ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

Models really starting to cluster around an east central Florida/south Florida impact here. Still time for trend to change or course as we’re talking 5 days out. But most outlier models gradually coming into alignment with that scenario over time vs showing an increasing spread of possible paths

[hurricaneCW]

I'd be a little nervous in Puerto Rico, small systems are notorious for ramping up extremely quickly and many times models won't pick up on it.

Shear is low and waters are very warm and while there's dry air it won't penetrate the core if shear is low.

[Aric Dunn]

Levi Cowan just said no strengthening is happening at this time, he said if there were, there would be more curved banding wrapping into the center and radar showing ragged edges indicating weak rotation. he says it is following expectations at this time. per tweet.

Yeah, its not bombing out or anything. But it is clealry more organized than it ever has been. Its a ragged curved band .. but its the first real curved band its hand. Thats the point.

[wxman57]

Doesn't look very close to becoming a hurricane as it enters the Caribbean this morning. Recon is finding almost zero wind SW of the center now, and it's not because of a very fast westerly movement of the center. May have weakened to a depression, or a wave. At least we'll have some data to work with now.

[GCANE]

Surface winds in the SW quad looking better this morning.
A few SFMR readings at 27 knts

[chaser1]

Longer Martinique and Guadeloupe radar loops by Brian McNoldy:
http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/radar/
He combines all the images so far of the storm on those radars, in real time.

You can get the original imagery on these sites:

Martinique and Guadeloupe:

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-me ... r/antilles
http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... 700&MAPP=1

Martinique:
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

Guadeloupe:
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

THANK YOU! Totally forgot about his site. And the single view site radar loops..

And the best thing is the last frame is held.. i think i might tear up a little..

Agreed, great share!

[robbielyn]

Levi Cowan just said no strengthening is happening at this time, he said if there were, there would be more curved banding wrapping into the center and radar showing ragged edges indicating weak rotation. he says it is following expectations at this time. per tweet.

Yeah, its not bombing out or anything. But it is clealry more organized than it ever has been. Its a ragged curved band .. but its the first real curved band its hand. Thats the point.

on martinique radar it looks like a 7 not round like before. what does that mean Aric?

[Aric Dunn]

Levi Cowan just said no strengthening is happening at this time, he said if there were, there would be more curved banding wrapping into the center and radar showing ragged edges indicating weak rotation. he says it is following expectations at this time. per tweet.

Yeah, its not bombing out or anything. But it is clealry more organized than it ever has been. Its a ragged curved band .. but its the first real curved band its hand. Thats the point.

on martinique radar it looks like a 7 not round like before. what does that mean Aric?

A 7?

[SFLcane]

If it’s a wave indeed it might not survive land interaction before it makes into the sw atl.

[otowntiger]

Doesn't look very close to becoming a hurricane as it enters the Caribbean this morning. Recon is finding almost zero wind SW of the center now, and it's not because of a very fast westerly movement of the center. May have weakened to a depression, or a wave. At least we'll have some data to work with now.

http://wxman57.com/images/Gulf6.JPG

so Obviously this will have significant implications on its intensity down the road, but do you think it will also affect path? Of course if it has no intensity ultimate track will not matter a whole lot.

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon is finding a very broad and ill-defined low-level center. Pressures appear to have risen since yesterday. Granted, the overall circulation appears slightly more robust than yesterday with NW flow on the south side of the system compared to the NE flow yesterday. System seems to lack any semblance of an organized inner core right now.

[chaser1]

Looks okay but still structurally lacking a bit. Unless it beefs up quite a bit and acquires a good deal of additional banding then i'd say the likelihood of much deepening will be minimal until possibly right upon approach to P.R. perhaps. Either way, as small and shallow as Dorian is right now even a Puerto Rico landfall will likely result in Dorian opening up to a tropical wave again. So then comes the question as to how much and how fast might regeneration continue thereafter. Other question is whether a low level feature be more apt to move more westward until such regeneration were to occur?

[Aric Dunn]

Recon is finding a very broad and ill-defined low-level center. Pressures appear to have risen since yesterday. Granted, the overall circulation appears slightly more robust than yesterday with NW flow on the south side of the system compared to the NE flow yesterday. System seems to lack any semblance of an organized inner core right now.

However, this is not the first time a llc has gone over a island of 1000 plus foot . Eddys and turbulent are quite common. Looking at the recon data and radar.

The center maybe have just bounced reformed west of the island. From the upslope winds changes in localized pressure have likely just caused a temporary reformation.

[wxman57]

When the SFMR winds are more than twice the FL winds you shouldn't trust them. Observations across the islands indicate winds generally 10-20 kts around the center in its western half. Looks like there are some TS winds in the NE quadrant, at least according to SFMR. Fort de France, Martinique reported a brief wind of 30 kts gusting 40 kts.

[robbielyn]

Yeah, its not bombing out or anything. But it is clealry more organized than it ever has been. Its a ragged curved band .. but its the first real curved band its hand. Thats the point.

on martinique radar it looks like a 7 not round like before. what does that mean Aric?

A 7?

Yes on radar there an elongated green area. it either is reorganizing and it will get slightly larger or it came unraveled some. Don’t worry about if it doesn’t mean anything. it isn’t as round or more symmetrical as yesterday. no biggie. i know once it gets past the islands towards puerto rico it is supposed to be a hurricane. hope it gets shredded in hispaniola although it isn’t looking like it.

[wx98]

on martinique radar it looks like a 7 not round like before. what does that mean Aric?

A 7?

Yes on radar there an elongated green area. it either is reorganizing and it will get slightly larger or it came unraveled some. Don’t worry about if it doesn’t mean anything. it isn’t as round or more symmetrical as yesterday. no biggie. i know once it gets past the islands towards puerto rico it is supposed to be a hurricane. hope it gets shredded in hispaniola although it isn’t looking like it.

It’s actually no longer forecast to become a hurricane before PR and Hispaniola.

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon is finding a very broad and ill-defined low-level center. Pressures appear to have risen since yesterday. Granted, the overall circulation appears slightly more robust than yesterday with NW flow on the south side of the system compared to the NE flow yesterday. System seems to lack any semblance of an organized inner core right now.

However, this is not the first time a llc has gone over a island of 1000 plus foot . Eddys and turbulent are quite common. Looking at the recon data and radar.

The center maybe have just bounced reformed west of the island. From the upslope winds changes in localized pressure have likely just caused a temporary reformation.

I’m not seeing any signs of a center reformation. I see a very broad center in the midst of poorly organized convection. Considering the environment will likely become increasingly unfavorable over the next few days, I think the global models have the right idea of a very poorly organized TC/open wave as it approaches Hispaniola/PR. Heavy rainfall from the system could still be life-threatening, however.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Pressures look to be around 1009-1010mb.

Dorian's on death's doorstep. Could weaken to a TD today. This doesn't change anything about the possibilities in the Bahamas.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I'll post some satellite links too. I'm always looking for more satellite links too.

The main one jumps around a lot of times:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... d=AL052019
From: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=al052019
Model products on that site: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=al052019

http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satelli ... 14&lon=-62
From: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?center ... obalir-avn

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0
From: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... hecked=map

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 967&y=7529

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
From: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/floaters/

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_h ... km&PROD=ir
From: https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

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Mesoscale floater 2 (which it is currently on, meaning one minute imagery):

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/meso_index.php
Then select which one it is out of usually the top two listed.

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... ew=leaflet

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... 24-0-100-1

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/s ... ct=10p35um

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
From: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/#meso

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... =343&y=666

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Other radar eventually, Puerto Rico (though at the moment it says it is unavailable for maintenance):

Long range:

You can select long range once on the page from the menu:
https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/pr/san-juan/jua

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?ove ... roduct=N0Z

This might have a longer range one data is available again:
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=l ... 24-0-100-1

Short range (currently has an older date as of posting):
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/i ... A-N0Q-0-12

[SFLcane]

Stewart on duty...