ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[p1nheadlarry]

Also looks like it might be the highest pressure hurricane soon.

Environmental pressure pretty high, same for Matthew (Cat 5 at like 940 or something)

[Aric Dunn]

Also there are a bunch of single celled meso vorts in the eyewall. A sign of possible rapid deepening is about to occur.. hold on too your hats...

[beachman80]

Question: I noticed some models developing a low in the eastern or central GOM this weekend and into early next week. Could that block Dorian from moving westward while the high blocks it from moving north?

[Jr0d]

Also looks like it might be the highest pressure hurricane soon.

Yep.

Are you back in Florida Aric?

[Aric Dunn]

Also looks like it might be the highest pressure hurricane soon.

Yep.

Are you back in Florida Aric?

Yep !

[gfsperpendicular]

I think RI might be coming soon. No land or mountains to disrupt it, a huge shield of outflow, the ULL exiting, eye already visible with some sort of CDO getting established around it. Perhaps recon (in 8 hours, if I read correctly) will find an upper-end cat 1.

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[supercane4867]

Also looks like it might be the highest pressure hurricane soon.

Debby 2000 was classified as a hurricane at 1005mb

[GCANE]

Recon reports a closed eye.
14 nm diameter
5C warm core at 850mb

[StPeteMike]

Recon reports a closed eye.
14 nm diameter
5C warm core at 850mb

Well, here it starts people!

[BYG Jacob]

Recon reports a closed eye.
14 nm diameter
5C warm core at 850mb

Andherewe...go.jpg

[HurricaneEnzo]

Also looks like it might be the highest pressure hurricane soon.

Danny in 03 was a 1000mb hurricane

[Highteeld]

eye-feature on VIS

[Hypercane_Kyle]

High MSLP environment skews the pressure-wind ratio.

If this were in the Bahamas pressures would be lower.

[Highteeld]

Dorian might be a hurricane right now

[HurricaneEnzo]

High MSLP environment skews the pressure-wind ratio.

If this were in the Bahamas pressures would be lower.

Exactly some people in here just looking at the higher than normal pressures in the storm and assuming Dorian isn't that strong. You have to look at the environment its embedded in. If it's in an environment where the ambient pressure is higher than normal the storm doesn't need as low a pressure to reach a certain strength.

[Highteeld]

High MSLP environment skews the pressure-wind ratio.

If this were in the Bahamas pressures would be lower.

Exactly some people in here just looking at the higher than normal pressures in the storm and assuming Dorian isn't that strong. You have to look at the environment its embedded in. If it's in an environment where the ambient pressure is higher than normal the storm doesn't need as low a pressure to reach a certain strength.

dat dere cyclostrophic wind

[Hurricane Jed]

Seems like all the chips are falling in the right place for this storm.

[decgirl66]

I see we have a lot of "guests" browsing this board. If you are not already a member of Storm2K, now is a great time to join! This is the only place I have gone to since Charley in 2004 for storm information!

[1900hurricane]

High MSLP environment skews the pressure-wind ratio.

If this were in the Bahamas pressures would be lower.

Exactly some people in here just looking at the higher than normal pressures in the storm and assuming Dorian isn't that strong. You have to look at the environment its embedded in. If it's in an environment where the ambient pressure is higher than normal the storm doesn't need as low a pressure to reach a certain strength.

To be fair though, it's outperforming its KZC expected winds right now too, which accounts for environmental pressure.

System: 05L DORIAN
Date & Time Lat/Lon Vmax(kt) Speed Mean Analyzed OCI
exp(act) (kt) R34 Pressure
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8/28/2019 12Z: 17.1N 64.1W 46 ( 55), 9, 30, 1002, 1012

System: 05L DORIAN
Date & Time Lat/Lon Vmax(kt) Speed Mean Analyzed OCI
exp(act) (kt) ROCI Pressure
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8/28/2019 12Z: 17.1N 64.1W 46 ( 55), 9, 120, 1002, 1012

[tarheelprogrammer]

No doubt that there is an eye showing up on visible right now. Any METS know what happens if this deepens quicker than expected? Will it go more north or south when approaching the US?