ATL: DORIAN - Models

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stormhunter7
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1221 Postby stormhunter7 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:03 pm

Now seeing more of NNW at 114hrs in GFS
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1222 Postby Kazmit » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:04 pm

Looks like it will miss Florida... SC landfall?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1223 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:05 pm

Based on those coordinates it looks like the UKie is doubling down with the dip WSW at the end of its run.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1224 Postby birddogsc » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:05 pm

Now almost due N between 114 and 120.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1225 Postby sma10 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:05 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:WTNT82 EGRR 280356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 28.08.2019

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 62.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2019 0 15.5N 62.6W 1010 25
1200UTC 28.08.2019 12 17.2N 64.6W 1009 32
0000UTC 29.08.2019 24 18.6N 65.9W 1008 36
1200UTC 29.08.2019 36 20.1N 67.2W 1005 39
0000UTC 30.08.2019 48 22.2N 68.0W 997 49
1200UTC 30.08.2019 60 23.9N 69.2W 989 55
0000UTC 31.08.2019 72 25.3N 70.5W 978 66
1200UTC 31.08.2019 84 26.3N 72.4W 978 67
0000UTC 01.09.2019 96 26.7N 74.0W 975 70
1200UTC 01.09.2019 108 27.0N 75.3W 970 69
0000UTC 02.09.2019 120 27.2N 76.4W 963 80
1200UTC 02.09.2019 132 27.2N 77.3W 965 74
0000UTC 03.09.2019 144 26.9N 77.6W 964 67


Yeesh. The old stall routine - everyones favorite
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1226 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:05 pm

Amazing what 24 hours can do in the model watching world... :D
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1227 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:05 pm

There’s an escape route but it’s barely open.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1228 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:05 pm

GFS is finding the magical trap door, while the UKMET is dipping subtly toward the WSW at the end of its run.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1229 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:06 pm

sma10 wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:WTNT82 EGRR 280356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 28.08.2019

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 62.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2019 0 15.5N 62.6W 1010 25
1200UTC 28.08.2019 12 17.2N 64.6W 1009 32
0000UTC 29.08.2019 24 18.6N 65.9W 1008 36
1200UTC 29.08.2019 36 20.1N 67.2W 1005 39
0000UTC 30.08.2019 48 22.2N 68.0W 997 49
1200UTC 30.08.2019 60 23.9N 69.2W 989 55
0000UTC 31.08.2019 72 25.3N 70.5W 978 66
1200UTC 31.08.2019 84 26.3N 72.4W 978 67
0000UTC 01.09.2019 96 26.7N 74.0W 975 70
1200UTC 01.09.2019 108 27.0N 75.3W 970 69
0000UTC 02.09.2019 120 27.2N 76.4W 963 80
1200UTC 02.09.2019 132 27.2N 77.3W 965 74
0000UTC 03.09.2019 144 26.9N 77.6W 964 67


Yeesh. The old stall routine - everyones favorite

Anyone can plot this?
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1230 Postby stormhunter7 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:06 pm

960's at 126hrs... Almost die east of Jax. Moving towards SC/GA... Expect a recurve to show up
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1231 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:07 pm

This is going to be a nervous rest of the week, that is for sure!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1232 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:07 pm

UKMET is showing a WSW dip at the end of the run.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1233 Postby MrJames » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:08 pm

The new UK in blue...

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1234 Postby Highteeld » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:08 pm

Image
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1235 Postby Dylan » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:08 pm

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1166562878188601345


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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1236 Postby lando » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:09 pm

GFS says I like you to much Florida..... sends it north...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1237 Postby caneseddy » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:09 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:UKMET is showing a WSW dip at the end of the run.


Due east of West Palm Beach beginning the WSW dip
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1238 Postby Steve » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:09 pm

That next high is coming over the top from the Northwest. If the timing is off, this becomes a shortcut storm that kicks west at the coast. Those are often majors or majors plus. If that high is slower and Dorian is faster, it gets out. It's tough to go against the GFS within 6 days, but watch the evolution at 500mb the next couple days.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 800&fh=114
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1239 Postby stormhunter7 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:10 pm

Yep, GFS cleared of Florida at 144hrs... It found a little escape to north. Feeling will see a stall now off of Florida by weekend. What will EURO do with ridge...... In 00z
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1240 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:11 pm

Moving NE, and we're beyond the reliable range of the GFS.

Image
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