ATL: DORIAN - Models

[WeatherEmperor]

6z euro has a deepening hurricane turning wnw into the central/northern Bahamas at 90 hrs..

Can you tell us if it points at south or central florida??


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[TheStormExpert]

6z euro has a deepening hurricane turning wnw into the central/northern Bahamas at 90 hrs..

It seems that the 06z and 18z runs of the Euro are different in solutions some, why is that? Different parameters?

[Aric Dunn]

6z euro has a deepening hurricane turning wnw into the central/northern Bahamas at 90 hrs..

Can you tell us if it points at south or central florida??


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central.

[CourierPR]

I’m glad the consensus has been trending slowly north towards the northern Treasure Coast and Space Coast, that should put Palm Beach County on the better side of things if should Dorian become something more significant. Still plenty of room for change as we saw two years ago with Irma but the northward trends are relieving some.

We've seen this scenario before. It is too early to put any area in the clear.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

The run shown above of the 06z ICON the last few frames on the run sem to be due west if not even wsw, not good at all.

[TheStormExpert]

I’m glad the consensus has been trending slowly north towards the northern Treasure Coast and Space Coast, that should put Palm Beach County on the better side of things if should Dorian become something more significant. Still plenty of room for change as we saw two years ago with Irma but the northward trends are relieving some.

We've seen this scenario before. It is too early to put any area in the clear.

Exactly!

[norva13x]

Welp, better get ready here in central Florida. Was assuming it wouldn't be much but the risk appears to be rising.

[jlauderdal]

Any angle through the bahamas in a minimal shear environment is very dangerous

Yeah I think the fact that now all models including the GFS and HMON regenerate and strengthen the system in the Bahamas is a big cause for concern. We on this board who've been here in Florida tracking these things for many years know the potential explosiveness of development in this region of the Bahamas (going back all the way to 1992). And the fact that there will be strong 500 mb ridging in the SW Atlantic should scare anyone in Florida including the Keys. Time will tell - everyone is making a big issue of Hispanola interaction but I think that's missing the larger point. How will atmospheric conditions be down the road in the Bahamas and might we see RI or are there going to be inhibiting factors that will limit development in this region?

Yup, they seem to get super charged when they hit the Gulf Stream. 1992 bad memory about that subject. Any path around PR to north and then bending to NW is never a good thing.

the The Bahamas are prime hurricane breeding ground, very warm waters, no topography to disrupt the systems, put all that together with bernuda high and you can get a very efficient setup for hurricanes...thankfully its counteracted by troughs, shear, and hispanola

[TheStormExpert]

Maybe Hurricane Erin (1995) is a good analog for track and potentially intensity as well.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Erin_(1995)

[chris_fit]

Where can we find the 6z and 18z EURO model graphics?

[northjaxpro]

Yeah I think the fact that now all models including the GFS and HMON regenerate and strengthen the system in the Bahamas is a big cause for concern. We on this board who've been here in Florida tracking these things for many years know the potential explosiveness of development in this region of the Bahamas (going back all the way to 1992). And the fact that there will be strong 500 mb ridging in the SW Atlantic should scare anyone in Florida including the Keys. Time will tell - everyone is making a big issue of Hispanola interaction but I think that's missing the larger point. How will atmospheric conditions be down the road in the Bahamas and might we see RI or are there going to be inhibiting factors that will limit development in this region?

Yup, they seem to get super charged when they hit the Gulf Stream. 1992 bad memory about that subject. Any path around PR to north and then bending to NW is never a good thing.

the The Bahamas are prime hurricane breeding ground, very warm waters, no topography to disrupt the systems, put all that together with bernuda high and you can get a very efficient setup for hurricanes...thankfully its counteracted by troughs, shear, and hispanola

Conditions look very conducive for strengthening once Dorian gets into the Bahamas as low shear and warm ssts are just waiting for Dorian to take adavantage of soon in that region. A very concerning situation indeed for all along the Florida East Coast.

[jlauderdal]

Yup, they seem to get super charged when they hit the Gulf Stream. 1992 bad memory about that subject. Any path around PR to north and then bending to NW is never a good thing.

the The Bahamas are prime hurricane breeding ground, very warm waters, no topography to disrupt the systems, put all that together with bernuda high and you can get a very efficient setup for hurricanes...thankfully its counteracted by troughs, shear, and hispanola

Conditions look very conducive for strengthening once Dorian gets into the Bahamas as low shear and warm ssts are just waiting for Dorian to take adavantage of soon in that region. A very concerning situation indeed for all along the Florida East Coast.

yesterday we were in the crosshairs, seems today heading more your direction, not easy to get a hurricane into Jacksonville though..navgem and ukmet hanging tough with the southerly solution

[toad strangler]

Yup, they seem to get super charged when they hit the Gulf Stream. 1992 bad memory about that subject. Any path around PR to north and then bending to NW is never a good thing.

the The Bahamas are prime hurricane breeding ground, very warm waters, no topography to disrupt the systems, put all that together with bernuda high and you can get a very efficient setup for hurricanes...thankfully its counteracted by troughs, shear, and hispanola

Conditions look very conducive for strengthening once Dorian gets into the Bahamas as low shear and warm ssts are just waiting for Dorian to take adavantage of soon in that region. A very concerning situation indeed for all along the Florida East Coast.

I'm right with you but it's a big IF that Dorian survives the E Caribbean graveyard. Not many do historically.

[toad strangler]

the The Bahamas are prime hurricane breeding ground, very warm waters, no topography to disrupt the systems, put all that together with bernuda high and you can get a very efficient setup for hurricanes...thankfully its counteracted by troughs, shear, and hispanola

Conditions look very conducive for strengthening once Dorian gets into the Bahamas as low shear and warm ssts are just waiting for Dorian to take adavantage of soon in that region. A very concerning situation indeed for all along the Florida East Coast.

yesterday we were in the crosshairs, seems today heading more your direction, not easy to get a hurricane into Jacksonville though..navgem and ukmet hanging tough with the southerly solution

I don't think any part of the FL E coastline would be off the table including The Keys should he survive the graveyard and the Shredder.

[Aric Dunn]

Lets see how this slight north reform affects the models and interacting with hispaniola. I say we see a slight east shift again.

[hohnywx]

Where can we find the 6z and 18z EURO model graphics?

They are not available publicly for free, IIRC.

[northjaxpro]

the The Bahamas are prime hurricane breeding ground, very warm waters, no topography to disrupt the systems, put all that together with bernuda high and you can get a very efficient setup for hurricanes...thankfully its counteracted by troughs, shear, and hispanola

Conditions look very conducive for strengthening once Dorian gets into the Bahamas as low shear and warm ssts are just waiting for Dorian to take adavantage of soon in that region. A very concerning situation indeed for all along the Florida East Coast.

yesterday we were in the crosshairs, seems today heading more your direction, not easy to get a hurricane into Jacksonville though..navgem and ukmet hanging tough with the southerly solution

It is never easy to have any hurricane get very close to Jax metro because of the way the city is tucked in on the shape of the coastline here in Northeast Florida. But, lately in recent years, we have been impacted by tropical storms and hurricanes since 2012, with Beryl's rare landfall directly from the east , and being impacted by TS Julia in 2016, and Matthew's close appraoch in 2016 and of course Irma's impact with flooding in 2017. It seems like we are entering finally an active period of being impacted by these tropical cyclones here no doubt about it. We will see just what Dorian does, but it appears we will see some impacts from him this weekend. How severe the impacts will be? We hope to know the answer to that by Friday hopefully.

[WeatherEmperor]

Lets see how this slight north reform affects the models and interacting with hispaniola. I say we see a slight east shift again.

The Ukmet had this more northerly component in its forecast for a few days now. Maybe it was onto something? In addition to that, it is also showing a landfall closer to South Florida.

[BensonTCwatcher]

The "consensus" - starting to dislike that term - is for that ridge to build back coming into the weekend. That feature at least seems to be shaping up, although the strength of it has some differences between the global (ECMF, GFS. Legacy GFS, and UK), models are improved enough to rely on (of course HNC as the official forecast) though to know that we are in a "classic" synoptics setup here. A building ridge between Bermuda and the SE US coast, and a well developed circulation, TS, HC, etc. in the Hispaniola- Bahamas region. As others have stated, PR, Bahamas, Keys to Carolinas - the exact model solutions are going to vary some now until the weekend, but until we see a picture of 'bones" relative to Dorian, it needs attention. This setup has been major trouble in the past no matter what classification of storm survives N of Hisp. There isn't a major front or other feature this time to sweep it OTS. I am watching the ULL SE of TD 6 and how the models are handling that feature- Does not look like it will disrupt development- in fact it's looking more like it will ventilate Dorian as it moves NW.

[beachman80]

Everyone comparing this to Erin. Funny thing is this was one name away from being called Erin.