ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

5pm cone will be interesting. If I were a betting man, I'd say the 5 day point would remain the same, but days 2-4 more North and East, with a more pronounced bend back to the west than currently indicated.

that sounds like the euro

[TheProfessor]

Erin 1995 (Vero Beach /Navarre Bch) --- has similar path to newest ECWMF for Dorian

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/67/Erin_1995_track.png

This is scary and sad for those who are still recovering from last year's Michael damage.

Let's hope it doesn't do this....

Wasn't Michael 2016??

You're thinking of Mathew, Michael was last year.

[jdjaguar]

Erin 1995 (Vero Beach /Navarre Bch) --- has similar path to newest ECWMF for Dorian

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/67/Erin_1995_track.png

This is scary and sad for those who are still recovering from last year's Michael damage.

Let's hope it doesn't do this....

Wasn't Michael 2016??

Matthew was 2016
Irma 2017
Michael 2018
Dorian 2019

[Siker]

Sure looks to be heading on a nnw course the last hour or soo..

Agreed. Looks like center remains on the eastern edge of that convective blowup. Curved band on radar visible on IR satellite as little pop ups towards Dominica.

[p1nheadlarry]

Erin 1995 (Vero Beach /Navarre Bch) --- has similar path to newest ECWMF for Dorian

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/67/Erin_1995_track.png

This is scary and sad for those who are still recovering from last year's Michael damage.

Let's hope it doesn't do this....

Everything west of Thomas Dr made it out ok from Michael. Literally night and day within the same county that saw the landfall of a Cat 5 (think north Dade vs South Dade after Andrew). There was substantially more damage in Tallahassee than in Ft Walton/Destin, for example.

Probably the worst thing that would happen for the regions affected by Michael if Dorian was a carbon-copy of Erin is push water into Apalachee Bay.

[Weatherboy1]

Seems like outflow improving on the northern side of Dorian in last several frames.

[GCANE]

CoC integrity seems to have improved....

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

Looks to be 20 to 25 miles wide

[tolakram]

Please stay on topic and watch the language, even if you try to mask it.

[gatorcane]

All I know is that with Irma just 3 days out looked like SE Florida would get clobbered and look what happened. Models kept inching more and more west. The track into Central florida is by no means set and the uncertainty is reflected in the ensembles as well as some other global models like the UKMET which bring Dorian through the southern 1/3 of the peninsula or even through the FL straits. I actually would feel more comfortable if the models were pointing at South Florida this far out. But first let’s see how Dorian looks once passing Hispaniola and PR.

[sma10]

What is interesting is that the storm could end up more right during the first few days but end up more left in the end as ridging has more time to build in.

But the A word comes to mind...

Can't say it.

Do not say it, do not say it, do not say it!

Ironically though, considering how often that analog is abused to death, this is one situation that maybe it is actually apropos (in size and movement only! God forbid strength)

[toad strangler]

All I know is that with Irma just 3 days out looked like SE Florida would get clobbered and look what happened. Models kept inching more and more west. The track into Central florida is by no means set and the uncertainty is reflected in the ensembles as well as some other global models like the UKMET which bring Dorian through the southern 1/3 of the peninsula or even through the FL straits. I actually would feel more comfortable if the models were pointing at South Florida this far out. But first let’s see how Dorian looks once passing Hispaniola and PR.

I've been saying it for two days. Let's see what remains of Dorian post Greater Antilles first. AND that there is so much real estate between him and the FL peninsula that all kinds of things can happen including into the GOM or further up the SE coast.

[bqknight]

Looking at radar...I honestly wouldn't be shocked if Dorian misses PR to the right or comes very close to the right side of PR.

[BlowHard]

I am not trying to be snarky, this is an honest to go question from someone who has only been tracking hurricanes for about five years....Why do so many people want to draw conclusions based on a hurricane track from years past? The likelihood of a hurricane copying a previous hurricane's track simply because they are in similar spots or even have similar "stats" seems ridiculous to me. Many things change that affect a hurricane and are not recorded. Items like sea surface temperature, the amount of SAL, shear, wind steering currents, etc.

Is there something I am missing? Or is it PTSD from going through hurricanes? I know when I see one tracking the course Maria took, I get freaked out but I also know that it doesn't necessarily predict outcome. It is more like deja vu than a prediction of the future.

Also, since I am already posting, I am gonna go ahead and remind folks that those in PR are tired of hearing conjecture about what will happen three days form now in Florida.

Just sayin.

[Evil Jeremy]

All I know is that with Irma just 3 days out looked like SE Florida would get clobbered and look what happened. Models kept inching more and more west. The track into Central florida is by no means set and the uncertainty is reflected in the ensembles as well as some other global models like the UKMET which bring Dorian through the southern 1/3 of the peninsula or even through the FL straits. I actually would feel more comfortable if the models were pointing at South Florida this far out. But first let’s see how Dorian looks once passing Hispaniola and PR.

As another example, and a good cautionary tale, here's the models and NHC track for Matthew '16 three days before it started to scrape half of the Florida east coast:

[Evil Jeremy]

I am not trying to be snarky, this is an honest to go question from someone who has only been tracking hurricanes for about five years....Why do so many people want to draw conclusions based on a hurricane track from years past? The likelihood of a hurricane copying a previous hurricane's track simply because they are in similar spots or even have similar "stats" seems ridiculous to me. Many things change that affect a hurricane and are not recorded. Items like sea surface temperature, the amount of SAL, shear, wind steering currents, etc.

Is there something I am missing? Or is it PTSD from going through hurricanes? I know when I see one tracking the course Maria took, I get freaked out but I also know that it doesn't necessarily predict outcome. It is more like deja vu than a prediction of the future.

Also, since I am already posting, I am gonna go ahead and remind folks that those in PR are tired of hearing conjecture about what will happen three days form now in Florida.

Just sayin.

Me personally, I'm way too used to the Atlantic ridging being underestimated, leading to continuous shifts to the west for systems approaching FL from the SE.

[p1nheadlarry]

The outflow is starting to look better. Notice the streaky cirrus exiting the system seemingly uniform in all directions (would like to say isotropic but sounds/looks too much like isentropic) is being replaced by a more dense layer of spiral clouds. The streaky cirrus are indicative of the effects dry air entrainment has on the storm.

What is interesting is that the storm could end up more right during the first few days but end up more left in the end as ridging has more time to build in.

But the A word comes to mind...

Can't say it.

Do not say it, do not say it, do not say it!

Ironically though, considering how often that analog is abused to death, this is one situation that maybe it is actually apropos (in size and movement only! God forbid strength)

This will be me any time development is expected from the "central american gyre" late-season.

[sma10]

All I know is that with Irma just 3 days out looked like SE Florida would get clobbered and look what happened. Models kept inching more and more west. The track into Central florida is by no means set and the uncertainty is reflected in the ensembles as well as some other global models like the UKMET which bring Dorian through the southern 1/3 of the peninsula or even through the FL straits. I actually would feel more comfortable if the models were pointing at South Florida this far out. But first let’s see how Dorian looks once passing Hispaniola and PR.

The other thing is that sometimes we forget the difference between human scale and geographic scale. For example, right now the UK suggests a landfall around 27.0 (Jupiter) in 5 days. What if landfall actually verifies at 26.0 (Miami). Big fat difference on the human scale, but geographically that would be a rousing success for the model 5 days out.

[toad strangler]

All I know is that with Irma just 3 days out looked like SE Florida would get clobbered and look what happened. Models kept inching more and more west. The track into Central florida is by no means set and the uncertainty is reflected in the ensembles as well as some other global models like the UKMET which bring Dorian through the southern 1/3 of the peninsula or even through the FL straits. I actually would feel more comfortable if the models were pointing at South Florida this far out. But first let’s see how Dorian looks once passing Hispaniola and PR.

As another example, and a good cautionary tale, here's the models and NHC track for Matthew '16 three days before it started to scrape half of the Florida east coast:

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Yep, just too much real estate to cover AND interaction with the Greater Antilles. I sound like a broken record but it's the truth.

[p1nheadlarry]

I am not trying to be snarky, this is an honest to go question from someone who has only been tracking hurricanes for about five years....Why do so many people want to draw conclusions based on a hurricane track from years past? The likelihood of a hurricane copying a previous hurricane's track simply because they are in similar spots or even have similar "stats" seems ridiculous to me. Many things change that affect a hurricane and are not recorded. Items like sea surface temperature, the amount of SAL, shear, wind steering currents, etc.

Is there something I am missing? Or is it PTSD from going through hurricanes? I know when I see one tracking the course Maria took, I get freaked out but I also know that it doesn't necessarily predict outcome. It is more like deja vu than a prediction of the future.

Also, since I am already posting, I am gonna go ahead and remind folks that those in PR are tired of hearing conjecture about what will happen three days form now in Florida.

Just sayin.

I think analogs can be insightful if the synoptic picture bears similarities. But otherwise I agree. Part of it is due to memory, or even "storm PTSD," and the pattern-recognition we all naturally have. In the long-term aggregate, storms tend to take certain tracks more often than others, but reduced individually they're like fingerprints (no two are alike).

[AubreyStorm]

The outflow is starting to look better. Notice the streaky cirrus exiting the system seemingly uniform in all directions (would like to say isotropic but sounds/looks too much like isentropic) is being replaced by a more dense layer of spiral clouds. The streaky cirrus are indicative of the effects dry air entrainment has on the storm.

But the A word comes to mind...

Can't say it.

Do not say it, do not say it, do not say it!

Ironically though, considering how often that analog is abused to death, this is one situation that maybe it is actually apropos (in size and movement only! God forbid strength)

This will be me any time development is expected from the "central american gyre" late-season.

Any loop? Please link