ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheProfessor]

I was not expecting to wake up to Dorian looking like this. Wow.

[Highteeld]

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm going to have to make a determination by the end of today regarding shutters. At this point it's a coinflip for me, but if ECMWF shifts closer and the trend continues at 18z, looks like I'm opening up the toolshed tomorrow.

[StormingB81]

Watching from Brevard County...all stocked up and ready to go!

[AtlanticWind]

And to think that some people were still suggesting dissipation yesterday...

Those IDIOTS! Well, it did nearly fall apart...

It goes to show how difficult Hurricane forecasting is .
The system surviving the dry air was a tough call.

[galaxy401]

Officially a hurricane now!

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

...DORIAN BECOMES A HURRICANE NEAR ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...
...MULTIPLE OBSERVATIONS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN ST. THOMAS...

[EquusStorm]

Personal weather station at Limestone Beach reporting hurricane force sustained wind and gusts over 100 https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KCHARLOT2

[zhukm29]

Stewart and his initial intensity forecast that "was above all model guidance but still could be conservative" in fact turned out to be conservative. Kudos to him for trusting his judgment over model runs that were consistently dissipating Dorian over the Caribbean. The people at the NHC are some of the best in their field for a reason.

[Kazmit]

Making landfall on St. Thomas right now according to the NHC.

[northjaxpro]

Official: Dorian, the season's second hurricane classified in the North Atlantic basin. Earlier than anticipated. Here we go folks!!

[CyclonicFury]

Big model bust from the GFS and ECMWF. Forecasted dissipation when in reality we have a hurricane threatening the US Virgin Islands.

[TallyTracker]

I see we have Hurricane Dorian now.

A note on the wind observations. It is a great example how the winds increase with height. I expect those winds will be pulled to the surface in the coming hours.

[cjrciadt]

Personal weather station at Limestone Beach reporting hurricane force sustained wind and gusts over 100 https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KCHARLOT2

Up to 107 mph gusts atm

[Aric Dunn]

But i thought august was going to be dead and nothing can survive the eastern Caribbean surrounded by exxxxtreeemely dry air shear will be too much in carribean this time of year.. lol

[ScottNAtlanta]

And to think that some people were still suggesting dissipation yesterday...

Those IDIOTS! Well, it did nearly fall apart...

Only in hand grenades and horseshoes buddy...

...and nuclear bombs (I'll leave everyone to ponder that one in the silence of your own space)

[northjaxpro]

But i thought august was going to be dead and nothing can survive the eastern Caribbean surrounded by exxxxtreeemely dry air shear will be too much in carribean this time of year.. lol

We are ending August with 3 named storms. Yeah, the North Atlantic basin has awakened from its long summer slumber indeed!!

[ObsessedMiami]

Those IDIOTS! Well, it did nearly fall apart...

Only in hand grenades and horseshoes buddy...

...and nuclear bombs (I'll leave everyone to ponder that one in the silence of your own space)

Hmmm Perhaps thats being discussed as we speak..... No, seriously, everyone take care along the Florida Coast.

[crownweather]

Those IDIOTS! Well, it did nearly fall apart...

Only in hand grenades and horseshoes buddy...

...and nuclear bombs (I'll leave everyone to ponder that one in the silence of your own space)

[galaxy401]

It seems that center reformation to the north yesterday morning was the game changer for Dorian as not only did it find a better environment but it also helped it avoid most of the land.

[Aric Dunn]

The eye starting to pop out on IR