ATL: DORIAN - Models

[ScottNAtlanta]

Without a doubt, the UK and ICON solutions are by far the most troubling. Not to say they are CORRECT ... But their general idea would probably put anywhere along the lower third of the FL peninsula in play, as well as the gulf. And undoubtedly a strong system

Yeah I feel that if icon and uk are right it will be a pretty strong system more water to work with and time, GFS solution maybe strong trop storm or weak cat 1

I have been tracking these suckers more years than I care to mention, and generally do not get overly worked up. However: NEVER trust a NW moving TC in the Bahamas that then turns W or WSW. Nothing good ever comes from those

I've been trying to think of an example where that happened and you DIDNT have a rapidly intensifying storm. I couldnt find an example. Plenty of example of storms that did. Andrew, Katrina, Jeanne, Frances, 1928 Lake Okeechobee Hurricane...all were pushed west into FL

[sma10]

Yeah I feel that if icon and uk are right it will be a pretty strong system more water to work with and time, GFS solution maybe strong trop storm or weak cat 1

I have been tracking these suckers more years than I care to mention, and generally do not get overly worked up. However: NEVER trust a NW moving TC in the Bahamas that then turns W or WSW. Nothing good ever comes from those

I've been trying to think of an example where that happened and you DIDNT have a rapidly intensifying storm. I couldnt find an example. Plenty of example of storms that did. Andrew, Katrina, Jeanne, Frances, 1928 Lake Okeechobee Hurricane...all were pushed west into FL

Oh there are more: Betsy, Donna, 1947, probably 1935 (if we had more data). The reason, of course, is for a storm to change course from NW to W (or WSW) requires a ridge of substantial strength, the unfortunate byproduct of which is absolutely ideal conditions.

[SFLcane]

Wow!

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1166393864279613440

[Kat5]

The trend with the models is north and east, expect that to continue as the models continue to show a weaker ridge.

[northjaxpro]

GFS makes landfall Sunday afternoon and doesn't exit Florida until Friday evening when it heads offshore to the east.

Yeah the 12Z GFS run is one that would bring major flooding potential all across North and Northeast Florida next week IF that comes to fruition.

Flooding from both torrential rain and potential Storm Surge flooding in the St. Johns River would really be major concerns.



Hope this changes!!

[SFLcane]

The trend with the models is north and east, expect that to continue as the models continue to show a weaker ridge.

Maybe NC tomorrow at this rate. Long way to go still with this one

[Evil Jeremy]

The trend with the models is north and east, expect that to continue as the models continue to show a weaker ridge.

I'm just concerned about an underestimated ridge, as has happened many many times in this general synoptic setup (Approach to Florida from the NE Caribbean)

[AutoPenalti]

The trend with the models is north and east, expect that to continue as the models continue to show a weaker ridge.

Trend? The only one that’s been showing a northern component has been the GFS.

[toad strangler]

The trend with the models is north and east, expect that to continue as the models continue to show a weaker ridge.

Trend? The only one that’s been showing a northern component has been the GFS.

Agree, There is no trend here. Everything is a crap shoot until post GA's.

[Kat5]

The trend with the models is north and east, expect that to continue as the models continue to show a weaker ridge.

Maybe NC tomorrow at this rate. Long way to go still with this one

Wouldn’t doubt that at all, anybody north of Jupiter beach should keep tabs on this storm, it’s unlikely at this point for it to make a direct hit south of there. If you live in south Florida, still be weary as we still haven’t seen the peak of this season yet!

[Evil Jeremy]

I disagree with the assessment that there's no trend. There has been a notable trend to the north and east over the past 12 hours. I'm just not convinced it will stick. GFS, UKMET, ICON, CMC have all made those adjustments this cycle. I agree with the toad strangler though, it's a crapshoot at the moment.

[Kat5]

The trend with the models is north and east, expect that to continue as the models continue to show a weaker ridge.

Trend? The only one that’s been showing a northern component has been the GFS.

CMC, Euro, GFS Ensembles, HMON.

[toad strangler]

I disagree with the assessment that there's no trend. There has been a notable trend to the north and east over the past 12 hours. I'm just not convinced it will stick. GFS, UKMET, ICON, CMC have all made those adjustments this cycle. I agree with the toad strangler though, it's a crapshoot at the moment.

Fair enough. In my eyes none of these model runs matter until Dorian or whats left of him actually clear the GA's.

[Kat5]

I disagree with the assessment that there's no trend. There has been a notable trend to the north and east over the past 12 hours. I'm just not convinced it will stick. GFS, UKMET, ICON, CMC have all made those adjustments this cycle. I agree with the toad strangler though, it's a crapshoot at the moment.

Fair enough. In my eyes none of these model runs matter until Dorian or whats left of him actually clear the GA's.

Understood.

[CourierPR]

The trend with the models is north and east, expect that to continue as the models continue to show a weaker ridge.

Maybe NC tomorrow at this rate. Long way to go still with this one

Wouldn’t doubt that at all, anybody north of Jupiter beach should keep tabs on this storm, it’s unlikely at this point for it to make a direct hit south of there. If you live in south Florida, still be weary as we still haven’t seen the peak of this season yet!

So your meteorological expertise now puts South Florida in the clear. Now I can rest easy tonight.

[Evil Jeremy]

The trend with the models is north and east, expect that to continue as the models continue to show a weaker ridge.

Maybe NC tomorrow at this rate. Long way to go still with this one

Wouldn’t doubt that at all, anybody north of Jupiter beach should keep tabs on this storm, it’s unlikely at this point for it to make a direct hit south of there. If you live in south Florida, still be weary as we still haven’t seen the peak of this season yet!

Way way way too early to reach that conclusion.

[stormlover2013]

Yeah no trend yet, I’ve been tracking storms for 25 years. No trend what So ever, models have been bad this far out this year and usually are, 3/4 days out is when u need to trust them

[StormLogic]

ICON bullish on Dorian gaining mad Latitude and full on run into the GOM, a track from Southern tip O Florida then onwards would almost resemble 05' Rita if it keeps gaining Latitude after that. YIKES, more time over GOM and SSTs are sure hot off the S tip of FL for sure ITS DEF HURRICANE SEASON. SWITCH FLIPPED?

[Kat5]

Maybe NC tomorrow at this rate. Long way to go still with this one

Wouldn’t doubt that at all, anybody north of Jupiter beach should keep tabs on this storm, it’s unlikely at this point for it to make a direct hit south of there. If you live in south Florida, still be weary as we still haven’t seen the peak of this season yet!

So your meteorological expertise now puts South Florida in the clear. Now I can rest easy tonight.

Hence the word “unlikely” never said cleared. And I’m not a meteorologist, just an outsider throwing in his two cents.

[AutoPenalti]

The trend with the models is north and east, expect that to continue as the models continue to show a weaker ridge.

Trend? The only one that’s been showing a northern component has been the GFS.

CMC, Euro, GFS Ensembles, HMON.

Euro hasn't trended north at all from what I've seen.