ATL: ERIN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[MGC]

90%....looks like a naked swirl and attached to a front to me......MGC

[cycloneye]

Is now TD SIX.

[Hammy]

Wasn't expecting an upgrade this soon.

[Sciencerocks]

[johngaltfla]

They only upgraded that to keep me from winning this year's S2K contest. That's two not so impressive swirls upgraded so far this year.

[1900hurricane]

Reminds me of Tropical Storm Gaemi.

[dexterlabio]

Yet another proof that the Atlantic is alive.

[AnnularCane]

Beautiful little swirl.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Yet another proof that the Atlantic is alive.

yep. after people kept saying no storms in august. we have what will likely be our third of the month taking shape.

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 06, 2019082700, 03, OFCL, 0, 314N, 723W, 30, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 0, , 0, ASL, 100, 3,
AL, 06, 2019082700, 03, OFCL, 3, 315N, 722W, 30, 1010, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 0, , 0, ASL, 100, 3,
AL, 06, 2019082700, 03, OFCL, 12, 316N, 720W, 30, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 0, , 0, ASL, 60, 1,
AL, 06, 2019082700, 03, OFCL, 24, 321N, 719W, 35, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 90, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 45, 0, , 0, ASL, 10, 3,
AL, 06, 2019082700, 03, OFCL, 36, 334N, 717W, 35, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 80, 120, 0, 60, 0, 0, 0, 45, 0, , 0, ASL, 5, 7,
AL, 06, 2019082700, 03, OFCL, 48, 355N, 707W, 40, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 80, 120, 0, 60, 0, 0, 0, 50, 0, , 0, ASL, 20, 11,
AL, 06, 2019082700, 03, OFCL, 72, 413N, 651W, 40, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 80, 120, 60, 60, 0, 0, 0, 50, 0, , 0, ASL, 40, 20,
AL, 06, 2019082700, 03, OFCL, 96, 481N, 578W, 40, 0, EX, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 50, 0, , 0, ASL, 35, 21,

[al78]

Yet another proof that the Atlantic is alive.

In the same way I was alive when I was in hospital four years ago in a coma on life support and traumatic head injury after a road accident.

Wake me up when we get a decent hurricane to track, anywhere in the Northern hemisphere will do.

[dexterlabio]

Yet another proof that the Atlantic is alive.

In the same way I was alive when I was in hospital four years ago in a coma on life support and traumatic head injury after a road accident.

Wake me up when we get a decent hurricane to track, anywhere in the Northern hemisphere will do.

LOL okay point taken. But Dorian is up there if you want to look at something interesting.

[Michele B]

Beautiful little swirl.

It might not be much, but it's creating just enough disruption in the atmosphere to move Dorian NORTH, so as to MISS HISPANIOLA's high mountainous terrain and live beyond it to strengthen and maybe cause havoc in FL.

[zhukm29]

TD6 is giving yet another push to finally earn itself a name after a long time developing, with hot towers forming closer to the center. Will the NHC give TD6 its name? Or will it have to wait until the post-season to receive its judgment? We will find out tomorrow.

In my opinion, TD6 looks much better than it did yesterday, when it was first classifed. Even yesterday, ASCAT reported winds of 30kt with some 35kt barbs. I know that the 35kt winds may have been rain-contaminated yesterday, which justified the initial 30kt intensity, but given its improvements today, I really think there are at least some 34kt winds in the storm (as 34kt is needed to get a name). Recon would have been nice to settle the ambiguity since this is a borderline case, but this is understandable because there is a bigger priority in the basin.

The NHC has been conservative and has kept the intensity at 30kt since it was designated, so I wouldn't be surprised if TD6 ended up nameless. Whether August gets its 3rd named storm or not really just comes to whoever is working the desk tonight and tomorrow.

[al78]

I have heard the term "rain contaminated" when it comes to surface wind estimates. What is it about the rainfall that causes a high bias in the satellite estimate of the wind?

[Hammy]

I have heard the term "rain contaminated" when it comes to surface wind estimates. What is it about the rainfall that causes a high bias in the satellite estimate of the wind?

It has something to do with the instruments using sea foam measured by satellite to estimate the winds, and extreme rain causes more particulates in the air so can give off a higher reading.

Anyone feel free to correct if I'm understanding this wrong.

[Nancy Smar]

ERIN

AL, 06, 2019082800, , BEST, 0, 315N, 720W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 90, 0, 0, 1013, 180, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERIN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,

[zhukm29]

ERIN

AL, 06, 2019082800, , BEST, 0, 315N, 720W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 90, 0, 0, 1013, 180, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERIN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,

Just a week ago everyone was talking about how August could end up with no named storms. And now we have our third. What a turn of events just a few days makes! Never doubt climatology, even if the models say otherwise.

[Hammy]

ERIN

AL, 06, 2019082800, , BEST, 0, 315N, 720W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 90, 0, 0, 1013, 180, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERIN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,

Just a week ago everyone was talking about how August could end up with no named storms. And now we have our third. What a turn of events just a few days makes! Never doubt climatology, even if the models say otherwise.

I had increasing doubts myself to be honest especially as the models continued to show nothing, but figured they'd upgrade earlier in the day as convection started building. Models have not handled this well as they had it elongating and largely convection-free by now.

On that note it's time for an avatar change for now as I have an Erin in my comic

[Sciencerocks]