ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Evil Jeremy]

Through 18 hours, the 12z GFS is a nudge farther East than any previous run.

[SeaBrz_FL]

Looks like South Florida is looking better than yesterday with the landfall moving up to the cape but it’s still too early but feeling better about it now.

LOL, NOT TO ME! Strangely reminiscent of David in 1979 - also over Labor Day Weekend. I hosted the party in my ramshackle tiny wood rental home and it was the only time I’ve ever felt terrified during a storm. Wonder if the big duct tape crosses are still on the windows.

[chris_fit]

12GFS A little EAST and stronger

[SouthFLTropics]

Significant NE jump at 42 hours on the 12z GFS. Shoots the Mona Passage.

[Evil Jeremy]

Legacy GFS also shoots through the Mona Passage, which it has been consistently forecasting. However, it's notably weaker this run than recent runs.

[stormlover2013]

Icon takes it right into south florida and into the gom.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=168

[catskillfire51]

Icon takes it right into south florida and into the gom.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=168

What’s interesting is the wave in front of it goes due west. Almost a dip sw at the end

[SoupBone]

Yikes, ICON has it moving nearly due West at 168 hours as a strong category 2 in the Central GoM. Either ICON needs to join the Crack is Whack support group, or the next few days will be nailbiters for those in the GoM.

[caneseddy]

Icon takes it right into south florida and into the gom.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=168

ICON is Andrew redux (not as strong). Also a big jump north from prior runs where it had Dorian going across Northern Xuba.

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=180

[Evil Jeremy]

Legacy GFX is the farthest East it's been in recent cycles through 72 hours. And normal/new GFS through 84 hours is roughly on the same track as it's been showing recently, but stronger.

Icon takes it right into south florida and into the gom.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=168

That's another jump North for ICON, which has gone from showing Cuba to the FL Straits. I don't trust these ICON runs though. Keeps going from NNW in the short term to a hard cut due West after.

[USTropics]

12z GFS goes through the Mona Passage, past 4 GFS run trend:

[Blown Away]

12z GFS, strongest run as it moves towards Florida. Maybe make Hurricane status >96 hours???

[Bhuggs]

GFS Legacy noticeably weaker this run. It had been one of the most consistent with strength

Edit: Strengthens it quickly after the islands. It's like the model was listening to me lol

[Evil Jeremy]

Both the new and legacy GFS runs are the farthest East we've seen from them on their approach to Florida. Looks like they are taking aim at North Florida.

What happened to that stout ridging?

[Siker]

12z UKMET:



TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 60.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2019 0 14.3N 60.9W 1008 30
0000UTC 28.08.2019 12 15.6N 63.3W 1007 38
1200UTC 28.08.2019 24 16.7N 65.0W 1006 36
0000UTC 29.08.2019 36 18.3N 66.4W 1007 40
1200UTC 29.08.2019 48 20.0N 67.8W 1004 41
0000UTC 30.08.2019 60 22.1N 68.9W 997 49
1200UTC 30.08.2019 72 24.1N 70.3W 988 58
0000UTC 31.08.2019 84 25.6N 72.1W 980 64
1200UTC 31.08.2019 96 26.5N 74.1W 976 68
0000UTC 01.09.2019 108 27.0N 75.9W 975 74
1200UTC 01.09.2019 120 27.2N 77.4W 975 74
0000UTC 02.09.2019 132 27.4N 78.3W 973 71
1200UTC 02.09.2019 144 27.0N 79.2W 969 72

[Blown Away]

12z GFS going hurricane into Florida...

[chris_fit]

Whoa with that WSW hook on the UKie

[USTropics]

Significantly stronger on the 12z GFS run:

[SouthFLTropics]

Both the new and legacy GFS runs are the farthest East we've seen from them on their approach to Florida. Looks like they are taking aim at North Florida.

What happened to that stout ridging?

It’s there but timing is going to mean everything. Slower Dorian means further South. Faster Dorian further North. At least that’s my take.