ATL: DORIAN - Models

[SFLcane]

Wow Big shift N @ 72 hours from the 00z to 12z Euro.

Also what's a good link for HMON 12z

HMON is posted above..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=120

[sma10]

:uarrow: Not what I was expecting from the ensembles given the jump N from the operational. Between those ensembles, ICON, and the weird UKMET dive WSW at day 5, it’s clear Dorian will be shoved west eventually. I wonder if there’s a hypothetical limit to how far N it can get before feeling the ridge. And also, how would a stronger Dorian that misses Hispaniola to the E interact with the ridge.

We are used to the adage "the stronger the storm, the more poleward it goes". This is often the case - but not always! Sometimes with very strong ridges, the deeper steering sends it further W

[toad strangler]

:uarrow: Not what I was expecting from the ensembles given the jump N from the operational. Between those ensembles, ICON, and the weird UKMET dive WSW at day 5, it’s clear Dorian will be shoved west eventually. I wonder if there’s a hypothetical limit to how far N it can get before feeling the ridge. And also, how would a stronger Dorian that misses Hispaniola to the E interact with the ridge.

We are used to the adage "the stronger the storm, the more poleward it goes". This is often the case - but not always! Sometimes with very strong ridges, the deeper steering sends it further W

In standard or traditional setups yes. This is working out to be quite anomalous.

[p1nheadlarry]

:uarrow: Not what I was expecting from the ensembles given the jump N from the operational. Between those ensembles, ICON, and the weird UKMET dive WSW at day 5, it’s clear Dorian will be shoved west eventually. I wonder if there’s a hypothetical limit to how far N it can get before feeling the ridge. And also, how would a stronger Dorian that misses Hispaniola to the E interact with the ridge.

We are used to the adage "the stronger the storm, the more poleward it goes". This is often the case - but not always! Sometimes with very strong ridges, the deeper steering sends it further W

Stronger yes but also larger, because the change in Coriolis acceleration with latitude (beta) is greater if the storm spans a wider swath.

[chris_fit]

Euro 96hrs

[chris_fit]

And no where to go except to FL

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1166414134692503553

[Frank P]

The 12z HWRF has a WSW moving hurricane making landfall on the central Texas coast.

HWRF 12z I just looked at hit the the FL central east coast near the cape area at h126 then stops, appears to be moving NW ish... where did you get that run that goes all the way to the TX coast?

[chris_fit]

Euro Day 5

[Stormcenter]

Don’t like the trend of models somehow pushing
Dorian into the GOM in some form or manner.

[TheProfessor]

The 12z HWRF has a WSW moving hurricane making landfall on the central Texas coast.

HWRF 12z I just looked at hit the the FL central east coast near the cape area at h126 then stops, appears to be moving NW ish... where did you get that run that goes all the way to the TX coast?

Sorry this was a mistake I meant WSW into the Central Florida Coast.

[Evil Jeremy]

Essentially the exact same landfall point as yesterday's 12z run, but stronger.

Looks like landfall is south of the 00z run. WNW approach over the 48 hours prior to landfall, whereas 00z was very NW.

[Frank P]

Don’t like the trend of models somehow pushing
Dorian into the GOM in some form or manner.

Waiting to see where the Euro ends up, maybe Gulf maybe not

[tolakram]

Not a good trend.

[sma10]

Feel free to correct me, but I sense the GFS and Euro are starting to trend slightly towards Uk solution. The first couple or so days moving further East (avoiding Hispaniola for the most part), then on days 3-5 a more sharper turn to more W/WNW as opposed to NW. Not sure if it will transpire exactly as trending, but a bad trend, imo

Notice as well, that as these models vectors change from a NW to a more Westerly direction, strengthening goes up in lockstep

[BensonTCwatcher]

Euro and GFS in agreement on Sunday on the space coast.

[robbielyn]

Not a good trend.

not a hurricane either. came in at 994mb 63mph winds. so some good news.

[Evil Jeremy]

Feel free to correct me, but I sense the GFS and Euro are starting to trend slightly towards Uk solution. The first couple or so days moving further East (avoiding Hispaniola for the most part), then on days 3-5 a more sharper turn to more W/WNW as opposed to NW. Not sure if it will transpire exactly as trending, but a bad trend, imo

It's fair to say the UKMET has also been gradually shifting North, and it along with the other globals are slowly forming a consensus.... that still has a lot of uncertainty. It does bear repeating though, that the UKMET was the first model, from the very onset, to consistently show Dorian missing Hispaniola to the East and North. It remains the main model I'm looking at this week. UKMET has been the rightmost model run to run. And Dorian is consistently moving right of the forecast track. 2+2=4

[chris_fit]

[tolakram]