ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

Certainly doesn’t look any stronger, but with the significant uptick in convection and decent outflow, still don’t see it dissipating altogether a la last couple days of GFS runs. In other words, think it will continue to mix off/fight off dry air and likely reach hurricane strength before too long.

[Weatherboy1]

Longer term, models certainly do seem to be zeroing in on some kind of peninsula Florida hit. Questions as to where, how strong etc. But am definitely preparing/watching here in PBC. If - big IF - Hispaniola doesn’t cause much disruption due to a more easterly track, then NHC day 4-5 intensity guidance likely too low in my opinion

[USTropics]

First 40 visible frames:

[Aric Dunn]

Actually looking quite healthy. Center passing/passed over northern St lucia.

[SFLcane]

I see it is looking alot healthier. Especially on radar with a long curved band. Shear still has not kicked up and dry air is touch and go. Looks like it will survive the carrib. Low level flow is not all that strong and will be turning out of the se.

Unfortunately I agree this will more then likely survive the Caribbean and eventually be some type of issue for FL.

[northjaxpro]

Certainly doesn’t look any stronger, but with the significant uptick in convection and decent outflow, still don’t see it dissipating altogether a la last couple days of GFS runs. In other words, think it will continue to mix off/fight off dry air and likely reach hurricane strength before too long.

Yes I agree. Dorian has a very good ovetall structure and the cyclone is organized quite well. I do not see this dissipating. It should maintain itself, and once the inner core gets completely away from Hispaniola 's influences in a few days, conditions look pretty good for Dorian to become a hurrricane, possibly as early as Thursday or Thursday evening,.

[toad strangler]

I see it is looking alot healthier. Especially on radar with a long curved band. Shear still has not kicked up and dry air is touch and go. Looks like it will survive the carrib. Low level flow is not all that strong and will be turning out of the se.

Unfortunately I agree this will more then likely survive the Caribbean and eventually be some type of issue for FL.

Looks that way but look at how far Dorian is out and all the players moving on the table. I would be quite wary anywhere from TX to the Carolinas with this kind of real estate left.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1166303616082284545

[Tailspin]

Center continues to be displayed and away from the main convection mass and appears to be on the south eastern edge.
https://i.imgur.com/fEDk2ZL.jpg

@06z 36H shows what looks too be the open core. https://imgur.com/MWanhMm

[GCANE]

Rain rate is picking up, looks like a more sustainable warm core maybe forming.

[GCANE]

ADT is reporting a curved band
Strong towers firing east of the islands

[weathermimmi]

First 40 visible frames:

https://cardse.net/i/2019/08/27/5c298e6e8f810edc71d007a60a378abc.gif

Something is brewing and not just the coffee this I see this morning, albeit small we shall see strengthening as they day progresses from Dorian. Small or not a storm is a storm to pay attention to.

[Aric Dunn]

ADT is reporting a curved band

Yeah radar signature continues to improve.

Once the center get away from the island and assuming it does not pull in dry air before it develops a decent core. Then we could see it ramp up.

[GCANE]

Currently Dorian is under some slightly divergent and strong UL winds due to an UL High to the NE.
However, could see some significant improvement in outflow later this afternoon as Dorian tracks NW.

https://i.imgur.com/CojjVRu.png

Who said its will go NW this afternoon

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Longer Martinique and Guadeloupe radar loops by Brian McNoldy:
http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/radar/
He combines all the images so far of the storm on those radars, in real time.

You can get the original imagery on these sites:

Martinique and Guadeloupe:

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-me ... r/antilles
http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... 700&MAPP=1

Martinique:
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

Guadeloupe:
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

[Aric Dunn]

By far the best satellite appearance as well with very noticable mid to upper level rotation for the first time.

The long curved band is very distinct on visible.. vs yesterday when it was just a large ball of convection.

[Aric Dunn]

Longer Martinique and Guadeloupe radar loops by Brian McNoldy:
http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/radar/
He combines all the images so far of the storm on those radars, in real time.

You can get the original imagery on these sites:

Martinique and Guadeloupe:

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-me ... r/antilles
http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... 700&MAPP=1

Martinique:
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

Guadeloupe:
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

THANK YOU! Totally forgot about his site. And the single view site radar loops..

And the best thing is the last frame is held.. i think i might tear up a little..

[p1nheadlarry]

The streaky cirrus outflow - that is due to the storm dealing with drier than desired air right?

[Nimbus]

By far the best satellite appearance as well with very noticable mid to upper level rotation for the first time.

The long curved band is very distinct on visible.. vs yesterday when it was just a large ball of convection.

Persistance rather than pulsation overnight.
THE 06Z GFS finally acknowledges Dorian and tracks him over the high terrain of Hispaniola.
Despite better conditions in the Bahamas, the GFS tracks just a 1000 mb tropical storm into the Cape.
Good hedge that conveys some of the steering elements being considered.

[robbielyn]

Levi Cowan just said no strengthening is happening at this time, he said if there were, there would be more curved banding wrapping into the center and radar showing ragged edges indicating weak rotation. he says it is following expectations at this time. per tweet.