ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author

TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1902 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:08 am

1 likes   

KC7NEC
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 162
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:01 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1903 Postby KC7NEC » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:10 am

Im guessing that we will see Florida Division of Emergency Management, State Officials, and many local governments start to ramp up messaging today. This means for any of you in Eastern Florida the time is NOW to go get supplies, gas, water, and essentials that you don't already have before the masses go into prepare panic this evening.

Yes, an exact track is not certain yet and it's days out but it's better to be safe and ready, then unprepared and stressed out.
3 likes   
// Opinions are my own, I am not a Meteorologist. Consult the NHC or Local NWS and Emergency Management for current information in your area. //

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7359
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1904 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:10 am

It’s better to be prepared early with strong storms like Dorian, we got the necessities back in March so we’re ready but those who aren’t prepared I would make preparations ASAP
2 likes   

Airboy
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 439
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2011 10:41 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1905 Postby Airboy » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:11 am

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 15:57Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2019
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 21

A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 15:27:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17.80N 64.59W
B. Center Fix Location: 8 statute miles (13 km) to the ENE (64°) from Christiansted, U.S. Virgin Islands.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,439m (4,721ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 280° at 14kts (From the W at 16mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the west
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 44kts (50.6mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ESE (117°) of center fix at 15:21:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 188° at 58kts (From the S at 66.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ESE (122°) of center fix at 15:21:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 40kts (46.0mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the WNW (302°) of center fix at 15:33:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 44° at 51kts (From the NE at 58.7mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NW (305°) of center fix at 15:34:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,515m (4,970ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,535m (5,036ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.03 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
ObsessedMiami
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 431
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:08 pm
Location: West Kendall, Fl

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1906 Postby ObsessedMiami » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:11 am

KC7NEC wrote:Im guessing that we will see Florida Division of Emergency Management, State Officials, and many local governments start to ramp up messaging today. This means for any of you in Eastern Florida the time is NOW to go get supplies, gas, water, and essentials that you don't already have before the masses go into prepare panic this evening.

Yes, an exact track is not certain yet and it's days out but it's better to be safe and ready, then unprepared and stressed out.

Yes do it ASAP. The crowds will be out tonight.

Now where is that post from this morning that said a SFL Tv met was sounding the all clear????
0 likes   

BYG Jacob

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1907 Postby BYG Jacob » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:15 am

Airboy wrote:Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 15:57Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2019
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 21

A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 15:27:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17.80N 64.59W
B. Center Fix Location: 8 statute miles (13 km) to the ENE (64°) from Christiansted, U.S. Virgin Islands.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,439m (4,721ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 280° at 14kts (From the W at 16mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the west
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 44kts (50.6mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ESE (117°) of center fix at 15:21:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 188° at 58kts (From the S at 66.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ESE (122°) of center fix at 15:21:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 40kts (46.0mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the WNW (302°) of center fix at 15:33:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 44° at 51kts (From the NE at 58.7mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NW (305°) of center fix at 15:34:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,515m (4,970ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,535m (5,036ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.03 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Is this the latest vortex?
0 likes   

wx98
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 9:24 pm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1908 Postby wx98 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:16 am

BYG Jacob wrote:
Airboy wrote:Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 15:57Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2019
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 21

A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 15:27:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17.80N 64.59W
B. Center Fix Location: 8 statute miles (13 km) to the ENE (64°) from Christiansted, U.S. Virgin Islands.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,439m (4,721ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 280° at 14kts (From the W at 16mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the west
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 44kts (50.6mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ESE (117°) of center fix at 15:21:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 188° at 58kts (From the S at 66.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ESE (122°) of center fix at 15:21:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 40kts (46.0mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the WNW (302°) of center fix at 15:33:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 44° at 51kts (From the NE at 58.7mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NW (305°) of center fix at 15:34:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,515m (4,970ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,535m (5,036ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.03 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Is this the latest vortex?

Appears so, it’s from 1527z, around the time of the last pass
0 likes   

craptacular
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 581
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:17 pm
Location: The Mad City, WI

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1909 Postby craptacular » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:17 am

BYG Jacob wrote:A damn shame recon just left, we’re probably going to have to wait for an upgrade to hurricane.


Recon is still there. They are scheduled to be on station until 17:30z (still over an hour from now), and is currently setting up for a likely SW-NE pass. Probably have time for one more after that.
0 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1910 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:19 am

She indeed looks like a solid hurricane on visible satellite
1 likes   

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1911 Postby artist » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:19 am

ObsessedMiami wrote:
KC7NEC wrote:Im guessing that we will see Florida Division of Emergency Management, State Officials, and many local governments start to ramp up messaging today. This means for any of you in Eastern Florida the time is NOW to go get supplies, gas, water, and essentials that you don't already have before the masses go into prepare panic this evening.

Yes, an exact track is not certain yet and it's days out but it's better to be safe and ready, then unprepared and stressed out.

Yes do it ASAP. The crowds will be out tonight.

Now where is that post from this morning that said a SFL Tv met was sounding the all clear????


Places are already running out of water or limiting it here in the north Broward area on up.
0 likes   

Michele B
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1114
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:08 am
Location: SWFL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1912 Postby Michele B » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:21 am

beachman80 wrote:Question: I noticed some models developing a low in the eastern or central GOM this weekend and into early next week. Could that block Dorian from moving westward while the high blocks it from moving north?


Any low pressure systems will pull the storm TOWARD them. That's what Erin is doing now. Helping steer Dorian north - is why she missed Hispaniola and also PR.

IF anything develops in GOM, it could turn Dorian TOWARD it - that is to say - WEST. Might impact her future path for sure.
1 likes   
Cleo - 1964, Betsy - 1965, David - 1979, Andrew - 1992, Charlie (Francis, Ivan, Jeanne) - 2004, Irma - 2017, Ian - 2022

User avatar
got ants?
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 114
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2011 3:44 am
Location: Hollywood/Ft Laud

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1913 Postby got ants? » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:21 am

KC7NEC wrote:Im guessing that we will see Florida Division of Emergency Management, State Officials, and many local governments start to ramp up messaging today. This means for any of you in Eastern Florida the time is NOW to go get supplies, gas, water, and essentials that you don't already have before the masses go into prepare panic this evening.

Yes, an exact track is not certain yet and it's days out but it's better to be safe and ready, then unprepared and stressed out.


Yup, have all the necessities with exception of gas. Heading out in a few to fill 4'5 gallon jugs with rec has for the generators, which btw, have already been test fired.

Location. Hollywood FL, west side of I-95
1 likes   
This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1914 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:22 am

I am pretty sure the state emergency officials are gathering now on when to start evacuations. We should be hearing about this in very soon, given the latest developments.
1 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

BrandonJay21
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 17
Joined: Tue Jun 04, 2013 7:51 pm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1915 Postby BrandonJay21 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:25 am

Just sitting here in Orlando refreshing like crazy, and being thankful I decided to grab supplies and gas last night. (Not helpful to the conversation, but sometimes one gets tired of lurking in the forum.)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
7 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1916 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:28 am

northjaxpro wrote:I am pretty sure the state emergency officials are gathering now on when to start evacuations. We should be hearing about this in very soon, given the latest developments.


I'm surprised we haven't had the emergency declaration yet.
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1917 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:29 am

12z CMC looks to remain on the same track as it’s 00z run.
0 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneEnzo
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 739
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:18 pm
Location: Newport, NC (Hurricane Alley)

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1918 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:30 am

2 likes   
Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)

I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!

User avatar
decgirl66
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 292
Age: 58
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 1:23 pm
Location: Titusville, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1919 Postby decgirl66 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:32 am

BrandonJay21 wrote:Just sitting here in Orlando refreshing like crazy, and being thankful I decided to grab supplies and gas last night. (Not helpful to the conversation, but sometimes one gets tired of lurking in the forum.)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Ditto! Refreshing like crazy from the Space Coast, right up the road from Kennedy Space Center. Waited in line for 10 min this morning at Merritt Island BJ's for gas. Got gas for the generator and propane for the grill yesterday. We bought a portable AC for the living room on Monday night. All buckled up and ready to ride it out if need be!
3 likes   

User avatar
Hurricane Andrew
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1891
Age: 26
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
Location: KS

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1920 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:32 am

Well this all escalated really quickly...
0 likes   

The Enthusiast
NREMT-AEMT, WX nerd

Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)

"Hard to think we were born to live this way..." -Wage War


Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 33 guests