ATL: DORIAN - Models

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1561 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:09 am

Here's the ICON. Not a very accurate model long term IMO.

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1562 Postby chris_fit » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:10 am

Is the 12z UKMET out yet?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1563 Postby Highteeld » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:10 am

tolakram wrote:Here's the ICON. Not a very accurate model long term IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/2py54ER.gif

Initiated too weak. The short term forecast is probably off as well.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1564 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:11 am

Dean4Storms wrote:That GFS run looks like landfall near Daytona.


Yep...I hope NASCAR is paying attention to this since they decided to push the Coke Zero Sugar 400 date to August 29th next year. Bonehead move to schedule a race on the East Coast of Florida during the peak of hurricane season. That's a logistical nightmare.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1565 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:11 am

chris_fit wrote:Is the 12z UKMET out yet?


LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2019 24 20.7N 67.5W 1007 38
0000UTC 30.08.2019 36 22.7N 68.5W 1000 45
1200UTC 30.08.2019 48 24.3N 70.1W 992 52
0000UTC 31.08.2019 60 25.6N 71.9W 984 63
1200UTC 31.08.2019 72 26.3N 73.9W 980 68
0000UTC 01.09.2019 84 26.6N 75.7W 975 69
1200UTC 01.09.2019 96 27.0N 77.1W 973 72
0000UTC 02.09.2019 108 27.0N 78.1W 968 71
1200UTC 02.09.2019 120 26.9N 78.8W 958 78
0000UTC 03.09.2019 132 26.6N 79.5W 957 85
1200UTC 03.09.2019 144 26.9N 80.2W 954 74
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1566 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:11 am

Isn't ICON a UKMET-based model, like the Australian ACCESS model?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1567 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:12 am

GFS slows it down, so again a flooding nightmare after the initial hit.

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1568 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:12 am

The ICON has performed well so far, I wouldn't discount it in the short-term.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1569 Postby JPmia » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:13 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
chris_fit wrote:Is the 12z UKMET out yet?


LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2019 24 20.7N 67.5W 1007 38
0000UTC 30.08.2019 36 22.7N 68.5W 1000 45
1200UTC 30.08.2019 48 24.3N 70.1W 992 52
0000UTC 31.08.2019 60 25.6N 71.9W 984 63
1200UTC 31.08.2019 72 26.3N 73.9W 980 68
0000UTC 01.09.2019 84 26.6N 75.7W 975 69
1200UTC 01.09.2019 96 27.0N 77.1W 973 72
0000UTC 02.09.2019 108 27.0N 78.1W 968 71
1200UTC 02.09.2019 120 26.9N 78.8W 958 78
0000UTC 03.09.2019 132 26.6N 79.5W 957 85
1200UTC 03.09.2019 144 26.9N 80.2W 954 74


Ugh.. that's Miami/Fort Lauderdale/WPB
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1570 Postby chris_fit » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:13 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
chris_fit wrote:Is the 12z UKMET out yet?


LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2019 24 20.7N 67.5W 1007 38
0000UTC 30.08.2019 36 22.7N 68.5W 1000 45
1200UTC 30.08.2019 48 24.3N 70.1W 992 52
0000UTC 31.08.2019 60 25.6N 71.9W 984 63
1200UTC 31.08.2019 72 26.3N 73.9W 980 68
0000UTC 01.09.2019 84 26.6N 75.7W 975 69
1200UTC 01.09.2019 96 27.0N 77.1W 973 72
0000UTC 02.09.2019 108 27.0N 78.1W 968 71
1200UTC 02.09.2019 120 26.9N 78.8W 958 78
0000UTC 03.09.2019 132 26.6N 79.5W 957 85
1200UTC 03.09.2019 144 26.9N 80.2W 954 74



Jupiter FL Landfall
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1571 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:14 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
chris_fit wrote:Is the 12z UKMET out yet?


LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2019 24 20.7N 67.5W 1007 38
0000UTC 30.08.2019 36 22.7N 68.5W 1000 45
1200UTC 30.08.2019 48 24.3N 70.1W 992 52
0000UTC 31.08.2019 60 25.6N 71.9W 984 63
1200UTC 31.08.2019 72 26.3N 73.9W 980 68
0000UTC 01.09.2019 84 26.6N 75.7W 975 69
1200UTC 01.09.2019 96 27.0N 77.1W 973 72
0000UTC 02.09.2019 108 27.0N 78.1W 968 71
1200UTC 02.09.2019 120 26.9N 78.8W 958 78
0000UTC 03.09.2019 132 26.6N 79.5W 957 85
1200UTC 03.09.2019 144 26.9N 80.2W 954 74
Hmmm, could step outside into the eye on that track..whats the 5 day error rate?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1572 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:14 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
chris_fit wrote:Is the 12z UKMET out yet?


LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2019 24 20.7N 67.5W 1007 38
0000UTC 30.08.2019 36 22.7N 68.5W 1000 45
1200UTC 30.08.2019 48 24.3N 70.1W 992 52
0000UTC 31.08.2019 60 25.6N 71.9W 984 63
1200UTC 31.08.2019 72 26.3N 73.9W 980 68
0000UTC 01.09.2019 84 26.6N 75.7W 975 69
1200UTC 01.09.2019 96 27.0N 77.1W 973 72
0000UTC 02.09.2019 108 27.0N 78.1W 968 71
1200UTC 02.09.2019 120 26.9N 78.8W 958 78
0000UTC 03.09.2019 132 26.6N 79.5W 957 85
1200UTC 03.09.2019 144 26.9N 80.2W 954 74


That puts it onshore somewhere near Jupiter. The UKMET and ICON can't be discounted at this time due to their run to run accuracy and consistency with Dorian.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1573 Postby shah83 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:14 am

One thing about the 12z GFZ is that it's thinking a bit bigger in size of the storm.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1574 Postby ronjon » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:15 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
chris_fit wrote:Is the 12z UKMET out yet?


LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2019 24 20.7N 67.5W 1007 38
0000UTC 30.08.2019 36 22.7N 68.5W 1000 45
1200UTC 30.08.2019 48 24.3N 70.1W 992 52
0000UTC 31.08.2019 60 25.6N 71.9W 984 63
1200UTC 31.08.2019 72 26.3N 73.9W 980 68
0000UTC 01.09.2019 84 26.6N 75.7W 975 69
1200UTC 01.09.2019 96 27.0N 77.1W 973 72
0000UTC 02.09.2019 108 27.0N 78.1W 968 71
1200UTC 02.09.2019 120 26.9N 78.8W 958 78
0000UTC 03.09.2019 132 26.6N 79.5W 957 85
1200UTC 03.09.2019 144 26.9N 80.2W 954 74


12z UKMET looks like WPB impact - never gets above 27 north latitude.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1575 Postby artist » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:15 am

jlauderdal wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
chris_fit wrote:Is the 12z UKMET out yet?


LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2019 24 20.7N 67.5W 1007 38
0000UTC 30.08.2019 36 22.7N 68.5W 1000 45
1200UTC 30.08.2019 48 24.3N 70.1W 992 52
0000UTC 31.08.2019 60 25.6N 71.9W 984 63
1200UTC 31.08.2019 72 26.3N 73.9W 980 68
0000UTC 01.09.2019 84 26.6N 75.7W 975 69
1200UTC 01.09.2019 96 27.0N 77.1W 973 72
0000UTC 02.09.2019 108 27.0N 78.1W 968 71
1200UTC 02.09.2019 120 26.9N 78.8W 958 78
0000UTC 03.09.2019 132 26.6N 79.5W 957 85
1200UTC 03.09.2019 144 26.9N 80.2W 954 74
Hmmm, could step outside into the eye on that track..whats the 5 day error rate?

For this storm? Very low
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1576 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:15 am

shah83 wrote:One thing about the 12z GFZ is that it's thinking a bit bigger in size of the storm.



GFS has no clue what is going on right now
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1577 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:15 am

Total precip.
Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1578 Postby hohnywx » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:16 am

1900hurricane wrote:Isn't ICON a UKMET-based model, like the Australian ACCESS model?


I don't believe so. ICON is the German model. And it is not very accurate - definitely a lower tier model.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1579 Postby Highteeld » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:17 am

stormlover2013 wrote:
shah83 wrote:One thing about the 12z GFZ is that it's thinking a bit bigger in size of the storm.



GFS has no clue what is going on right now

That's about par for the golf course XD
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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1580 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:17 am

stormlover2013 wrote:
shah83 wrote:One thing about the 12z GFZ is that it's thinking a bit bigger in size of the storm.



GFS has no clue what is going on right now


Why do you say this?
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