ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Aric Dunn]

GFS is SW of 00z at Hour 84.

GFS giving in to Euro, it seems. Not good for FL

I wouldn’t say this at all

Yeah because 0z yesterday they were both in line. The gfs has been moving around while the euro has been pretty much steady..

A better statement is. GfS is moving back to where it was and in better agreement with its own ensembles. Lol

[lando]

Gfs parked Dorian 50 miles or less off for a while...

[SFLcane]

Legacy has shifted SW even more so than new GFS. Now it looks like new GFS is going to hit the brakes and slow Dorian to a crawl over the Gulf Stream.

GFS legacy almost heading wsw there as it nears sfl

[caneman]

Without the benefit of visual and not knowing if the Gfs is slowing, moving more West would seem to bring it onshore up to 24 hours earlier than the 5 am forecast. Something to look for

[lando]

Gfs says no thanks Florida, north I go

[Kat5]

Legacy has shifted SW even more so than new GFS. Now it looks like new GFS is going to hit the brakes and slow Dorian to a crawl over the Gulf Stream.

GFS legacy almost heading wsw there as it nears sfl

A More profound ridge this run, NAM indicated it earlier.

[lando]

Huge change in the legacy. Landfalls south of cape canaveral. 00z had it stay off Florida and curve north east. GFS operational similar to 00z

[tgenius]

The new 06z euro kicks off around 730ish no?

[Aric Dunn]

Gfs is an outlier having too strong a upper low at the beginning.

The upper low is weak and not nearly as expansive as the gfs shows.

Forr example compare the upper size and strength of gfs legacy vs gfs.

Going disregard the gfs operational for now.

[SouthFLTropics]

Good grief that 06z Icon track is scary familiar. I’ve seen that same track somewhere before a few decades ago.

[ronjon]

Huge change in the legacy. Landfalls south of cape canaveral. 00z had it stay off Florida and curve north east. GFS operational similar to 00z

Yes but even the 06z GFS shifted west from its OTS solution at 00z. Landfall now SC coast.

[SFLcane]

Hmmm just took a look at 06z models including the tcvn well looking kinda fishy there for sure. Those models were even north of the Bahamas.

[N2FSU]

6z GFS big shift south from 0z:

[ronjon]

Gfs is an outlier having too strong a upper low at the beginning.

The upper low is weak and not nearly as expansive as the gfs shows.

Forr example compare the upper size and strength of gfs legacy vs gfs.

Going disregard the gfs operational for now.

Kudos Aric you stayed consistent and called it last night before the 00z model suite. More models now aligning with Euro/CMC/ICON track and strength of the 500 mb ridging. Unfortunately, this is very bad news here in Florida as we now look likely to be facing a major hurricane impacting the state this labor day weekend.

[supercane4867]

The operational GFS has a tendency to underestimate the ridge. I’d prefer the EC solution right now.

[MrJames]

06z legacy GFS makes landfall around Cape Canaveral then rides I-95 up the coast.

[USTropics]

Here is a breakdown of all the ECMWF ensemble members, including master/control. This is just for first landfall, not including second landfalls in the GOM/EC (total Florida landfalls is 43/52 members):

Northeast FL - 7 members (mean SLP 1005mb)


Central FL - 21 members (mean SLP 994mb)


South FL - 15 members (mean SLP 980mb)


1 member fails to develop, 1 member's first landfall is Mexico, 2 members scrape the Carolina coastline, and 5 members recurve without landfall.

Code: Select all

Member   Location   Specific   Intensity   Day   Time
CT   FL   C   1002   Sunday   7:00AM
2   FL   C   996   Sunday   4:00PM
5   FL   C   996   Sunday   4:00AM
9   FL   C   997   Sunday   4:00AM
10   FL   C   977   Monday   7:00AM
11   FL   C   1001   Sunday   4:00AM
13   FL   C   995   Sunday   4:00PM
15   FL   C   997   Sunday   1:00PM
17   FL   C   960   Tuesday   1:00PM
21   FL   C   992   Monday   1:00AM
22   FL   C   1001   Sunday   4:00AM
26   FL   C   1004   Sunday   7:00AM
27   FL   C   1001   Sunday   1:00AM
30   FL   C   1010   Saturday   7:00PM
31   FL   C   988   Tuesday   1:00AM
33   FL   C   1004   Sunday   1:00PM
36   FL   C   974   Monday   7:00PM
38   FL   C   1007   Sunday   4:00AM
41   FL   C   1000   Sunday   4:00PM
45   FL   C   1006   Saturday   10:00PM
50   FL   C   997   Sunday   4:00PM
18   SC   Coast   979   Thursday   1:00PM
32   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
3   FL   NE   1008   Sunday   4:00AM
7   FL   NE   1008   Sunday   10:00AM
23   FL   NE   999   Monday   4:00PM
24   FL   NE   1011   Sunday   1:00PM
28   FL   NE   1000   Sunday   7:00AM
43   FL   NE   999   Sunday   4:00PM
48   FL   NE   1010   Sunday   1:00PM
20   NC   OBX   969   Thursday   7:00AM
25   Recurve   Recurve   950   Wednesday   7:00AM
29   Recurve   Recurve   973   Thursday   7:00PM
37   Recurve   Recurve   984   Wednesday   7:00PM
44   Recurve   Recurve   939   Wednesday   1:00PM
47   Recurve   Recurve   959   Wednesday   1:00AM
MA   FL   SE   973   Sunday   10:00AM
1   FL   SE   987   Monday   7:00PM
6   FL   SE   992   Sunday   1:00PM
8   FL   SE   979   Sunday   10:00AM
12   FL   SE   972   Tuesday   1:00AM
14   FL   SE   973   Sunday   4:00PM
16   FL   SE   970   Sunday   7:00PM
19   FL   SE   987   Sunday   1:00PM
34   FL   SE   1002   Sunday   4:00AM
35   FL   SE   977   Monday   7:00PM
39   FL   SE   963   Monday   4:00PM
40   FL   SE   973   Sunday   7:00PM
42   FL   SE   982   Wednesday   7:00AM
46   FL   SE   985   Sunday   10:00AM
49   FL   SE   985   Sunday   10:00PM
4   MX   Coast   986   Thursday   1:00PM


[ronjon]

For what its worth, 06z NAM shows stronger 500 mb ridging and a system moving west toward Andros island. Before others mention it, I don't use NAM for cyclone track but overall synoptics.

[gatorcane]

Wow those are some really strong Euro members into South Florida.

GFS legacy turns Dorian a little WSW in the Bahamas and at the last second pull him just north of South Florida. Not sure I buy that.

[HurricaneEric]

One thing that concerns me as a SFL resident is that everything other than the GFS has been trending south. 15 of the EPS members take this through Southern FL and the ICON (which correctly snuffed out Dorian being east of PR back on its 6z model on 8/25) has been consistently taking this west into SFL.

Also, I’m not sure I’m buying the GFS with Dorian. In its 6z model on 8/25 while ICON has verified (deepening storm passing east of PR) GFS had Dorian being shredded by Hispaniola. Again, not sure why anyone is confident in the GFS at this time when its been performing poorly with Dorian.