ATL: DORIAN - Models

[stormlover2013]

so Icon, Ukmet, more towards south florida and gfs way more north

[Blown Away]

12z GFS 987mb at landfall Cat 1/2

[Evil Jeremy]

I was just reading the UKMET text output and was throughout confused when plotting out the final data points. Not sure what to make of that at all. FWIW it's a shift to the North and East.

[beachman80]

UK track looks a bit like Katrina and so does ICON. And right now, with the ridge there being in place and the fact that many of these systems like to go SW when a ridge gets a hold of it (i.e. Katrina, Andrew, Irma), I would side with their thinking. I truly feel the GOM is in play here, especially if a ridge is over it. I don't see this thing getting any further north than Melbourne or the Cape.

[stormlover2013]

UK track looks a bit like Katrina and so does ICON. And right now, with the ridge there being in place and the fact that many of these systems like to go SW when a ridge gets a hold of it (i.e. Katrina, Andrew, Irma), I would side with their thinking. I truly feel the GOM is in play here, especially if a ridge is over it. I don't see this thing getting any further north than Melbourne or the Cape.

Rita also

[sma10]

Whoa with that WSW hook on the UKie

Without a doubt, the UK and ICON solutions are by far the most troubling. Not to say they are CORRECT ... But their general idea would probably put anywhere along the lower third of the FL peninsula in play, as well as the gulf. And undoubtedly a strong system

[stormlover2013]

Whoa with that WSW hook on the UKie

Without a doubt, the UK and ICON solutions are by far the most troubling. Not to say they are CORRECT ... But their general idea would probably put anywhere along the lower third of the FL peninsula in play, as well as the gulf. And undoubtedly a strong system

Yeah I feel that if icon and uk are right it will be a pretty strong system more water to work with and time, GFS solution maybe strong trop storm or weak cat 1

[WeatherEmperor]

Here is the latest Ukmet (blue line) for reference




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1166368999141068800

[sma10]

Whoa with that WSW hook on the UKie

Without a doubt, the UK and ICON solutions are by far the most troubling. Not to say they are CORRECT ... But their general idea would probably put anywhere along the lower third of the FL peninsula in play, as well as the gulf. And undoubtedly a strong system

Yeah I feel that if icon and uk are right it will be a pretty strong system more water to work with and time, GFS solution maybe strong trop storm or weak cat 1

I have been tracking these suckers more years than I care to mention, and generally do not get overly worked up. However: NEVER trust a NW moving TC in the Bahamas that then turns W or WSW. Nothing good ever comes from those

[northjaxpro]

Both the new and legacy GFS runs are the farthest East we've seen from them on their approach to Florida. Looks like they are taking aim at North Florida.

What happened to that stout ridging?

It’s there but timing is going to mean everything. Slower Dorian means further South. Faster Dorian further North. At least that’s my take.

There are several things in play, including what you pointed out here above in your post SFL Tropics. I am so carefully trying to decipher what the global models are interpreting. This is going to go back and forth until we get a consensus from the models, hopefully by Friday.

But no doubt everyone should be doing their preparatons all up and down the Florida Peninsula NOW, most specifically the East Coast of Florida. Do not wait until the last minute folks!!

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1166371131445694464

[Evil Jeremy]

CMC joining the north and east trend train

[JPmia]

Without a doubt, the UK and ICON solutions are by far the most troubling. Not to say they are CORRECT ... But their general idea would probably put anywhere along the lower third of the FL peninsula in play, as well as the gulf. And undoubtedly a strong system

Yeah I feel that if icon and uk are right it will be a pretty strong system more water to work with and time, GFS solution maybe strong trop storm or weak cat 1

I have been tracking these suckers more years than I care to mention, and generally do not get overly worked up. However: NEVER trust a NW moving TC in the Bahamas that then turns W or WSW. Nothing good ever comes from those

Said 1947.

[PTrackerLA]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1166382311077752832

[toad strangler]

12z CMC heading midway between Vero and Melbourne.

[sma10]

Yeah I feel that if icon and uk are right it will be a pretty strong system more water to work with and time, GFS solution maybe strong trop storm or weak cat 1

I have been tracking these suckers more years than I care to mention, and generally do not get overly worked up. However: NEVER trust a NW moving TC in the Bahamas that then turns W or WSW. Nothing good ever comes from those

Said 1947.

And several others. Luckily, it's a relatively rare event. It obviously has to do with a mixture of timing and stout ridging with the proper orientation.

The GFS and Euro tracks don't alarm me as much as the UK. If the UK turns out correct, you'll start to see the other 2 begin to shift more to the south

[Aric Dunn]

Whoa with that WSW hook on the UKie

Something you never want to see from any model near the coast..

[USTropics]

For the JMA, this is a very strong signal, most likely too north though:

[Siker]

GFS makes landfall Sunday afternoon and doesn't exit Florida until Friday evening when it heads offshore to the east.