ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Blown Away]

06z ICON... Big shift N and strong.

[b0tzy29]

https://i.imgur.com/pupuaiv.gif
06z HWRF... Modest TS/Cat 1 into Central Florida... Models seems to want to strengthen very near Florida coast...

Looks like a running back hitting the "A" gap on this run, going right through the DR and Puerto Rico

[caneman]

I've never liked this angle of approach to Florida. It brings nightmares as far as intensity concerns. We will see.

[northjaxpro]

Yes.
Good catch NDG. I overlooked the md- upper trough feature. Yeah, that will bend Dorian back w or w/nw toward the East Florida Coast, depending on the orientation of the ridge late this week.

The funny thing now that I look closer is that the mid level circulation dropping south was at one point part of TD 6 which decoupled, so in a way TD 6 is responsible for creating the weakness in the ridge in the long run.

That is right.

[jconsor]

The HAFS is initialized with a FV3-GFS core. Yesterday's 12z run of the FV3-GFS had Dorian much further south than it is at present and tracked into the middle of Hispaniola, so that explains why the 12z HAFS showed little strengthening after passing Hispaniola.

I've been monitoring the forecasts from NOAA's next generation hurricane model (HAFS) for a few runs now and it appears to be very inconsistent with Dorian. After some runs showing the system not developing much at all, the most recent run blows it up to a Cat 5 hurricane! Although the HAFS performed quite well with Barry (if I remember correctly, it didn't blow that storm up the way HWRF did), I don't think its doing great with Dorian so far. The intensity in the eastern Caribbean also appears to be too high based on the storms current appearance. Of course, this is still a very early experimental model and I expect many improvements will be made over time! For reference, here is a description I already posted a few pages back:

The HAFS is NOAA's next-generation multi-scale numerical model and data assimilation package, which will provide an operational analysis and forecast out to seven days, with reliable and skillful guidance on Tropical Cyclone (TC) track and intensity (including rapid intensification), storm size, genesis, storm surge, rainfall and tornadoes associated with Tropical Cyclones within the framework of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) and its rolling three-year Strategic Implementation Plan (SIP). Central to the development of HAFS will be the FV3 dynamical core with embedded moving nest capable of tracking the inner core region of the hurricane at 1-2 km resolution.

https://i.imgur.com/2Ji91bH.gif

[Blown Away]

12z Guidance, nearly all miss Hispaniola now.

[jlauderdal]

I've never liked this angle of approach to Florida. It brings nightmares as far as intensity concerns. We will see.

Any angle through the bahamas in a minimal shear environment is very dangerous

[jlauderdal]

06z Navgem... Likes Miami as a Cat 1/2

Navgem has been consistently south of the consensus

[cjrciadt]

Yeah... the COTI model Cat one while crossing PR and approaches CFL as Cat4... Nope!

[stormlover2013]

https://i.imgur.com/si5lyTk.gif
06z ICON... Big shift N and strong.

not really a big shift, it only goes to 120 hours but its not a big shift north

[ronjon]

I've never liked this angle of approach to Florida. It brings nightmares as far as intensity concerns. We will see.

Any angle through the bahamas in a minimal shear environment is very dangerous

Yeah I think the fact that now all models including the GFS and HMON regenerate and strengthen the system in the Bahamas is a big cause for concern. We on this board who've been here in Florida tracking these things for many years know the potential explosiveness of development in this region of the Bahamas (going back all the way to 1992). And the fact that there will be strong 500 mb ridging in the SW Atlantic should scare anyone in Florida including the Keys. Time will tell - everyone is making a big issue of Hispanola interaction but I think that's missing the larger point. How will atmospheric conditions be down the road in the Bahamas and might we see RI or are there going to be inhibiting factors that will limit development in this region?

[Aric Dunn]

Whats the link to HAFS. Im at work and dont have my bookmarks.

[SoupBone]

Anyone else notice the ICON sending something else toward the Louisiana/Texas area at the end of its 06Z run?

[caneseddy]

https://i.imgur.com/9e9N1wx.gif
06z Navgem... Likes Miami as a Cat 1/2

Navgem has been consistently south of the consensus

Also the UKMET which for the past several runs maintained landfall into South Florida and ICON which shows it in the Straits

[WAcyclone]

Whats the link to HAFS. Im at work and dont have my bookmarks.

https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/basin/?projectName=BASIN

[Aric Dunn]

Whats the link to HAFS. Im at work and dont have my bookmarks.

https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/basin/?projectName=BASIN

Ty

[crownweather]

Whats the link to HAFS. Im at work and dont have my bookmarks.

https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/basin/?projectName=BASIN

[Mouton]

I've never liked this angle of approach to Florida. It brings nightmares as far as intensity concerns. We will see.

Any angle through the bahamas in a minimal shear environment is very dangerous

Yeah I think the fact that now all models including the GFS and HMON regenerate and strengthen the system in the Bahamas is a big cause for concern. We on this board who've been here in Florida tracking these things for many years know the potential explosiveness of development in this region of the Bahamas (going back all the way to 1992). And the fact that there will be strong 500 mb ridging in the SW Atlantic should scare anyone in Florida including the Keys. Time will tell - everyone is making a big issue of Hispanola interaction but I think that's missing the larger point. How will atmospheric conditions be down the road in the Bahamas and might we see RI or are there going to be inhibiting factors that will limit development in this region?

Yup, they seem to get super charged when they hit the Gulf Stream. 1992 bad memory about that subject. Any path around PR to north and then bending to NW is never a good thing.

[TheStormExpert]

I’m glad the consensus has been trending slowly north towards the northern Treasure Coast and Space Coast, that should put Palm Beach County on the better side of things if should Dorian become something more significant. Still plenty of room for change as we saw two years ago with Irma but the northward trends are relieving some.

[Aric Dunn]

6z euro has a deepening hurricane turning wnw into the central/northern Bahamas at 90 hrs..