ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Emmett_Brown]

It's very common for storms to pulse convection when they are fighting stable air. Andrew showed similar behavior as a tropical storm; Andrew also encountered lots of stable air during the early stages. Dorian is pulsing again right now.

[AxaltaRacing24]

It's very common for storms to pulse convection when they are fighting stable air. Andrew showed similar behavior as a tropical storm; Andrew also encountered lots of stable air during the early stages. Dorian is pulsing again right now.

It just has to basically chill as a ts/cat 1 until it passes hispaniola, then it might be go time.

[Evil Jeremy]

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1166061476429422593

That's an...interesting way of putting it. Is Dorian a little sick right now?

Still going, but the engine is sputtering.

Hasn't been sputtering over the last hour...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[Evil Jeremy]

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 58.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

[Blown Away]

12.7N, Dorian really climbing now.

[Evil Jeremy]

SFL in the cone now.

[Kazmit]

:uarrow: 12.7N, Dorian really climbing now.

Track has bended to a WNW motion by now.

[USVIKimmie]

https://i.ibb.co/0thwr94/204140-5day-cone-no-line-and-wind-1.png

SFL in the cone now.

There's a lot of land - and people - before it even gets to FL. People still not recovered from IrMariaGeddon.

[jlauderdal]

SFL in the cone now.

So.much for dissipation

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

[Weatherboy1]

Worth noting that end-of-forecast-period estimates of intensity keep climbing. This morning, was estimated only 30 mph at day 5. Raised to 50 mph at 11 a.m. and now 70 mph/borderline hurricane ...

[hipshot]

That's an...interesting way of putting it. Is Dorian a little sick right now?

Still going, but the engine is sputtering.

Hasn't been sputtering over the last hour...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Man, that blow up happened just about the time it was going to hit Barbados. Hope all are well there and keep you head down.

[Aric Dunn]

This thing would probably be a beast of a hurricane if the dry air was not around.

[Evil Jeremy]

Portions of the Discussion that pertain to Floridan interests:

By late Thursday and Friday, the ridge is forecast to
build back in as an upper-level trough lifts out to the north,
causing Dorian to turn back toward the west-northwest in the
vicinity of the central Bahamas. The new official forecast track is
just an extension of the previous one since the latest model
guidance, especially the consensus models, are tightly packed around
the previous track forecast.

Most of the global models along with the statistical-
dynamical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models are now showing pronounced
strengthening while Dorian is moving near or through the Bahamas, so
the official forecast shows a significant change to the previous
one at 96 and 120 hours. However, confidence in the intensity
forecast at days 4 and 5 is very low given the uncertainty about how
much of Dorian's core will interact with Hispaniola.

While uncertainty is high, wind and rain impacts are possible in
the Bahamas and Florida later this week and this weekend. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that
they have their hurricane plan in place.

[Weatherboy1]

Key passage on future intensity from NHC discussion below. Main point: IF Dorian survives/avoids Hispanola, the environment in the Bahamas looks conducive to re-strengthening before a (potential) future landfall in FL ...

Most of the global models along with the statistical-
dynamical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models are now showing pronounced
strengthening while Dorian is moving near or through the Bahamas, so
the official forecast shows a significant change to the previous
one at 96 and 120 hours. However, confidence in the intensity
forecast at days 4 and 5 is very low given the uncertainty about how
much of Dorian's core will interact with Hispaniola.

[Kingarabian]

This thing would probably be a beast of a hurricane if the dry air was not around.

I think that can be said for the majority of MDR systems

[Dougiefresh]

Still going, but the engine is sputtering.

Hasn't been sputtering over the last hour...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Man, that blow up happened just about the time it was going to hit Barbados. Hope all are well there and keep you head down.

Good for now. Not much action as yet but it certainly looks like its about to ramp up quickly

[Aric Dunn]

This thing would probably be a beast of a hurricane if the dry air was not around.

I think that can be said for the majority of MDR systems

IT is the crazy good outflow. most struggle do to easterly shear or Sw shear etc..

[Aric Dunn]

Finally Recon is on its way.. taking off from the abc islands.. so a little wait.

[ObsessedMiami]

Portions of the Discussion that pertain to Floridan interests:

By late Thursday and Friday, the ridge is forecast to
build back in as an upper-level trough lifts out to the north,
causing Dorian to turn back toward the west-northwest in the
vicinity of the central Bahamas. The new official forecast track is
just an extension of the previous one since the latest model
guidance, especially the consensus models, are tightly packed around
the previous track forecast.

Most of the global models along with the statistical-
dynamical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models are now showing pronounced
strengthening while Dorian is moving near or through the Bahamas, so
the official forecast shows a significant change to the previous
one at 96 and 120 hours. However, confidence in the intensity
forecast at days 4 and 5 is very low given the uncertainty about how
much of Dorian's core will interact with Hispaniola.

While uncertainty is high, wind and rain impacts are possible in
the Bahamas and Florida later this week and this weekend. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that
they have their hurricane plan in place.

Certainly enough to get me to the gas station tonight or tomorrow just in case

[Kazmit]

Interesting part of the discussion.

Interaction with Hispaniola and
possibly Puerto Rico should result in some weakening in 72-96
hours, followed by restrengthening on days 4 and 5 when Dorian will
be moving over the very warm waters in the Bahamas in low shear
conditions. Most of the global models along with the statistical-
dynamical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models are now showing pronounced
strengthening while Dorian is moving near or through the Bahamas, so
the official forecast shows a significant change to the previous
one at 96 and 120 hours.