ATL: DORIAN - Models

[perk]

The EURO will get people from SE Texas to the Panhandle puckering.

Yeah at hour 144 that ridge is building back in.

[Aric Dunn]

Bombing out and heading towards michael territory.. not good.

[stormlover2013]

well one thing to take from this is we better pay attention to the ICON short term, Long term is still anybody guess

[Buck]

It looks like the models keep Dorian a relatively small storm... but that makes me ask the question... do models usually have a lot of precision/accuracy in storm size?

[stormlover2013]

Euro Ensembles going to be really interesting

[Steve]

168hours - Euro has it coming up toward the Western Panhandle as the trough in Quebec is pulling out. This recurves immediately or moves west again or stalls. I'm showing it at 28.34N, 85.82W. Looks to landfall somewhere between Panama City, FL and Boothville, LA unless it misses the connection. All bets are off then.

[SunnyThoughts]

How strong does it look at hour 168 in the gulf? cat 2?

[hohnywx]

Well I think it's a safe bet NHC will be adjusting their track south in days 4-5 at the 5 pm advisory.

Or that Cone will get a little wider.

That's not how the cone works - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

[chris_fit]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1166781749050765313

[Aric Dunn]

Weakening as it approaches panhandle.

[Steve]

Just offshore of Pensacola at 192hr

[toad strangler]

Classic Florida Major landfall track and certainly possible DOUBLE major landfall.

[SFLcane]

Props to Aric! Good call man on westward shifts

[chris_fit]

[TheProfessor]

Goodness, the 12z Euro would be quite horrible if that track verified.

[SunnyThoughts]

I"m about to be sick...literally. Although I know things will probably change between now and next week. But geeze, that looks strong...at Both landfalls

[got ants?]

Watching weather channel now and they are still showing it (the cone) between Miami and Charleston. Being thru many hurricanes in my 60 yrs living in south florida, I get the feeling many are going to discount that as a more northerly landfall, more likely in the center of the cone, which would put it hundreds of miles north of us. Many will wait to the last minute to prepare. Not good and I wish the WC was showing the intel that reasons why this storn could very well come further south.

[Aric Dunn]

Props to Aric! Good call man on westward shifts

Fyi.. probably a few more to come.

The upper low to its nw is weakening and moving out of the way faster.. soo yeah.

[jlauderdal]

While the hubbabaloo was going on with the EURO, the 12z NAVGEM shows a Palm Beach County impact with a WNW trajectory directly over Lake Okeechobee

navgem has been very consistent on a south florida strike, gatorcane posted a couple of days ago about the navgem and yesterday