ATL: DORIAN - Models

[b0tzy29]

Anyone give the ICON any merit here? 977 MB at 120 hrs.

[beachman80]

By the way, if that ridge builds in, wouldn’t it move more westerly rather than WNW? Always seems like models overcompensate the north movement with a ridge over it. Even Andrew and Irma moved WSW with a ridge over it in the Atlantic. That’s assuming it makes it out of the Caribbean alive, which I have my doubts on.

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm not really a fan of ICON, don't know too much about it, but it's been consistant with being a northern outlier early in it's run, followed by a hard cut to the West, or even WSW. In fact, the ICON run from 84 hours onward reminds me a lot of Hurricane Ike's WSW decent, with the cone dropping from SFL into Cuba.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

At work here anyone have a most recent run of the UKMET.

[Evil Jeremy]

At work here anyone have a most recent run of the UKMET.

I don't have the intensity forecast, but looking at the 00z run plotted on SFWMD, it takes Dorian into somewhere around the Broward/Palm Beach county line

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/ima ... orm_05.gif

[WeatherEmperor]

At work here anyone have a most recent run of the UKMET.

This is the most recent run (blue line). The next run is around noon today




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[jlauderdal]

By the way, if that ridge builds in, wouldn’t it move more westerly rather than WNW? Always seems like models overcompensate the north movement with a ridge over it. Even Andrew and Irma moved WSW with a ridge over it in the Atlantic. That’s assuming it makes it out of the Caribbean alive, which I have my doubts on.

katrina moved wsw as it was heading towards south florida

[chris_fit]

Ensemble recap before the 12Z... worth noting that both the EURO and GFS ensemble means seem to be south of the operational runs.


GFS:


EURO:

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1166354005775265793

[p1nheadlarry]

I’m late to the party but I see the HWRF is pretty close to the NHC forecast track/intensity wise.

[artist]

Lets see how this slight north reform affects the models and interacting with hispaniola. I say we see a slight east shift again.

The Ukmet had this more northerly component in its forecast for a few days now. Maybe it was onto something? In addition to that, it is also showing a landfall closer to South Florida.

If I recall correctly, it was the ukmet that got Irma right. Looking at the model path it looks like it came close on hurricane Michael as well.

[beachman80]

By the way, if that ridge builds in, wouldn’t it move more westerly rather than WNW? Always seems like models overcompensate the north movement with a ridge over it. Even Andrew and Irma moved WSW with a ridge over it in the Atlantic. That’s assuming it makes it out of the Caribbean alive, which I have my doubts on.

katrina moved wsw as it was heading towards south florida

You’re right. This is why I’m a bit concerned for the Gulf. Seems to be the forgotten story. If HP gets a hold of this, it could bend it more west and WSW and all of a sudden this becomes a Katrina-like track where it sneaks into the eastern Gulf with 90 degree water temps and less shear.

[TheStormExpert]

Lets see how this slight north reform affects the models and interacting with hispaniola. I say we see a slight east shift again.

The Ukmet had this more northerly component in its forecast for a few days now. Maybe it was onto something? In addition to that, it is also showing a landfall closer to South Florida.

If I recall correctly, it was the ukmet that got Irma right. Looking at the model path it looks like it came close on hurricane Michael as well.

A lot of times though the UKMET is left biased.

[tolakram]

The use of weathermodels.com euro data is prohibited by their license terms, which specifically includes forbidding any cropping of the output. Follow Ryan Maue on twitter and if he posts a map then post the tweet here.

[boca]

Looks like South Florida is looking better than yesterday with the landfall moving up to the cape but it’s still too early but feeling better about it now.

[artist]

Looks like South Florida is looking better than yesterday with the landfall moving up to the cape but it’s still too early but feeling better about it now.

Wind speed probabilities for the 2 highest at this point-

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 35(41)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 34(41)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

[chris_fit]

Looks like South Florida is looking better than yesterday with the landfall moving up to the cape but it’s still too early but feeling better about it now.

I don't think this is accurate. Look at the ensembles I posted earlier. New ones coming out in next few hours, but the means are south and west of where the operational runs strike FL.

[beachman80]

So curious as to why models are moving this more WNW and NW if HP is going to be over it and the system will be weak.
Doesn’t HP equate to more westerly movement and doesn’t a weaker system equate to more westerly movement? Not understanding the WNW move to Fla. it’s why I actually believe the ICOn although a weaker storm than it has.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like South Florida is looking better than yesterday with the landfall moving up to the cape but it’s still too early but feeling better about it now.

Wind speed probabilities for the 2 highest at this point-

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 35(41)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 34(41)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

I’m a bit south of ft pierce. Local forecast calls for 40mph winds Saturday with 50mph gusts

[sma10]

I think a curious thing to keep an eye on: the models (UKmet/ICON) that are consistently to the right of all others in the short term (passing over Eastern tip of PR), are also consistently to the LEFT of all models in the longer term (and stronger, as well). This is likely due to the effects of the retreating ULL/stronger, rebuilding ridge .. but something I'm watching on future runs, as this seems to be a very significant future dynamic