ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneA]

Is the NE FLA and SE GA coastline still a possible landfall? Or is Dorian likely not directly impact landfall wise? What's the rainfall amount forecast to be and how strong the winds? Hearing Dorian is expanding in strength and size right? Evacuated for Floyd in 1999 and for Irma in 2017 will Dorian be number three? Not happy at all...

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In my opinion, I would say anywhere between the southern coast of Florida up to South Carolina is still a possibility right now.

[1900hurricane]

I remember when there were strong +SSTAs in the region where Dorian is likely to track, luckily they have come down some

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b6101102cae8072602dfc55d63f407de03833ed45421ce653c6621a108db4dbe.png

I don't know the answer since I haven't been following them that closely, but this is a question that may be worth asking. With anomalies coming down, does that actually correlate to sea surface temperatures decreasing or is it more of a sign of the average increasing and actual sea surface temperatures remaining constant?

[Patrick99]

Yes do it ASAP. The crowds will be out tonight.

Now where is that post from this morning that said a SFL Tv met was sounding the all clear????

Places are already running out of water or limiting it here in the north Broward area on up.

Also a good time to remind people that the stuff that comes out of the faucet is also clean water now, so fill jugs and bottles now to your hearts content. No crowds and relatively free.

Yeah, I always fill up a few 32oz jugs in addition to the bottled water I have, just in case. It requires very little effort and cost.

[jaxfladude]

I am pretty sure the state emergency officials are gathering now on when to start evacuations. We should be hearing about this in very soon, given the latest developments.

Fellow Jacksonville Florida metro poster, what's your gut feeling about our immediate area effects or impacts concerning Dorian???

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[Aric Dunn]

And this burst of convection should start to clear out the eye.

[Highteeld]

76FL/63SFMR

it's basically there

[AutoPenalti]

The eye should start peaking out pretty soon.

[cainjamin]

164530 1810N 06446W 8424 01516 0023 +180 //// 150037 038 063 007 05
164600 1811N 06445W 8437 01509 0054 +173 +173 146062 076 063 016 00
164630 1812N 06444W 8458 01500 0080 +163 +163 136070 075 062 032 03

Unflagged 63kt SMFR AND 76kt FL. If Dorian isn't a hurricane right now, it's very very close.

[Aric Dunn]

And that recon pass confirms we have a hurricane.

Pressure maybe 999.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I remember when there were strong +SSTAs in the region where Dorian is likely to track, luckily they have come down some

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b6101102cae8072602dfc55d63f407de03833ed45421ce653c6621a108db4dbe.png

remember that is the anomaly map. It is showing the difference of temps compared to normal. Those "lighter colors" aren't saying the water is cool, just that it may be a little cooler than the normal bathwater. i.e. 90 degrees instead of 92! lol

[tolakram]

[1900hurricane]

76 kt at 850 mb extrapolates to 64.6 kt, in good agreement with the 63 kt SFMR. I'd go 65 kt at 18Z.

[KWT]

164530 1810N 06446W 8424 01516 0023 +180 //// 150037 038 063 007 05
164600 1811N 06445W 8437 01509 0054 +173 +173 146062 076 063 016 00
164630 1812N 06444W 8458 01500 0080 +163 +163 136070 075 062 032 03

Unflagged 63kt SMFR AND 76kt FL. If Dorian isn't a hurricane right now, it's very very close.

Given its clearly on an organising trend, and the fact that both figures are basically at the cusp of an upgrade anyway, they will pull the trigger for a hurricane by the next advisory.

[StPeteMike]

Definitely a hurricane and probably closer to 80 mph than just at the cutoff to be labeled one. Which I think means an earlier than forecasted hurricane and stronger than expected.

[SoupBone]

https://i.imgur.com/8a0VVYI.gif

Maybe it's just the way the image loop is setup, but that looks like it's headed to San Juan.

[Highteeld]

Definitely a hurricane and probably closer to 80 mph than just at the cutoff to be labeled one. Which I think means an earlier than forecasted hurricane and stronger than expected.

This could have implications on the long term intensity forecasts if this continues to strengthen ahead of schedule. Would bring cat 4 more on the table imo.

[northjaxpro]

I am pretty sure the state emergency officials are gathering now on when to start evacuations. We should be hearing about this in very soon, given the latest developments.

Fellow Jacksonville Florida metro poster, what's your gut feeling about our immediate area effects or impacts concerning Dorian???

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My main worry is storm surge of course in the Saint Johns River. This is a HUGE concern. Look what happened with Irma in 2017. This could be potentially catastrophic with a potential Cat 3 or higher hurricane impacting our area with Dorian. We will definitely see tropical storm force winds and possibly hurricane force winds , depending upon how close the inner core of Dorian gets to Jax metro area. Flooding rains also possible, especially Sunday into Monday as it stands right now. Don't forget about tornadoes as well, always a big problem with landfalling hurricanes. Things can and will change. Stay abreasted!!

[USTropics]

I remember when there were strong +SSTAs in the region where Dorian is likely to track, luckily they have come down some

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b6101102cae8072602dfc55d63f407de03833ed45421ce653c6621a108db4dbe.png

I don't know the answer since I haven't been following them that closely, but this is a question that may be worth asking. With anomalies coming down, does that actually correlate to sea surface temperatures decreasing or is it more of a sign of the average increasing and actual sea surface temperatures remaining constant?

The stationary frontal boundary that helped spawn Erin decreased temperatures slightly, but still looking at 29C and approaching 30C in the western Bahamas:


Enough depth to easily support a major:

[KC7NEC]

Definitely a hurricane and probably closer to 80 mph than just at the cutoff to be labeled one. Which I think means an earlier than forecasted hurricane and stronger than expected.

Agreed. I wonder if we will see a Special for an upgrade. Also with an earlier stronger storm, the models will be very interesting to see if they push a bit south.

[gatorcane]

Doesn’t stronger mean more WEST once it turns east of
Bahamas?