ATL: DORIAN - Models

[lando]

0Z Euro: Landfall Jupiter 114. Actually S of 12Z Euro due to more west heading near FL.

What intensity is it?

[WeatherEmperor]

Here it is




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[sponger]

Euro not buying the GFS solution.

[Hammy]

96 hr Euro/GFS comparison

https://i.imgur.com/LzPoguM.gif

GFS always seems to have the weaker ridging. Interestingly the Euro's 96H position has been remarkably consistent for essentially reaching it from three different directions over the last three days' runs.

[STRiZZY]

120

[SouthFloridawx]

Euro

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[sponger]

0Z Euro: Landfall Jupiter 114. Actually S of 12Z Euro due to more west heading near FL.

What intensity is it?

984 MB Cat 1

[AtlanticWind]

GFS trendsnorth
EURO trends South

All bets off

[TheStormExpert]

0Z Euro: Landfall Jupiter 114. Actually S of 12Z Euro due to more west heading near FL.

What intensity is it?

984 MB Cat 1

It's likely a little stronger since it is well inland @ 120hrs.

[HDGator]

0Z Euro: Landfall Jupiter 114. Actually S of 12Z Euro due to more west heading near FL.

Euro maintaining the ridge strengthening to push Dorian inland mid-state by 120 hours vs. the recurve of the GFS on the North Florida / Georgia coast.

[Blown Away]

It’s close to Vero, not Jupiter, I don’t use the reference loosely, but this run is very similar to Andrew’s run towards FL. The big left turn and acceleration.

[caneseddy]

So to recap tonight:

ICON: hurricane into PBC/Broward line
CMC: hurricane into Martin County
Euro: hurricane into Jupiter (northern PBC)
HWRF: hurricane into Space Coast
UKMET: stalling off of PBC heading WSW
GFS ensembles: majority show South Florida
GFS: OTS
GFS Legacy: scraping NC

Looks like most models shifted south as they are depicting a stronger HP..will this be a trend? We shall see

[TheStormExpert]

GFS trendsnorth
EURO trends South

All bets off

GEFS Ensembles more in line with the Euro now.

[Bocadude85]

So GFS, HWRF and HMON are into N.Florida, while ICON,CMC,UKMET and Euro are Martin County or south, a lot of notable Florida hurricanes took that w to wsw turn in the Bahamas.

[Steejo91]

Welp, the classic EURO vs GFS is setting up as usual. Even a new upgrade (FV3) couldn't even really fix. Still nearly 5 days out and we all know how things change.

Will be making the call from an intercept perspective late Thursday night to see what Dorian looks like after PR... Another LLC relocation could change things again.

[SouthFloridawx]

Euro, CMC, ICON

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[Stormi]

& latest recon shows an open eye

[caneseddy]

It’s close to Vero, not Jupiter, I don’t use the reference loosely, but this run is very similar to Andrew’s run towards FL. The big left turn and acceleration.

Yep..ICON, CMC, and Euro show the left turn ala the “A” storm which incidentally was supposed to landfall around Jupiter/Martin County (if I’m not mistaken) and the WSW dip into South Florida

[TheProfessor]

0z Euro is right around 970 mbs just before landfall, may be a bit lower between the frames.

[Highteeld]

2nd landfall in the GOM per euro