
ATL: DORIAN - Models
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
2 recurves ots from this suite


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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Bocadude85 wrote:The 18z ICON has Dorian moving due west as a strengthening hurricane through the Northwestern Bahamas with a landfall in S.Fla in 120 hours
And once again, it has shifted North relative to it's prior runs. It keeps making that due-West turn on a dime after around 70 hours.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Bocadude85 wrote:The 18z ICON has Dorian moving due west as a strengthening hurricane through the Northwestern Bahamas with a landfall in S.Fla in 120 hours
Large area of low pressure in the central gulf at that time...how will that affect Dorian I wonder?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Bocadude85 wrote:The 18z ICON has Dorian moving due west as a strengthening hurricane through the Northwestern Bahamas with a landfall in S.Fla in 120 hours
I think I know of similar storm who took a track pretty close to that in 92.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
SunnyThoughts wrote:Bocadude85 wrote:The 18z ICON has Dorian moving due west as a strengthening hurricane through the Northwestern Bahamas with a landfall in S.Fla in 120 hours
Large area of low pressure in the central gulf at that time...how will that affect Dorian I wonder?
Look how much larger it’s than Dorian
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
It looks like the 18Z GFS may come in further north because it is further northeast at hour 54. The northward trend seems to be holding. I personally don't like seeing this.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
LarryWx wrote:It looks like the 18Z GFS may come in further north because it is further northeast at hour 54. The northward trend seems to be holding. I personally don't like seeing this.
And stronger. Very little disruption this time as it goes clean over PR that is a first. I have a feeling this run will be much stronger at the end.
Last edited by blp on Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
18z GFS through 48hrs, up and over Puerto Rico and north of Hispaniola, I’m thinking this run is going to be slightly different then the 12z, IE stronger and a different landfall location in Florida.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
SunnyThoughts wrote:Bocadude85 wrote:The 18z ICON has Dorian moving due west as a strengthening hurricane through the Northwestern Bahamas with a landfall in S.Fla in 120 hours
Large area of low pressure in the central gulf at that time...how will that affect Dorian I wonder?
If there, it would turn the system north and likely shear it.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
18z Legacy GFS tries to RI after PR
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Evil Jeremy wrote:Bocadude85 wrote:The 18z ICON has Dorian moving due west as a strengthening hurricane through the Northwestern Bahamas with a landfall in S.Fla in 120 hours
And once again, it has shifted North relative to it's prior runs. It keeps making that due-West turn on a dime after around 70 hours.
I think it’s would be stronger on that track than 975, but it is getting stronger to the coast. It’s also not a typical track, but you have to respect all models building in high pressure over top. I haven’t been following Dorian much with 90L, but you’d have to think if the track does go farther north and threaten South Carolina or North Carolina it would probably be a major. I hope it doesn’t verify for SEFL or farther up the coast
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
18z GFS Legacy also coming in significantly stronger.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Bocadude85 wrote:The 18z ICON has Dorian moving due west as a strengthening hurricane through the Northwestern Bahamas with a landfall in S.Fla in 120 hours
ICON and Uk have been in the same basic camp every run for the past couple days: furthest East initially, furthest West down the line.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
18z GFS stronger this run and further north.
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I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
So with these further north runs, I’m guessing the HP won’t be there?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Both the FV3 and Legacy GFS are considerably stronger.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
18z may approach Major status on this run.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Kazmit wrote:18z GFS stronger this run and further north.
'

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Nothing to sneeze at here


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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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