ATL: DORIAN - Models

[MetsIslesNoles]

GFS makes landfall Sunday afternoon and doesn't exit Florida until Friday evening when it heads offshore to the east.

It'll be a wonderful time in the panhandle if a solution like that occurs but a bit more south over the bay. I imagine it would be some epic flooding rains and with enough wind to (40-50 is plenty) to take out a lot of trees and power.

[Kat5]

Just wanted to show how apparent the trend is, we can take the TVCN as an example.

[StormLogic]

icon takes dorian into gom where she hits some good fuel and grows bigger and then heads west

[CrazyC83]

Wow!

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1166393864279613440

Could it miss Puerto Rico to the right?

[stormlover2013]

Just wanted to show how apparent the trend is, we can take the TVCN as an example.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al052019/tr13.png

There is no trend, wait till it gets passed the mountains for a trend, I have done this to long to say there is a trend 5-7 days out

[ObsessedMiami]

Wouldn’t doubt that at all, anybody north of Jupiter beach should keep tabs on this storm, it’s unlikely at this point for it to make a direct hit south of there. If you live in south Florida, still be weary as we still haven’t seen the peak of this season yet!

So your meteorological expertise now puts South Florida in the clear. Now I can rest easy tonight.

Hence the word “unlikely” never said cleared. And I’m not a meteorologist, just an outsider throwing in his two cents.

Whatever happened to the old disclaimer one had to use if they were posting their opinion and not a professional forecast?
I remember they used to be strict on that when storms threatened populated areas because some may log on only once and see that post and figure its all clear.

[chris_fit]

Notable change in the GFS Ensembles - MUCH stronger - MUCH more defined W Bend

12Z




06Z

[Hammy]

So your meteorological expertise now puts South Florida in the clear. Now I can rest easy tonight.

Hence the word “unlikely” never said cleared. And I’m not a meteorologist, just an outsider throwing in his two cents.

Whatever happened to the old disclaimer one had to use if they were posting their opinion and not a professional forecast?
I remember they used to be strict on that when storms threatened populated areas because some may log on only once and see that post and figure its all clear.

If I remember correctly there were actual legal liability issues that prompted that in the first place and a later ruling rendered it unnecessary.

[NotSparta]

So your meteorological expertise now puts South Florida in the clear. Now I can rest easy tonight.

Hence the word “unlikely” never said cleared. And I’m not a meteorologist, just an outsider throwing in his two cents.

It's on the top of the page
Whatever happened to the old disclaimer one had to use if they were posting their opinion and not a professional forecast?
I remember they used to be strict on that when storms threatened populated areas because some may log on only once and see that post and figure its all clear.

.

The disclaimer is still there, at the top

[Evil Jeremy]

Not what I was expecting from the ensembles given the jump N from the operational. Between those ensembles, ICON, and the weird UKMET dive WSW at day 5, it’s clear Dorian will be shoved west eventually. I wonder if there’s a hypothetical limit to how far N it can get before feeling the ridge. And also, how would a stronger Dorian that misses Hispaniola to the E interact with the ridge.

[toad strangler]

Some of already said it before. Nothing ever good comes from a track like this historically. #UKMET

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1166392770766036994

[tolakram]

I'm starting to get concerned about a stall and flooding. A non sexy storm hitting and stalling is extremely dangerous. UK sends it southwest, GFS stalls the vorticity over the panhandle, and GFS legacy has it meandering over Ga and the panhandle. The 0Z Euro washing out the vorticity but also shows it lingering.

This is still very far out but something to watch.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro init

[robbielyn]

I disagree with the assessment that there's no trend. There has been a notable trend to the north and east over the past 12 hours. I'm just not convinced it will stick. GFS, UKMET, ICON, CMC have all made those adjustments this cycle. I agree with the toad strangler though, it's a crapshoot at the moment.

Fair enough. In my eyes none of these model runs matter until Dorian or whats left of him actually clear the GA's.

what’s GA?

[toad strangler]

I disagree with the assessment that there's no trend. There has been a notable trend to the north and east over the past 12 hours. I'm just not convinced it will stick. GFS, UKMET, ICON, CMC have all made those adjustments this cycle. I agree with the toad strangler though, it's a crapshoot at the moment.

Fair enough. In my eyes none of these model runs matter until Dorian or whats left of him actually clear the GA's.

what’s GA?

Greater Antilles

[AdamFirst]

what’s GA?

The Greater Antilles - Puerto Rico and Hispaniola

[CrazyC83]

A stall over the Labor Day weekend would be a business disaster even if it is a weak storm. Yet it is looking very possible...it will be hard pressed to go north in the eastern Gulf, while if a ridge blocks to the west...I wonder if the models are on to something?

Do they account for the new center though?

[Kohlecane]

Euro Initialized A tad bit south IMO!

[gatorcane]

Look at all of these GFS ensembles zeroing in on SE Florida also they are coming in stronger. By no means is South Florida in the clear. Let us hope the big islands can severely disrupt Dorian:

[La Sirena]

So your meteorological expertise now puts South Florida in the clear. Now I can rest easy tonight.

Hence the word “unlikely” never said cleared. And I’m not a meteorologist, just an outsider throwing in his two cents.

Whatever happened to the old disclaimer one had to use if they were posting their opinion and not a professional forecast?
I remember they used to be strict on that when storms threatened populated areas because some may log on only once and see that post and figure its all clear.

Was wondering the same thing myself.