ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SeaBrz_FL]

Going to be watching this closely down here in Key West. My parents are in Cocoa Beach and I asked if they have an evacuation plan this morning.

Not giving my self the all clear down here yet because In have seen many storms take the WSW dive if they ridging sets up that way.

Sadly on the Cocoa Beach community forum many people are acting unconcerned because of last night's shift to the north and yesterdays prediction of a tropical storm.

Link to that Cocoa Beach forum please? I just returned from the N Cocoa Beach Publix and everyone is talking only about Dorian. Mostly, fascinated/anxious at the possibility of getting Brevard's first Major. At 72 miles, Brevard has the longest FL county coastline yet never had a direct hit from a major. Dorian may be put that NASA folklore finally to rest. I do know that some locals are referencing Floyd in 1999. It was predicted to hit Brevard directly, then turned north just offshore. Based on my 63 years on FL's east coast, I think most Floridians take these storms very seriously. .02

[jdjaguar]

:uarrow: Pressure is slowly falling with the inner core.

I just picked up GAP insurance.
Preliminary prep underway.

[Nancy Smar]

Could be a major hurricane.

AL, 05, 2019082812, 03, OFCL, 0, 171N, 641W, 55, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 30, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082812, 03, OFCL, 0, 171N, 641W, 55, 0, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082812, 03, OFCL, 12, 187N, 657W, 65, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 50, 30, 0, 30, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082812, 03, OFCL, 12, 187N, 657W, 65, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 10, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082812, 03, OFCL, 24, 205N, 670W, 65, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 60, 40, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082812, 03, OFCL, 24, 205N, 670W, 65, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082812, 03, OFCL, 36, 224N, 684W, 70, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 50, 20, 50, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082812, 03, OFCL, 36, 224N, 684W, 70, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082812, 03, OFCL, 48, 242N, 699W, 75, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 50, 30, 50, 0, 0, 0, 90, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082812, 03, OFCL, 48, 242N, 699W, 75, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 90, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082812, 03, OFCL, 48, 242N, 699W, 75, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 90, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082812, 03, OFCL, 72, 265N, 740W, 90, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 70, 40, 60, 0, 0, 0, 110, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082812, 03, OFCL, 72, 265N, 740W, 90, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 110, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082812, 03, OFCL, 72, 265N, 740W, 90, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 110, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082812, 03, OFCL, 96, 277N, 777W, 100, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 120, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082812, 03, OFCL, 120, 286N, 803W, 85, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 105, 0,

[StormLogic]

Dropsonde got 1002mb with 18kt surface wind.

[BensonTCwatcher]

It's really too bad Weather Underground is nothing more than a pile of non working features now, makes getting radar images a lot harder.

https://i.imgur.com/R2TpoD3.gif

Yeah it used to be great. I just got Radarscope too. I see you have the Pro. Wish the underlying maps were better but as far as Radar it great.

[tolakram]

Starting to look like an intensifying storm, and convection seems to be blocking significant dry air intrusion, for now.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1048.9152221679688&y=872.9491577148438

[plasticup]

Dropsonde got 1002mb with 18kt surface wind.

Recon looks way better than satellite.

[Jr0d]

Link to that Cocoa Beach forum please? I just returned from the N Cocoa Beach Publix and everyone is talking only about Dorian. Mostly, fascinated/anxious at the possibility of getting Brevard's first Major. At 72 miles, Brevard has the longest FL county coastline yet never had a direct hit from a major. Dorian may be put that NASA folklore finally to rest. I do know that some locals are referencing Floyd in 1999. It was predicted to hit Brevard directly, then turned north just offshore. Based on my 63 years on FL's east coast, I think most Floridians take these storms very seriously. .02

It's Wake Up Cocoa Beach on facebook: https://m.facebook.com/groups/353345641 ... on_generic

It looks like most are starting to come around now and are getting things done.

Brevard has never had a major strike. We probably had upper cat 1 conditions in 2004 with Jeanne and Francis(I rode it out ) so I do think there is a complacency problem with some.

Like I've said before, my gut has a bad feeling about this one.

Needless to say, I will not be getting much sleep the rest of the week. My parents have an evacuation in place. My brother is in Suntree, his girlfriend's brother is a pro met so they always have good info when it comes to storm. He also has solar....hopefully the panel array doesn't get damaged. I know deep down he wants to be the only one with power in the neighborhood.

[sponger]

Really? May not even clip PR? Bad news. I am not buying the recurve scenario as the high looks like it will fill in strong. I am thinking Jeanne esq hit on South Central Florida. Unless the shear weakens early ahead of it than SFL is in trouble.

Well you can't buy it, because no one is even selling that scenario anymore. The sounding data from the ridge yesterday put the final nail in that coffin: ridge is here to stay.

Even heard a few TV mets giving the all clear on one GFS run. Pathetic unprofessionalism in my opinion.

[Jr0d]

I believe there was a near major to hit Brevard in the 1880. Dr. Harms(sp?) the met 101 professor at BCC for decades talked about it in his class, if I recall correctly there was a report of someone taking a canoe from the Indian River all the way to the St. John's as a result of the flooding. Also many Merritt Island citrus farmers left and never came back because they were so scared after surviving storm.

[jlauderdal]

Going to be watching this closely down here in Key West. My parents are in Cocoa Beach and I asked if they have an evacuation plan this morning.

Not giving my self the all clear down here yet because In have seen many storms take the WSW dive if they ridging sets up that way.

Sadly on the Cocoa Beach community forum many people are acting unconcerned because of last night's shift to the north and yesterdays prediction of a tropical storm.

Link to that Cocoa Beach forum please? I just returned from the N Cocoa Beach Publix and everyone is talking only about Dorian. Mostly, fascinated/anxious at the possibility of getting Brevard's first Major. At 72 miles, Brevard has the longest FL county coastline yet never had a direct hit from a major. Dorian may be put that NASA folklore finally to rest. I do know that some locals are referencing Floyd in 1999. It was predicted to hit Brevard directly, then turned north just offshore. Based on my 63 years on FL's east coast, I think most Floridians take these storms very seriously. .02

picked up 10 gallons this morning at the wal mart on federal in pompano, they were almost out..next stop, 50 gallons of gas for the genny, hopefully, don't need either but its august 28th, the season is just getting started for south florida

[Highteeld]

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 05, 2019082812, 03, OFCL, 3, 175N, 645W, 60, 1000, TS

[jlauderdal]

Really? May not even clip PR? Bad news. I am not buying the recurve scenario as the high looks like it will fill in strong. I am thinking Jeanne esq hit on South Central Florida. Unless the shear weakens early ahead of it than SFL is in trouble.

Well you can't buy it, because no one is even selling that scenario anymore. The sounding data from the ridge yesterday put the final nail in that coffin: ridge is here to stay.

Even heard a few TV mets giving the all clear on one GFS run. Pathetic unprofessionalism in my opinion.

folks, call them out and let us know what they said, no fake news please just be as precise as you can...we need to lknow who in the media is giving bad info..a sperate thread would be great "what the media is saying" not to bash though but the truth isnt bashing, if they are saying crapola lets hear it

[Jr0d]

Just saw someone claim they were with Team Rubicon in Cocoa Beach on Mike weather's page live feed, said it will just be a rainmaker and not much more.

That said, I know most are taking this seriously and getting prepared.

[msbee]

Virgin Islands preparing for Dorian
https://stthomassource.com/content/2019 ... ges-begin/

[tolakram]

folks, call them out and let us know what they said, no fake news please just be as precise as you can...we need to lknow who in the media is giving bad info..a sperate thread would be great "what the media is saying" not to bash though but the truth isnt bashing, if they are saying crapola lets hear it

In one post the media is called an alarmist, in the next unprofessional. I don't particularly like discussion of the media here because the response is very subjective. A pro met might say SOuth Florida might be in the clear and one person might think that's a horrible thing to say, hearing only 'in the clear' while another thinks the message is fine.

Feel free to link to local media information and broadcasts as it pertains to Dorian.

[EquusStorm]

Ironically, I was already planning on heading to the AL coast this weekend or Monday. A few of the ensemble tracks intrigue me.

[tolakram]

Just saw someone claim they were with Team Rubicon in Cocoa Beach on Mike weather's page live feed, said it will just be a rainmaker and not much more.

That said, I know most are taking this seriously and getting prepared.

And this is a fine example, sorry Jr0d but someone claiming someone said is not good enough. Please make sure you have verifiable information before posting. We do have a Discord chatroom where the rules are a lot more forgiving (link in my signature).

[chris_fit]

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 65 kts (74.8 mph)