ATL: DORIAN - Models

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Highteeld
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1661 Postby Highteeld » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:13 pm

something to keep in mind here... the euro has 997 mb at hour 42 (36 hours from now), when obs now are showing 997 mb.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1662 Postby caneseddy » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:13 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Holy crap, that ridge! :eek:


Have a bad feeling for this run....
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1663 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:14 pm

Florida has been socked with a lot of rain this summer, wouldn't surprise me if it can maintain Cat 2+ going across Florida like the HWRF shows.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1664 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:16 pm

Dorian is not waiting around for the models to get inputs- just intensified at least 38 maybe 48 hours faster. That makes all the 12Z runs pretty far off as to pinpointing landfall 4 days from now. 18z hopefully will have better initialization
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1665 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:17 pm

96hr...center on Grand Bahama Island, barely WNW

Looks like he's heading toward Jupiter Inlet or in that area
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1666 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:17 pm

At 96 hours Euro has the ridge oriented in a way it may slam into South Florida
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1667 Postby Highteeld » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:18 pm

BensonTCwatcher wrote:Dorian is not waiting around for the models to get inputs- just intensified at least 38 maybe 48 hours faster. That makes all the 12Z runs pretty far off as to pinpointing landfall 4 days from now. 18z hopefully will have better initialization

yep. makes the hwrf solution not look as crazy
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1668 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:19 pm

Has definitely shifted south more about 50 to 100 miles .. which was expected.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1669 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:19 pm

gatorcane wrote:At 96 hours Euro has the ridge oriented in a way it may slam into South Florida


It's also moving notably slower... Giving more time for the ridge to fill back after Erin.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1670 Postby chris_fit » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:20 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1671 Postby chris_fit » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:21 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1672 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:21 pm

Slamming the Abaco Islands once again in 96hrs.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1673 Postby stormhunter7 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:21 pm

definitely left of previous run with the latest 12z EURO through 96hrs. Landfall in south Florida
Last edited by stormhunter7 on Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1674 Postby chris_fit » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:21 pm

Well Crap... now I'm seriously considering boarding up on the west coast south of Tampa
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1675 Postby HDGator » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:22 pm


:( I'm not liking this trend. This is about the worst setup for S FL
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1676 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:22 pm

Looks like it went due west from 96 to 120. Would love to see a high res plot to see its motion.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1677 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:23 pm

The EURO will get people from SE Texas to the Panhandle puckering.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1678 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:23 pm

The Straits are not out of the question.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1679 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:24 pm

chris_fit wrote:https://i.imgur.com/A2nie7I.png


And THAT is the sound of my shutters going up.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#1680 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:24 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Slamming the Abaco Islands once again in 96hrs.
slamming palm beach gardens :eek:
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