ATL: DORIAN - Models

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1021 Postby Incident_MET » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:43 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Incident_MET wrote:Anyone know when G4 data will be included ? Which model run?

not sure they flew today. but there was a P3 doing synoptic and surround environment.. that will make it into the 00z.

Sounds like wed afternoon according to the POD.
Last edited by Incident_MET on Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1022 Postby Steve » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:43 pm

p1nheadlarry wrote:GFS may have strengthened Dorian much more here because of baroclinicity. That's what the simulated IR looks like anyhow.


It would be early in the season for that to happen. I think it’s a matter of anything coming up in the SW Atlantic north of 24-25 is primed. You could be right, but it would seem to be early for baroclinic processes in that area.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1023 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:44 pm

beachman80 wrote:Don’t get too excited guys. Meteorologist here in Fla. said this thing is going to get ripped apart by shear in next 48 hrs. About to hit a brutal environment. Said Florida should be fine.

May I ask who that meteorologists was? So I can never listen to him/her again...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1024 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:44 pm

That word consistency is unknown to the GFS, if other models come aboard then kudos to the GFS but the ECM and UKMET have insisted on a stronger ridge pushing Dorian westward although they have trended a bit further northward.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1025 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:45 pm

beachman80 wrote:Don’t get too excited guys. Meteorologist here in Fla. said this thing is going to get ripped apart by shear in next 48 hrs. About to hit a brutal environment. Said Florida should be fine.


I highly doubt your met. said anything like that. Mine certainly aren't.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1026 Postby sma10 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:45 pm

beachman80 wrote:Don’t get too excited guys. Meteorologist here in Fla. said this thing is going to get ripped apart by shear in next 48 hrs. About to hit a brutal environment. Said Florida should be fine.


Yikes. The current model trends are literally the complete opposite of this
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1027 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:46 pm

Incident_MET wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Incident_MET wrote:Anyone know when G4 data will be included ? Which model run?

not sure they flew today. but there was a P3 doing synoptic and surround environment.. that will make it into the 00z.

Sounds like wed afternoon according to the POD.


Cool we need more data !

but todays P3 flight will help as well..

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1028 Postby toad strangler » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:48 pm

Twitter pretty quiet ATM after watching that :lol:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1029 Postby FireRat » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:50 pm

Wow, hopefully that meteorologist was misunderstood...not a wise thing to say FL will be fine this early in the game. Everything is on the table still, first we should see how the models perform with Dorian after he passes Puerto Rico, so this thread might get even more interesting come Thursday.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1030 Postby beachman80 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:54 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
beachman80 wrote:Don’t get too excited guys. Meteorologist here in Fla. said this thing is going to get ripped apart by shear in next 48 hrs. About to hit a brutal environment. Said Florida should be fine.


I highly doubt your met. said anything like that. Mine certainly aren't.


Well, he did. He showed the upper level winds that it's heading into and said he didn't think it would survive it. Said it's headed into a brutal environment. But he did to keep an eye on it and check in a couple times each day to see its status, but he said don't get too excited about it.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1031 Postby hohnywx » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:55 pm

beachman80 wrote:Don’t get too excited guys. Meteorologist here in Fla. said this thing is going to get ripped apart by shear in next 48 hrs. About to hit a brutal environment. Said Florida should be fine.


Oh thank goodness. We should just close this thread.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1032 Postby Blinhart » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:57 pm

beachman80 wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
beachman80 wrote:Don’t get too excited guys. Meteorologist here in Fla. said this thing is going to get ripped apart by shear in next 48 hrs. About to hit a brutal environment. Said Florida should be fine.


I highly doubt your met. said anything like that. Mine certainly aren't.


Well, he did. He showed the upper level winds that it's heading into and said he didn't think it would survive it. Said it's headed into a brutal environment. But he did to keep an eye on it and check in a couple times each day to see its status, but he said don't get too excited about it.


No meteorologist should ever state something like that, especially when everything is showing that this system has a great chance of being a Hurricane when making landfall on the coast of Florida. Nothing is showing this falling completely apart, so that is just a bad move by him/her.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1033 Postby jdjaguar » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:58 pm

beachman80 wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
beachman80 wrote:Don’t get too excited guys. Meteorologist here in Fla. said this thing is going to get ripped apart by shear in next 48 hrs. About to hit a brutal environment. Said Florida should be fine.


I highly doubt your met. said anything like that. Mine certainly aren't.


Well, he did. He showed the upper level winds that it's heading into and said he didn't think it would survive it. Said it's headed into a brutal environment. But he did to keep an eye on it and check in a couple times each day to see its status, but he said don't get too excited about it.

Meanwhile outflow channels establishing, and shear relaxing as he churns towards PR
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1034 Postby p1nheadlarry » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:59 pm

Steve wrote:
p1nheadlarry wrote:GFS may have strengthened Dorian much more here because of baroclinicity. That's what the simulated IR looks like anyhow.


It would be early in the season for that to happen. I think it’s a matter of anything coming up in the SW Atlantic north of 24-25 is primed. You could be right, but it would seem to be early for baroclinic processes in that area.


I agree but August has been cooler than average for the mid-Atlantic. Wish there was a product that calculated Eady rates available online.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1035 Postby chris_fit » Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:00 pm

Anyone have the 18z Euro?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1036 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:01 pm

storm4u wrote:Woah legacy down to 923


Yeah that was an eyebrow raiser to see that. Just.one run though thankfully.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1037 Postby beachman80 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:03 pm

Blinhart wrote:
beachman80 wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
I highly doubt your met. said anything like that. Mine certainly aren't.


Well, he did. He showed the upper level winds that it's heading into and said he didn't think it would survive it. Said it's headed into a brutal environment. But he did to keep an eye on it and check in a couple times each day to see its status, but he said don't get too excited about it.


No meteorologist should ever state something like that, especially when everything is showing that this system has a great chance of being a Hurricane when making landfall on the coast of Florida. Nothing is showing this falling completely apart, so that is just a bad move by him/her.


The meteorologist on TWC said something similar, too, although not as drastic. I don't know the guy's name on TWC, but he did say this thing is going to have a tough time surviving the shear as it moves north of HIspanola. But he he also said while he's not sure it will make it through the shear, more models are reviving it and you can't ignore that.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1038 Postby Ken711 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:12 pm

beachman80 wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
beachman80 wrote:
Well, he did. He showed the upper level winds that it's heading into and said he didn't think it would survive it. Said it's headed into a brutal environment. But he did to keep an eye on it and check in a couple times each day to see its status, but he said don't get too excited about it.


No meteorologist should ever state something like that, especially when everything is showing that this system has a great chance of being a Hurricane when making landfall on the coast of Florida. Nothing is showing this falling completely apart, so that is just a bad move by him/her.



The meteorologist on TWC said something similar, too, although not as drastic. I don't know the guy's name on TWC, but he did say this thing is going to have a tough time surviving the shear as it moves north of HIspanola. But he he also said while he's not sure it will make it through the shear, more models are reviving it and you can't ignore that.


Shouldn't this be in the discussion thread and not in the models thread.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1039 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:15 pm

18z HWRF coming in significantly stronger. At 57 hours down to 991mb.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1040 Postby LarryWx » Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:16 pm

Back to models:
The 18Z GEFS is a huge shift in terms of main threat areas vs the prior 3+ runs. Whereas the prior 3 runs emphasized a direct hit on the east coast of FL south of Daytona and then into the Gulf, the 18Z emphasizes the entire SE coast FL-NC for direct hits and even has 2-3 that skirt the SE coast and never make landfall similar to the 18Z GFS Legacy. The Gulf threat is much lower on this run. Maybe just maybe the trend will continue such that there isn't a direct SE hit? We can only hope although I wouldn't bet on this yet due to the tendency of SE ridging to be stronger than model projections since at least 2018.
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