ATL: DORIAN - Models

[KWT]

Upper ridge has Ben trending stronger on the last 3 runs of the GFS. We will see where it leads us on the 12z...

[Nimbus]

Trend
https://i.imgur.com/zOmk5mq.gif

Erin looks like she is finally decoupling from her mid level circulation and moving out.
The ULL north of Hispaniola is starting to roll WSW and the Ridge is trending stronger on each GFS run.
Should have more of a model consensus next few runs.

[Steve]

Yeah, Icon at 180 hours (valid for next Wednesday night at 7pm)shows a WNW moving storm headed toward the mouth of the river. If it hooks, look for a landfall somewhere between Boothville and Pensacola. The "F" storm behind Dorian could either erode the Atlantic ridge or pump it farther to its west. At 500mb, it looks like the Atlantic ridging is building back westward at the end of the run which would tend to keep Dorian with a westerly heading which is not good for here obviously.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=180

[Javlin]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2019082812&fh=177

over a week away man o man still lots of watching

Well lets hope the ICON is wrong.

[tolakram]

No curve yet.

[ObsessedMiami]

To be honest, this is the first time I have ever taken notice of the ICON model

[BigB0882]

Can anyone post the last image of the ICON?

[jfk08c]

Timing of the ridge will be everything on this one. If it lifts out too quick, it'll rake the coast. If the system can speed up, it will most likely beat out the ridge and pass over Florida. Just a waiting game

[tolakram]

Ridge backs off at the last second, moving NW.

[Incident_MET]

The first of what should be many G4 missions to sample the high altitude environment starts this afternoon. Should go into 00z guidance tonight. Also, Many upper air sites will be doing intermediate sonde releases if they aren’t already. Looking forward to 00z guidance this evening with UA data.

[USTropics]

Past 3 runs of the GFS correcting westward each run:

[tolakram]

Landfall

[beachman80]

GFS continues the southward trend of models thus far today. Landfall in north-central Fl. So eyes seem back on Florida again.

[tolakram]

[USTropics]

The first of what should many G4 missions to sample the high altitude environment starts this afternoon. Should go into 00z guidance tonight. Also, Many upper air sites will be doing intermediate sonde releases if they aren’t already. Looking forward to 00z guidance this evening with UA data.

I know all NWS locations in Florida are doing 6z and 18z launches starting this evening.

[Dean4Storms]

That GFS run looks like landfall near Daytona.

[Highteeld]

[supercane4867]

That last minute NW then W turn on 12z GFS just doesn't make sense to me. If you extrapolate from the steering pattern it would most likely going into Port St. Lucie to WPB

[beachman80]

GFS legacy does a total 180. Now has landfall in Melbourne. Yesterday it was missing the US altogether.

[artist]

Can anyone post the last image of the ICON?

https://imgur.com/zNAszL4