ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Despite Homestead and the keys being out of the cone, there’s still a chance of TS Force Winds.

[psyclone]

the probability for ts winds over east central florida is already rather high for this far out.

[hohnywx]

Important snippet from the 11 PM discussion:

The official intensity forecast has been increased in comparison to
the previous ones. However, it is now near the low end of the
numerical guidance suite.

[AutoPenalti]

Something I noticed that convection has started popping up on the southern flank of Dorian, something to watch. Dry air probably losing out...

[Blown Away]

This is not a dig on the NHC because they are amazing, but this was Mike's forecast 4 days out... When the NHC says things like uncertainty higher than usual you must not focus on that black line... How many folks in Mexico Beach said it's just another wimpy TS...

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://i.imgur.com/wB6fWz8.jpg
This is not a dig on the NHC because they are amazing, but this was Mike's forecast 4 days out... When the NHC says things like uncertainty higher than usual you must not focus on that black line... How many folks in Mexico Beach said it's just another wimpy TS...

Exaclty. Not saying that this will be a repeat, but to nobody's knowledge at the time, this "weak ts" became one of the strongest U.S. landfalls of all time.

[GeneratorPower]

https://i.imgur.com/wB6fWz8.jpg
This is not a dig on the NHC because they are amazing, but this was Mike's forecast 4 days out... When the NHC says things like uncertainty higher than usual you must not focus on that black line... How many folks in Mexico Beach said it's just another wimpy TS...

Literally just showed this to the wife 2 minutes before you posted it. It illustrates perfectly that these scenarios can have unpredictable outcomes. Forecast: TS. Actual: CAT 5.

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://i.imgur.com/wB6fWz8.jpg
This is not a dig on the NHC because they are amazing, but this was Mike's forecast 4 days out... When the NHC says things like uncertainty higher than usual you must not focus on that black line... How many folks in Mexico Beach said it's just another wimpy TS...

Literally just showed this to the wife 2 minutes before you posted it. It illustrates perfectly that these scenarios can have unpredictable outcomes. Forecast: TS. Actual: CAT 5.

And only 4 days out

[GeneratorPower]

https://i.imgur.com/wB6fWz8.jpg
This is not a dig on the NHC because they are amazing, but this was Mike's forecast 4 days out... When the NHC says things like uncertainty higher than usual you must not focus on that black line... How many folks in Mexico Beach said it's just another wimpy TS...

Literally just showed this to the wife 2 minutes before you posted it. It illustrates perfectly that these scenarios can have unpredictable outcomes. Forecast: TS. Actual: CAT 5.

And only 4 days out

3.5 days out.

[GeneratorPower]

Live coverage from AFTV Steve Lookner

https://youtu.be/wN9sD2JU6jQ

[tolakram]

SLIDER

Mid level WV
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=band_09&x=13300&y=6594

IR
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_13&x=1086&y=736

Shortwave
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_07&x=1086&y=736

Nighttime Microphysics
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=eumetsat_nighttime_microphysics&x=1046&y=796

[p1nheadlarry]

https://i.imgur.com/wB6fWz8.jpg
This is not a dig on the NHC because they are amazing, but this was Mike's forecast 4 days out... When the NHC says things like uncertainty higher than usual you must not focus on that black line... How many folks in Mexico Beach said it's just another wimpy TS...

Literally just showed this to the wife 2 minutes before you posted it. It illustrates perfectly that these scenarios can have unpredictable outcomes. Forecast: TS. Actual: CAT 5.

Works the other way around too (Florence), just always be ready.

[FireRat]

Was watching TWC just now, and yes it seems that the dry air may be losing the battle at the moment. New blowups of convection might just bump this guy up to 60-65 mph by the time he hits PR. One thing I was also noticing is how newly formed Erin looked so impressive on IR...what if Erin gets stronger than expected and somehow influences Dorian's track a little more?...maybe allowing him to go further north and slow down due to a weakness in the ridge before turning back west.

I think that the faster it gets to FL or the southeast (if it does that), the better. We would not want to see Dorian delay his landfall, because he could get much stronger. Just my thoughts on what ifs now that it looks like Dorian won't dissipate after PR and how Erin just formed.

[otowntiger]

https://i.imgur.com/wB6fWz8.jpg
This is not a dig on the NHC because they are amazing, but this was Mike's forecast 4 days out... When the NHC says things like uncertainty higher than usual you must not focus on that black line... How many folks in Mexico Beach said it's just another wimpy TS...

but look at how incredibly accurate they were on track!

[sponger]

The forecast track does not concern me nearly as much as the improving environment as it approaches the Florida coast. A lot of people could be surprised that a unstacked blob on Friday could emerge as a strengthening cyclone Saturday. Already prepped the generator this Sunday. It was bought for the week long power outage for Francis in 2004, used 3 weeks later for the 4 day power outage for Jeanne, powered us for Matthew and Irma and ran my dads house for 2 weeks in SFL after Wilma. The Troy Bilt Briggs and Stratton is still ready for service.

[drezee]

Surprise Surprise...Recon says Dorian is 65mph storm now

5 mm/hr
(~ 0.20 in/hr) 55.6 knots (~ 64.0 mph)
Tropical Storm

[Jr0d]

In a few hours we will get a better picture from the San Juan radar.

Not certain about this but feel in Key West. If the riffing is stronger than anticipated and the storm tracks WSW like Andrew or Katrina we could still be in trouble.

Waiting until this thing gets past PR before I have confidence in any forecast.

[txwatcher91]

Surprise Surprise...Recon says Dorian is 65mph storm now

5 mm/hr
(~ 0.20 in/hr) 55.6 knots (~ 64.0 mph)
Tropical Storm

You can also see two nice bursts of convection rotating around the center on IR, usually a sign of a vigorous circulation. Also this wind report was right in the NE “eyewall” area too instead of well away from the center. Definitely organizing.

[ozonepete]

Hey everyone. Good to see you all again.

It's getting better symmtery now. So impotant for strengthening. No wonder the winds are coming up.

[ozonepete]

Hey everyone. Good to see you all again.

It's getting better symmtery now. So important for strengthening. No wonder the winds are coming up.

https://i.imgur.com/ZwiblR9.png