ATL: DORIAN - Models

[NDG]

Not sure if this was mentioned already about last night's 0z GFS run being one heck of an outlier, most of its ensembles members were more in line with the Euro and UKMET.

[invest man]

Wow those are some really strong Euro members into South Florida.

GFS legacy turns Dorian a little WSW in the Bahamas and at the last second pull him just north of South Florida. Not sure I buy that.

Wondering why all the models are hooking it even the euro that takes it into s fl. Is there an approaching front coming in to erode the Bermuda high thus if so it would be a matter of timing. I remember Floyd in 99 where Florida evacuated and at the last minute hooked back up the coast land falling in NC. Wondering if some models are picking up things turning it from a western influence rather than a strong Bermuda high. Just a theory because I heard something about a cold front coming toward the east coast.

[BobHarlem]

Legacy GFS baffles me, how does it go from Florida at 12z, to out to sea at 18z, to E. NC at 0z, then back even south of the 12z run in Florida that quickly? Is the GFS just that suspect?

[ronjon]

Wow those are some really strong Euro members into South Florida.

GFS legacy turns Dorian a little WSW in the Bahamas and at the last second pull him just north of South Florida. Not sure I buy that.

Wondering why all the models are hooking it even the euro that takes it into s fl. Is there an approaching front coming in to erode the Bermuda high thus if so it would be a matter of timing. I remember Floyd in 99 where Florida evacuated and at the last minute hooked back up the coast land falling in NC. Wondering if some models are picking up things turning it from a western influence rather than a strong Bermuda high. Just a theory because I heard something about a cold front coming toward the east coast.

Its a weak 500 mb trough coming into the midwest early next week. It erodes the western edge of the ridging in the SW Atlantic.

[NDG]

Most of latest 06z GFS ensembles continue to point towards central and south FL.

[tolakram]

Today's trend is a little to the right. The Euro turns it sooner, into the panhandle, and the GFS backs off a full recurve and looks to hit NC. I think we're all fools (I'll just speak for myself here) for expecting any kind of solid consensus in this area, it's rare. Without much science behind it I expect one of those curving storms to scrap the coast and cause all kinds of issues. It may make landfall or it may barely escape. Or, of course, it may end up west of Florida (mostly joking ... mostly).

Don't even look at the GFS Legacy .. I'm going to miss that old model if they ever stop running it.

[hurricaneCW]

Dorian will pinwheel around the ULL to its west and subsequently shift further to the left as a high builds to his north.

Florida will likely be in the crossroads though if Dorian ends up further north initially then he could LF as far north as GA/SC.

[HurricaneEric]

Here is what I was referring to in my previous post. These were from the 06z model runs on Sunday 8/25. While ICON had correctly predicted TS Dorian to pass east of Puerto Rico, GFS had Dorian REMNANTS being pushed into the Hispaniola graveyard.

I’m not at all confident in the GFS verifying at all in respect to Dorian in days 2-3, much less days 4-5.




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[Evil Jeremy]

Wow those are some really strong Euro members into South Florida.

GFS legacy turns Dorian a little WSW in the Bahamas and at the last second pull him just north of South Florida. Not sure I buy that.

I'm just surprised to see the GFS (legacy) treat the ridge with the level of respect it's getting from ICON.

[USTropics]

06z GFS ensembles:

[toad strangler]

06z GFS ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/bHlxWh6.png

Not one OTS on those ensembles. Not one.

[AdamFirst]

06z HMON shifts further south by a smidgen, looks to be an impact into Brevard County south of Cape Canaveral. 00z was north of the cape.

06z HWRF also further south. Also looks to be targeting on Brevard County, just around the Cape. 00z HWRF was approaching St. Augustine.

[USTropics]

It's important to remember the GFS ensembles are run off the GFS legacy core and framework (will be upgraded in December to FV3 dynamics), hence why the GFS legacy is more of a mean to these ensembles then the GFS operational.

[Evil Jeremy]

And more into the Gulf...

[tolakram]

How about we ban ALL talk of what local mets are saying in the model thread please, unless they are discussing a model and it's relevant to the conversation. We have the discussion thread if you must.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

06z HWRF intensifies to a Category 4 by 99 hours.

[NDG]

06z GFS ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/bHlxWh6.png

Not even one member agrees with its latest operational 06z run.

[USTropics]

43/52 of the 00z ECMWF ensemble members and 18/21 06z GFS members (2 members go through the Straits of FL for GOM landfalls, 1 does not develop) have an east coast Florida landfall. That's 61/73 members (including master/control) or ~84% likely outcome.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

06z GFS ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/bHlxWh6.png

Not even one member agrees with its latest operational 06z run.

Never a positive sign for the operational run. Wouldn't be surprised if the 12z operational shifts further south again.

[USTropics]

43/52 of the 00z ECMWF ensemble members and 18/21 06z GFS members (2 members go through the Straits of FL for GOM landfalls, 1 does not develop) have an east coast Florida landfall. That's 61/73 members (including master/control) or ~84% likely outcome.

6/52 members of the 00z ECMWF recurve or do not develop, 1/21 of the 06z GFS members does not develop. That's 7/73 members, or ~10%.