ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

Praying for the islands

[cycloneye]

It seems that center reformation to the north yesterday morning was the game changer for Dorian as not only did it find a better environment but it also helped it avoid most of the land.

Thankfully for Puerto Rico that was the big moment but let's hope the other islands get out of this in a good way.

[galaxy401]

Looks like heavy rain bands are now starting to set up around the eyewall on radar.

[AdamFirst]

Looks like heavy rain bands are now starting to set up around the eyewall on radar.

East side of St. Thomas is getting hammered right now.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like heavy rain bands are now starting to set up around the eyewall on radar.

East side of St. Thomas is getting hammered right now.

...and lets not forget that they took as big of a hit as PR so this is really bad news for St Thomas.

[GCANE]

Nothing really out there for this not to go to Cat 2.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Afternoon all,

I was waiting and hoping for the best, but can no longer wait. Will head down to Key Largo to start securing everything, take the boat of the davits and hope for the best being a bit further south. Then take care of things here in Miami, where ever this storm ends up everyone be safe.

[ronjon]

But i thought august was going to be dead and nothing can survive the eastern Caribbean surrounded by exxxxtreeemely dry air shear will be too much in carribean this time of year.. lol

We are ending August with 3 named storms. Yeah, the North Atlantic basin has awakened from its long summer slumber indeed!!

Ok Aric now you're rubbing salt in some wounds....Master Po said..one must be a humble scientist....

[northjaxpro]

Afternoon all,

I was waiting and hoping for the best, but can no longer wait. Will head down to Key Largo to start securing everything, take the boat of the davits and hope for the best being a bit further south. Then take care of things here in Miami, where ever this storm ends up everyone be safe.

You too. Be very safe out there!

[Aric Dunn]

The eye on radar has shrunk by half in the last hour.. its deepening faster.

[GCANE]

The eye on radar has shrunk by half in the last hour.. its deepening faster.

Saw that too.
Too bad recon left.
Cirrus outflow from those hot towers are obscuring seeing any type of eye.

[SoupBone]

But i thought august was going to be dead and nothing can survive the eastern Caribbean surrounded by exxxxtreeemely dry air shear will be too much in carribean this time of year.. lol

We are ending August with 3 named storms. Yeah, the North Atlantic basin has awakened from its long summer slumber indeed!!

Ok Aric now you're rubbing salt in some wounds....Master Po said..one must be a humble scientist....

Aric ate crow for Barry, we've all been there, even the less knowledgeable.

[jlauderdal]

the nhc will have too come south now, 75-100 miles based on that ridge as depicted in the euro...they didnt do much at 11 but they have too much respect for the euro to not adjust accordingly...all interests from the cape to key largo you better prepare for a landfalling major, keys you are in play too...that gfs nonsense from yesterday is a faded memory

[GCANE]

The eye on radar has shrunk by half in the last hour.. its deepening faster.

Saw that too.
Too bad recon left.
Cirrus outflow from those hot towers are obscuring seeing any type of eye.

If I didn't know better, looks like a moat on radar.

[abajan]

High MSLP environment skews the pressure-wind ratio.

If this were in the Bahamas pressures would be lower.

Exactly some people in here just looking at the higher than normal pressures in the storm and assuming Dorian isn't that strong. You have to look at the environment its embedded in. If it's in an environment where the ambient pressure is higher than normal the storm doesn't need as low a pressure to reach a certain strength.

Exactly. It's just like the 26°C sea surface temperature threshold. Hurricanes can form in colder waters than that If the upper levels are cold enough (as we saw not so many years ago - I don't recall the name of the hurricane). It's all relative. The 26°C thing is just a rule of thumb.

[catskillfire51]

The eye on radar has shrunk by half in the last hour.. its deepening faster.

Saw that too.
Too bad recon left.
Cirrus outflow from those hot towers are obscuring seeing any type of eye.

If I didn't know better, looks like a moat on radar.

A moat? Thats a first for me?

[Evil Jeremy]

12z ECMWF might force NHC's hand regarding a decent shift south with the 5pm cone.

[jdjaguar]

Just wrapped up initial prep, thinking I was a day ahead of everybody else.

This is NOT THE CASE. (thankfully)

People are taking this threat seriously, and water, batteries are running low or completely out at some locations in the Jax Beach area.

Filled up the gas cans before the lines form tonight/tomorrow.

The problem with Florida is that there really is nowhere to evacuate to, except away from the coast to guard against surge.

Just too many people, and limited roads.

Hoping Dorian is not "Son of Dora", but preparing as if he were.

Stay safe everyone. We should have a clearer indication 24 hours from now of the eventual landfall point.

[BYG Jacob]

High MSLP environment skews the pressure-wind ratio.

If this were in the Bahamas pressures would be lower.

Exactly some people in here just looking at the higher than normal pressures in the storm and assuming Dorian isn't that strong. You have to look at the environment its embedded in. If it's in an environment where the ambient pressure is higher than normal the storm doesn't need as low a pressure to reach a certain strength.

Exactly. It's just like the 26°C sea surface temperature threshold. Hurricanes can form in colder waters than that If the upper levels are cold enough (as we saw not so many years ago - I don't recall the name of the hurricane). It's all relative. The 26°C thing is just a rule of thumb.

Álex BTW

[SoupBone]

The EURO is going to have people all the way from SE Texas through the Panhandle puckering, a la Katrina, Andrew, etc. (Disclaimer: I'm not at all saying this will be an event like either, but people will still compare them).