ATL: DORIAN - Models

[SouthFloridawx]

To be fair yesterday GFS had Dorian slamming into DR and heading towards NOLA as a weak system.

[AutoPenalti]

Euro might show a stronger ridge, since UKMET has been showing this for a while now with the WSW dip and it has been verifying pretty well so far.

[caneseddy]

CMC also now rolling..also clips eastern side of PR

[birddogsc]

Didn't the Gulfstream fly today? Would these runs include that data?

[otowntiger]

GFS is finding the magical trap door, while the UKMET is dipping subtly toward the WSW at the end of its run.

Much more believable and typical track. The vast majority of storms in this region recurve. It’s what happens. Storms bending back west in this locale are very rare.

[stormhunter7]

Looks to take on Eastern NC near Cape Lookout in the 950's at 162hrs.

[USTropics]

00z UKMET plots:

Code: Select all

 
  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 28.08.2019  15.5N  62.6W     WEAK
 12UTC 28.08.2019  17.2N  64.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 29.08.2019  18.6N  65.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 29.08.2019  20.1N  67.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 30.08.2019  22.2N  68.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 30.08.2019  23.9N  69.2W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 31.08.2019  25.3N  70.5W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 31.08.2019  26.3N  72.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 01.09.2019  26.7N  74.0W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 01.09.2019  27.0N  75.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 02.09.2019  27.2N  76.4W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 02.09.2019  27.2N  77.3W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.09.2019  26.9N  77.6W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

[MrJames]

[Kazmit]

Skirts the OBX as a cat 3.



Well, I'm going to bed.

[p1nheadlarry]

Looks to take on Eastern NC near Cape Lookout in the 950's at 162hrs.

Looks like it will stay offshore

[NDG]

Like I said earlier this evening, this is yet another European models vs American models war setting up

[Steve]

Up on the NC Coast off Wilmington and moving NE along it through 162 hours. Might get out but rough conditions for E NC

Could be some eyewall action. Still think something's wrong, as that's way too weak on the GFS for what would be there. I'd bet the house on that.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 800&fh=162

[cjrciadt]

Peak Intensity for this run so far
GFS 960mb
GFS Legacy 941mb

[AutoPenalti]

00z UKMET plots:
https://i.ibb.co/7bgy4Gd/ukmet-8-28-19.jpg

Code: Select all

 
  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 28.08.2019  15.5N  62.6W     WEAK
 12UTC 28.08.2019  17.2N  64.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 29.08.2019  18.6N  65.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 29.08.2019  20.1N  67.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 30.08.2019  22.2N  68.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 30.08.2019  23.9N  69.2W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 31.08.2019  25.3N  70.5W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 31.08.2019  26.3N  72.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 01.09.2019  26.7N  74.0W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 01.09.2019  27.0N  75.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 02.09.2019  27.2N  76.4W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 02.09.2019  27.2N  77.3W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.09.2019  26.9N  77.6W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

Oh boy, seems like it stalls right near WPB.

[SunnyThoughts]

Legacy 938 mb due south of nc/sc border hour 150

[AtlanticWind]

That is a huge difference in global models in 144 hours between the UKmet off s. Florida
and the GFS off South carolina.

[AdamFirst]

CMC also showing strengthening once it's free and clear of the islands...I think the definite take here regardless of final destination is that this storm is bound to take off as long as it clears PR

[Steve]

GFS gives the NC coast and southern outer banks a drive-by and probably some destruction. Could be super bad for some. No way it's not stronger if GFS hit the track which I don't have an opinion on at 7 days
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2800&fh=30

[lando]

Legacy stalls Dorian off the jacksonville coast for a day or so around 132 hours, before moving Due north through and curving very similarly to the operational model. Skirting OBX

[Highteeld]

Boom.