ATL: DORIAN - Models

[tolakram]

[AubreyStorm]

https://i.imgur.com/5YhpDBM.png

TS? Or Hurricane?

[Siker]

A stall over the Labor Day weekend would be a business disaster even if it is a weak storm. Yet it is looking very possible...it will be hard pressed to go north in the eastern Gulf, while if a ridge blocks to the west...I wonder if the models are on to something?

Do they account for the new center though?

Not very likely given it's such a small scale feature and it only happened around 15z. Maybe some higher res models will pick up on it though.

[tolakram]

https://i.imgur.com/5YhpDBM.png

TS? Or Hurricane?

Barely a tropical storm.

[TheProfessor]

12z HMON has a Cat 1 hurricane into Miami

[robbielyn]

Fair enough. In my eyes none of these model runs matter until Dorian or whats left of him actually clear the GA's.

what’s GA?

Greater Antilles

oh ok i was so focused on it passing through the mona and maybe hispaniola is part of the GA, i was racking my brain trying to figure it out and decided to embarrass myself by asking it publicly vs. pm’ing you. but now i know.

[jdjaguar]

I'm starting to get concerned about a stall and flooding. A non sexy storm hitting and stalling is extremely dangerous. UK sends it southwest, GFS stalls the vorticity over the panhandle, and GFS legacy has it meandering over Ga and the panhandle. The 0Z Euro washing out the vorticity but also shows it lingering.

This is still very far out but something to watch.

https://i.imgur.com/Qd316Tq.png

Does that show up to 2 feet of rain over Jax?

[SFLcane]

12z HMON has a Cat 1 hurricane into Miami

Big change there... was not really developing Dorian previously.

[Nimbus]

The 12Z HWRF is showing the effects of shear and high terrain near Hispaniola.
There is currently an upper level circulation north of Hispaniola that would impart shear from the west if it persists. So beyond that issue its going to be difficult to forecast, if Dorian weakens south of the Dominican Republic it could even dissipate.

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM into Miami / SE Florida:

[tolakram]

[SFLcane]

12z HMON...

[TheProfessor]

The 12z HWRF has a WSW moving hurricane making landfall on the central Florida coast.

Edited for correction.

[AdamFirst]

NAVGEM has been extremely consistent from run to run with a landfall down in SFL. For what it's worth, anyway

[chris_fit]

EURO 72hrs

[Evil Jeremy]

12z HMON has a Cat 1 hurricane into Miami

I'm not familiar with the HMON's reliability, but I can say this is the first run of it's past four that hits mainland FL. All the others were into the Keys or Straits.

[Kohlecane]

Wow Big shift N @ 72 hours from the 00z to 12z Euro.

Also what's a good link for HMON 12z

[tolakram]

Wow Big shift N @ 72 hours from the 00z to 12z Euro.

Also what's a good link for HMON 12z

Tropical Tidbits for almost all models.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=05L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2019082712&fh=72

[robbielyn]

https://i.imgur.com/cyUjiXp.png

Dorian being that close to hispaniola probably will beat it up a little but maybe not too bad since it’s a weak storm to begin with. stronger storms really get more affected although can survive if offshore.

[TheProfessor]

Wow Big shift N @ 72 hours from the 00z to 12z Euro.

Also what's a good link for HMON 12z

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo ... 82712&fh=6