ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Javlin]

Question: I noticed some models developing a low in the eastern or central GOM this weekend and into early next week. Could that block Dorian from moving westward while the high blocks it from moving north?

Any low pressure systems will pull the storm TOWARD them. That's what Erin is doing now. Helping steer Dorian north - is why she missed Hispaniola and also PR.

IF anything develops in GOM, it could turn Dorian TOWARD it - that is to say - WEST. Might impact her future path for sure.

You see something on the maps of a 1007/09mb L in the GOM going through the Strait/Keys and some shifts.

[sma10]

Im guessing that we will see Florida Division of Emergency Management, State Officials, and many local governments start to ramp up messaging today. This means for any of you in Eastern Florida the time is NOW to go get supplies, gas, water, and essentials that you don't already have before the masses go into prepare panic this evening.

Yes, an exact track is not certain yet and it's days out but it's better to be safe and ready, then unprepared and stressed out.

Yes do it ASAP. The crowds will be out tonight.

Now where is that post from this morning that said a SFL Tv met was sounding the all clear????

Places are already running out of water or limiting it here in the north Broward area on up.

Also a good time to remind people that the stuff that comes out of the faucet is also clean water now, so fill jugs and bottles now to your hearts content. No crowds and relatively free.

[NotSparta]

I remember when there were strong +SSTAs in the region where Dorian is likely to track, luckily they have come down some

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1166751808020242433

[northjaxpro]

I am pretty sure the state emergency officials are gathering now on when to start evacuations. We should be hearing about this in very soon, given the latest developments.

I'm surprised we haven't had the emergency declaration yet.

It seems that once the NHC projected that Dorian is forecast to reach a least Cat 3 strrngth minimum on their 11a.m. package, that is when everyone (Emergency Management Officials) began to go into crisis mode.

[HurricaneBelle]

Also a good time to remind people that the stuff that comes out of the faucet is also clean water now, so fill jugs and bottles now to your hearts content. No crowds and relatively free.

even better with a Brita pitcher or other filtration system

[plasticup]

Well that's terrifying.

[TJRE]

every picture tells a story....

loop
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/i ... A-N0Q-1-48

[wxman57]

From Chris Velden at CIMSS:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/190828_goes16_visible_infrared_TS_Dorian_anim.gif

[KWT]

I am pretty sure the state emergency officials are gathering now on when to start evacuations. We should be hearing about this in very soon, given the latest developments.

I'm surprised we haven't had the emergency declaration yet.

It seems that once the NHC projected that Dorian is forecast to reach a least Cat 3 strrngth minimum on their 11a.m. package, that is when everyone (Emergency Management Officials) began to go into crisis mode.

Unforutnately I think this may also be partly as a result of the media claiming it was ONLY going to be a TS landfaller even as of yesterday. Now people are tuning into the fact this may actually be a reasonably serious system.

I do think also people are generally taking these systems more seriously again, after Matthew of 16, Irma/Maria/Harvey of 17 and Michael last year, we've had quite a run of potent landfalling hurricanes.

[plasticup]

From Chris Velden at CIMSS:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/190828_goes16_visible_infrared_TS_Dorian_anim.gif

That is so impressive. Days as TS are numbered.

[KWT]

From Chris Velden at CIMSS:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/190828_goes16_visible_infrared_TS_Dorian_anim.gif

Wow, you can literally see the eyewall ignite within an hour or so. I remember similar blows ups with Michael as it went through its explosive strengthening phase. Hope we aren't going to see something similar kick in here.

[Sanibel]

Ground readings on St Thomas should give an idea of Dorian's nature...

East miss of Puerto Rico might translate into higher US landfall intensity...

It is possible we might see history with an intense hurricane hitting Jacksonville (this is not a prediction)...

[chris_fit]

WXMAN57, our own personal Storm2k Hurricane Center Meteorologist - what are your thoughts today? Track/Intensity/Timing/Curve Balls?

[marionstorm]

Omg... I just reloaded the numerical forecast chart from this morning and we've gone from a little bit of wind forecast to way too much.

[HarryPotter]

From Chris Velden at CIMSS:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/190828_goes16_visible_infrared_TS_Dorian_anim.gif

That is so impressive. Days as TS are numbered.

Hours....

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon is just about to make another pass through the center...I'm guessing pressure is going to be down 2 or 3 MB

[ScottNAtlanta]

From Chris Velden at CIMSS:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/190828_goes16_visible_infrared_TS_Dorian_anim.gif

That is so impressive. Days as TS are numbered.

Hours....

Minutes even

[psyclone]

Three years ago right now we were just days away from Hermine ending Florida's insane 11 year streak without a hurricane...our longest on record. Fast forward to today and we are in the hunt for 4 consecutive seasons with hurricane landfalls. Nature has a way of balancing things out. I'm reminded of that famous quote..hurricanes are like bananas, they come in bunches...

[jaxfladude]

Is the NE FLA and SE GA coastline still a possible landfall? Or is Dorian likely not directly impact landfall wise? What's the rainfall amount forecast to be and how strong the winds? Hearing Dorian is expanding in strength and size right? Evacuated for Floyd in 1999 and for Irma in 2017 will Dorian be number three? Not happy at all...

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