1166071448839938049

Ouch! Could mean gave over for Dorian. Very hostile environment awaits.

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1166071448839938049

Ouch! Could mean gave over for Dorian. Very hostile environment awaits.

The air is dry, but isn't that shear from its own outflow?

[gfsperpendicular]

Dorian is really struggling. That gulp of dry air is really a good sign for everyone in the path.

[Ubuntwo]

Dorian is really struggling. That gulp of dry air is really a good sign for everyone in the path.

For those in the Antilles, sure. Longer term though? Doesn’t matter much.

[GCANE]

Air is pretty much saturated at drop 6

[Visioen]

For real though. Looking st recon sampling the surrounding environment... that is some seriously dry mid levels. Amazing how this is producing so much convection.

Alao looks likes its about to explode again.

However, little to no directional shear and good mid-level lapse rate.

Recent NOAA9 dropsondes just east of the Antilles ahead of #Dorian have revealed an insanely dry mid-level environment
w/ relative humidity values near 0% ~ 400-500mb in addition to significant shear.
This will be a major deterrent to further intensification the next 3 days. pic.twitter.com/9pxwj7ukL3
-- Eric Webb (@webberweather) August 26, 2019

Now, what is it?

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1166073825219366912

[GCANE]

Kermit's in the air

[gfsperpendicular]

Dorian is really struggling. That gulp of dry air is really a good sign for everyone in the path.

For those in the Antilles, sure. Longer term though? Doesn’t matter much.

You are absolutely right and I don't mean to down play this storm and the risks involved. But there is a chance that it dies altogether before it crosses into the Bahamas. If it doesn't get its stuff together it'll trend more left and get shredded but Hispaniola.

[Evil Jeremy]

Dorian is really struggling. That gulp of dry air is really a good sign for everyone in the path.

Looks to me like he's already recharging:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[LarryWx]

Even though it is from the remnants of Dorian, himself, it is almost as if the model consensus is showing a new storm likely forming in or E of the Bahamas regardless of what Dorian does in the Caribbean due to then near ideal conditions.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Unwise to base Dorian's intensity solely on convection; the structure looks pretty good and improving.

[Visioen]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1166071448839938049

Ouch! Could mean gave over for Dorian. Very hostile environment awaits.

The air is dry, but isn't that shear from its own outflow?

That would explain a lot. I think so too.

[LarryWx]

Using my eyeballs, I roughly estimate 75% of the 51 or so 12Z EPS members have a TD+ and 30% have a H. These are big upticks from earlier runs.

[rickybobby]

Wesh 2 just said it will impact Florida but how strong they don't know. Could be a TD if it goes over the mountains or a cat 1 if misses them. On Wednesday they should have a clear picture.

[Frank P]

Using my eyeballs, I roughly estimate 75% of the 51 or so 12Z EPS members have a TD+ and 30% have a H. These are big upticks from earlier runs.

From what I can tell about half go in the GOM and half in the ATL or FL... give or take a few... one member has a strong storm hitting NOLA... 2% chance

[AnnularCane]

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1166061476429422593

That's an...interesting way of putting it. Is Dorian a little sick right now?

[wx98]

We need low level recon badly to figure out what exactly is going on

[BobHarlem]

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1166061476429422593

That's an...interesting way of putting it. Is Dorian a little sick right now?

Still going, but the engine is sputtering.