ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

https://i.imgur.com/8a0VVYI.gif

Maybe it's just the way the image loop is setup, but that looks like it's headed to San Juan.

It is going to be close, according to recon images I have been following.

[tolakram]

Just a few years ago 10 minute imagery was considered fast. Here's the 10 minute view showing the rapid organization. Live visible.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=100&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=12469.17578125&y=7069.04443359375

[EnnisTx]

Dorian has been a difficult storm to forecast so far:
https://i.ibb.co/PDrz9Cm/Webp-net-gifmaker-1.gif

Hurricane warnings on the last image. Did they upgrade?

Also now forecast to be a Major in the Bahamas

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/151450_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Well that escalated quickly

[StPeteMike]

Definitely a hurricane and probably closer to 80 mph than just at the cutoff to be labeled one. Which I think means an earlier than forecasted hurricane and stronger than expected.

This could have implications on the long term intensity forecasts if this continues to strengthen ahead of schedule. Would bring cat 4 more on the table imo.

That’s been around what I have expected the strength to be around landfall, high Cat 3 to a low Cat 4. Definitely not the strength I want to see, considering that I have also leaned closer to the UKMET model for movement, but the only variables affecting this storm at this moment are the trajectory of the storm and not anything to prevent it from rapidly strengthening.

[artist]

Ron DeSantis
@GovRonDeSantis
·
1h
.
@NHC_Atlantic
is forecasting that #Dorian could be a major Hurricane. We’ve been monitoring this storm with
@FLSERT
and will continue to watch closely. All Floridians on the East Coast should have 7 days of supplies, prepare their homes & follow the track closely

[MississippiWx]

Dorian is becoming quite a beautiful storm on visible. The islands underneath it are likely getting quite a punch. Intensifying storms are no joke.

[AdamFirst]

Charlotte Amalie on St. Thomas about to get the northern semi-circle of the circulation center - likely some of the strongest conditions are in this band.

[EnnisTx]

Hurricane warnings on the last image. Did they upgrade?

Also now forecast to be a Major in the Bahamas

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/151450_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Well that escalated quickly

Sister in law is about 30 miles inland from where it is forecast to make landfall.

[SoupBone]

https://i.imgur.com/8a0VVYI.gif

Maybe it's just the way the image loop is setup, but that looks like it's headed to San Juan.

It is going to be close, according to recon images I have been following.

If so, the Sierra de Luquillo mountains are right there at nearly 3600 feet high.

[Highteeld]

nrn eyewall moving ashore; TIST should have good obs

https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/TIST.html

[hohnywx]

Definitely a hurricane and probably closer to 80 mph than just at the cutoff to be labeled one. Which I think means an earlier than forecasted hurricane and stronger than expected.

Agreed. I wonder if we will see a Special for an upgrade. Also with an earlier stronger storm, the models will be very interesting to see if they push a bit south.

Doubtful. There is another advisory coming at 2 PM ET.

[USTropics]

Maybe it's just the way the image loop is setup, but that looks like it's headed to San Juan.

It is going to be close, according to recon images I have been following.

If so, the Sierra de Luquillo mountains are right there at nearly 3600 feet high.

The LLC is easily trackable on radar, it'd have to head almost due west from its current location to hit Puerto Rico:

[hohnywx]

It is going to be close, according to recon images I have been following.

If so, the Sierra de Luquillo mountains are right there at nearly 3600 feet high.

The LLC is easily trackable on radar, it'd have to head almost due west from its current location to hit Puerto Rico:
https://i.imgur.com/yMGR9Wc.jpg

Agree. What I've been following looks to pass Puerto Rico to the east no question.

[jaxfladude]

Ron DeSantis
@GovRonDeSantis
·
1h
.
@NHC_Atlantic
is forecasting that #Dorian could be a major Hurricane. We’ve been monitoring this storm with
@FLSERT
and will continue to watch closely. All Floridians on the East Coast should have 7 days of supplies, prepare their homes & follow the track closely

Fellow Floridians it has officially begun. Getting tired of these systems messing around with our state and their nasty impacts.

[Evil Jeremy]

And to think that some people were still suggesting dissipation yesterday...

[Aric Dunn]

We have a warm spot.. i repeat we have a warm spot lol

[tolakram]

835
URNT12 KNHC 281717
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052019
A. 28/16:42:40Z
B. 18.05 deg N 064.89 deg W
C. 850 mb 1431 m
D. 1000 mb
E. 160 deg 9 kt
F. OPEN N
G. C20
H. 38 kt
I. 206 deg 9 nm 16:39:00Z
J. 310 deg 31 kt
K. 217 deg 4 nm 16:40:30Z
L. 60 kt
M. 046 deg 13 nm 16:46:30Z
N. 146 deg 76 kt
O. 046 deg 11 nm 16:46:00Z
P. 16 C / 1527 m
Q. 20 C / 1522 m
R. 17 C / NA
S. 12345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
U. AF309 0905A DORIAN OB 29
MAX FL WIND 76 KT 046 / 11 NM 16:46:00Z
;

[Highteeld]

231 feet up, but still

[hohnywx]

And to think that some people were still suggesting dissipation yesterday...

Including some meteorologists...thankfully, it should not have an impact on people's preparations as there is still a few days to get things in order.

[psyclone]

And to think that some people were still suggesting dissipation yesterday...

Guilty. I really thought it was a possible solution although not most likely.